keeper quandry

[metsmarathon]

ok, i'm in a custom espn points league, wherein we have 10 keepers. i won the league this year, but that's not terribly germane.

its a 10 team league.

i've got as definite keepers:

mark teixeira
josh hamilton
johan santana
brandon webb
dice-k

and likely keepers:
carlos marmol (assuming he's closing)
brandon phillips

here's my problem...
i've got garret atkins and kevin youkilis. both are good 1b/3b's, and both are slated to perform rather well next year. half the projections i've seen, including espn, seem to think that youk will have the better season next year. but half of 'em show atkins as the better play, including pecota and marcel.

in our league, we don't have to have all 10 keepers chosen - open keeper spots turn into earlier draft opportunities. and i'm weighing, whether to keep both players, relegating one to a utility role, or do i risk losing one before my chance to pick comes up in the draft?

and if i only keep one, which do you feel is the better keep?

Total Bases (TB) 1
Walks (BB) 1
Runs Scored ® 1
Runs Batted In (RBI) 1
Stolen Bases (SB) 2
Strikeouts (K) -1

above are the current batting settings

[A Boy Named Seo]

I'd keep Youk over Atkins.

Pretty similar dudes, but I'd think Youk would be a slight better play, given your stats, particularly walks.

Shandler's Baseball Forecaster likes both to regress, but more so Atkins, citing his declining walk rate, contact %, and his expected power based on their formula.

Good luck, man. Sounds like a cool league.

[nymr83]

Taking points away for strikeouts sucks, so does 2 points for a steal (and they don't even take away for CS??), Phillips should be a definite keeper under that system.

Keep Youkilis over Atkins, Atkins is always in trade rumors and woe be to his owners when he leaves Coors Field
Atkins home: .337/.394/.527
Atkins away: .260/.328/.424

[metsmarathon]

in the past, points were taken away for CS, but that's changing this year in an effort to boost offensive production. in the past, pitching was scoring a bit too many points relative to hitting (and i dominated in pitching)