U of P engineering grad dumps on statistical measurements

[Chad ochoseis]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/21/opinion/21glanville-leadoff.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=opinion

Former Speedy Leadoff Hitter Doug Glanville rushes to the defense of Jacoby Ellsbury (and also Doug Glanville, though at least he's upfront about it).

I'm inclined to agree with him. This isn't an argument about "intangibles" - it's an argument about the limits of the statistics that are commonly used today. There's no reason why statistics can't be compiled that would show that the defense is more likely to make an error when an Ellsbury (or a healthy Reyes) is on base than not. Or that fast players are more likely to reach base on error than slow players. Etc. Etc. But they aren't, and the lack of such statistics means that speed could be undervalued.

All that being said, though, .326 is still a pretty poor OBP for a leadoff hitter.

[Guest attgig]

good article. guess it makes you think about a healthy jose, and how that translates.

[metirish]

Interesting read , makes me wonder about a guy like Francoeur , that balance between telling him to be patient and letting his natural aggressiveness come through.

[metsmarathon]

i didnt get that he was dumping on statistics. his arguments related to things which certainly could be measured, were someone so inclined. does ellsbury cause an increase in defensive errors when at bat? does he cause it when on the basepaths? does he reach base by beating out a double play (which still means he created an out, and erased the lead runner, which isn't terribly good)?

he's arguing that there's more to leading off than just obp, and, more importantly, that by trying to get a guy to take more walks, you may end up with a guy who gets fewer hits.

[ashie62]

reminds me of the fallacy of the game winning RBI

[metsmarathon]

how so?

[RealityChuck]

reminds me of the fallacy of the game winning RBI[/quote:1hd1d386]It's not a fallacy -- it's just something that can't be easily quantified or defined. But what is a walk-off if not a game winning rbi?

[ashie62]

how so?[/quote:3pyotodv]

If a stat can be subjective, the Game winning RBI was one..Who says that the RBI that put a team ahead for the final time won the ? It's arbitrary and or selective..Probably why MLB dropped it

As far as Walk of HR's and such, I don't beleieve that is a stat, just something that fans add to the AB