Let's Look at Heilman

[Guest AG/DC]

Aaron was effective in his first inning yesterday and next to useless in his second. I don't know why, and neither do you, most likely. But maybe, with the wealth of data provided by Gameday and the wisdom of the crowd, we can glean some insight.

Let's look at him pitch-by-pitch last night.

Inning	Outs	Batter	Bats	Pitch #	Count	Type	Speed	Break	PfX	Location	Result
7	0	Erstad	LH	1	1	Fastball	94	9"	11"	Outside half, above knees	Called Strike
7	0	Erstad	LH	2	2	Fastball	93	8"	10"	Outside, above knees	Ball
7	0	Erstad	LH	3	3	Change	84	10"	10"	Outside half	Foul
7	0	Erstad	LH	4	4	Fastball	95	7"	13"	Down the pipe	Foul
7	0	Erstad	LH	5	5	Fastball	95	7"	13"	Inside	Ball
7	0	Erstad	LH	6	6	Change	85	9"	9"	Outside corner, just above knees	Line single RF
7	0	Quintero	RH	1	7	Fastball	95	7"	10"	Outside, above knees	Called Strike
7	0	Quintero	RH	2	8	Fastball	94	8"	12"	Inside, at letters	Bunt to P, Runner to 2b
7	1	Blum	LH	1	9	Fastball	94	8"	13"	Away	Ball
7	1	Blum	LH	2	10	Change	84	9"	13"	At Knees	Swinging Strike
7	1	Blum	LH	3	11	Fastball	95	8"	12"	Outside, above knees	GO to P, Runner Out, Batter to 1b
7	2	Matsui	LH	1	12	Fastball	95	9"	15"	Low	Ball
7	2	Matsui	LH	2	13	Fastball	95	8"	13"	Low, Outside Half	Swinging Strike
7	2	Matsui	LH	3	14	Fastball	95	7"	11"	Letters	Called Strike
7	2	Matsui	LH	4	15	Fastball	95	7"	11"	Above belt, away off plate	Swinging Strike
8	0	Tejada	RH	1	16	Curve	82	11"	7"	Center, above belt	Called Strike
8	0	Tejada	RH	2	17	Fastball	93	7"	10"	Inside corner, crotch high	Ground 1b, LF
8	0	Berkman	LH	1	18	Fastball	93	7"	12"	Middle	Long Ground Rule 2B, Runner to 3b
8	0	Lee	RH	1	19	Int. Ball	67	12"	9"	High and away	Ball
8	0	Lee	RH	2	20	Int. Ball	66	12"	7"	High and away	Ball
8	0	Lee	RH	3	21	Int. Ball	65	13"	11"	High and away	Ball
8	0	Lee	RH	4	22	Int. Ball	66	12"	10"	High and away	Ball, BB
8	0	Pence	RH	1	23	Sinker	83	11"	7"	Crotch-high, off plate outside	Swinging Strike
8	0	Pence	RH	2	24	Slider	83	10"	5"	Outside, above knees	Ball
8	0	Pence	RH	3	25	Fastball	94	7"	13"	Inside corner, at knees	GO to 1b, runner out at plate
8	1	Loretta	RH	1	26	Slider	84	10"	4"	Low and away	Ball
8	1	Loretta	RH	2	27	Fastball	94	8"	12"	Inside Corner, Below Belt	HR to LF

A little help with terms.

Speed: This is starting velocity. Termination velocity (when it reaches the front of the plate) is typically five mph slower or so.
Break: Measures how much the ball curved compared to a straight line.
PFX: Measures the movement of the pitch against gravity.

No, I'm not that clear on the distinction on those last two. I'm guessing that low numbers in both of these departments is a hanger, but that's not necesarily a safe assumption --- at best, an oversimplification.

A couple of things jump out at me:

1. His fastball was 94-95 in his first inning, but dropped to 93 in his second inning. Does that make a difference? I have no idea, but Tejada's single and Berkman's long double both came on 93-mph fastballs.
   
   
2. He muscled up to Matsui --- throwing four 95-mph fastballs. Maybe he overdid it and gassed himself a bit.
   
   
3. His change sat 10 mph slower than his fastball. Is that enough of a difference.
   
   
4. He apparently mixed it up with Pence, opening with two pitches outside of his usual repertoire. This could suggest that he was losing confidence in his fastall and/or his slider, or that the stringer that was entering the data mis-labeled two of his change-ups. Or maybe the data recorder cameras decide what kind of pitch it was.
   
   
5. Both the double and the homer were on pitches that were up --- one that was at the belt and one just below it.

We've seen a lot more of this guy than Dan Warthan has. He needs our help.

[Guest AG/DC]

Let's look at Wagner.

[Guest Number 6]

I`m happy to be in a place where I don`t have to look at either of them.

[Farmer Ted]

I'd rather look at his wife. Him, not so much.

[Guest AG/DC]

See, youse bitches should've helped me figure him out this weekend.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

What can you do at this point? Could the possibly feel comfortable bringing him into a close game? Would Muniz or anyone else in NO do worse?

[Frayed Knot]

I think it's been shown that just about EVERYONE on the staff CAN and HAS done worse (or at least as bad).
After all, it's not like Sanchez, Smith, Schoeneweis, Feliciano, etc. haven't also blown up at critical times. I think we just expect more from Heilman and aren't getting it.

I don't know what to suggest at this point.

[seawolf17]

I suggest we trade him to Europe.

[smg58]

I think Heilman just pitched his way out of seeing any more meaningful situations this year, if he didn't pitch himself off the team entirely. I don't know what's wrong, but it took five days in August to completely cancel out his July. What a mess. I've been willing to defend Heilman, and certainly the Heilman of the previous three seasons would be a much needed asset to this team, but I can't see him righting himself to the point where I'd trust him the rest of the way.

[Guest AG/DC]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: What can you do at this point? Could the possibly feel comfortable bringing him into a close game? Would Muniz or anyone else in NO do worse?

That's two "can't do worse"-es out of you today. We can and will with that attitude.

Watch Heilman closely. There's an answer in there. Is his change not going for strikes? Are his fastballs up? Have they lost their movement?

There's a key. And remember, you've seen more of him than his pitching coach.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

smg58 wrote: I think Heilman just pitched his way out of seeing any more meaningful situations this year, if he didn't pitch himself off the team entirely. I don't know what's wrong, but it took five days in August to completely cancel out his July. What a mess. I've been willing to defend Heilman, and certainly the Heilman of the previous three seasons would be a much needed asset to this team, but I can't see him righting himself to the point where I'd trust him the rest of the way.

Really? I mean this whole thing only happened because the rest of the candidates all fell away and he's asked to carry it every night: 3 innings, 2 innings, close games, 4-run leads, whatever.

He's not been right - too many HRs all year long and seems to lose his concentration too often and all but I can't see this stretch as poor as it is a trough he can't get out of given any support. Tonight his mates had his back and the 3 he allowed are immaterial.

[nymr83]

i was at the game tonight and fwelt like the mets were gonna lose as soon as heilman walked the leadoff man. and if i were the manager [u:e7768ed8c4]i would have pulled him out of the game right there[/u:e7768ed8c4]. a 4 pitch walk with a 4 run lead is unacceptable. the 3-0 and probably even 2-0 pitches should have been right down the pipe if necessary.

[Guest AG/DC]

Feelings are fine, but they ain't facts. The Mets didn't lose

You can call something unacceptable, but that won't stop it from happening. It's a tough job, but a Manuel (or a Randolph) is tasked with winning today and finding the right calculus to keep winning. Sometimes, that means keeping your cool with a four run lead and trying to let a guy work a guy through his adversity.

[Benjamin Grimm]

There's no way I'd pull a pitcher for walking a leadoff batter with a four-run lead. That smells like panic, and it's what, to me, was the last straw with Willie Randolph when he did it with Feliciano against Florida last September.

[Guest AG/DC]

Thank you.

[Farmer Ted]

You could even hear the frustration from Ron Darling last night..."He's not giving up hits, he's giving up bombs!" Nine jacks off Heilman this year.

I'm not sure Davey Johnson would even want Heilman on the Olympic team right now.

[Frayed Knot]

Let's avert our eyes from Heilman.

[Guest AG/DC]

On the other hand, Davey Johnson sailed was willling to risk sailing HMS 1985 right into the rocks trying to redeem Doug Sisk back into the pitcher he knew Sisk could be, rather than agree with Cashen's plan to go get a starting pitcher, which would have freed Aguilera up for bullpen. A manager has to be willling to take a lot of heat standing by a pitcher when the boobirds want to flay him.

The Mets have a TBA start coming up. Yogi Berra might throw Tug McGraw a start in such a situtation. Maybe Manuel should reach back to the old school and do the same.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Except that Tug is dead at the present time.

[Guest AG/DC]

Wow. Shooting down my Yogi strategy with a Yogi-ism. Well played, sir.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Manuel saying today that it's the lead-off walk -- not the single and the bomb -- that will cost Heilman the closer's spot.

But Kunz in there. He can't do, err, closing is what he did in NO.

[Guest AG/DC]

Well, the single was butt. That was his teammates failing to pick him up as surely as he failed them.

[Guest AG/DC]

Pedro, by comparison, has a fastball sitting around 88 tonight, ranging from 86-89, with his change coming in at 77-79, so he has the same 10-mph difference as Heilman, but maybe the slower velocity is giving him a better break. His changeup break seems to be 11-14" while Heilman's was 9-10". He also has his curve coming in at 71.

Pedro's first pitch for the homer was a neither-here-nor-there 84-mph gimme down the middle.

[Guest attgig]

btw...

] Q: What is the PFX value? A: The "Pitch-f/x" value is currently defined as the measurement of the distance between the location of the actual pitch thrown over the plate, and the calculated location of a ball thrown by the pitcher in the same way, with no spin; this is the value we provided in Enhanced Gameday last season as "Break". The new Break value, which we feel is more appropriate for the common understanding of the term, is defined as the measurement of the greatest distance between the trajectory of the pitch at any point between the release point and the front of home plate, and the straight line path from the release point and the front of home plate. By this definition, a Barry Zito curveball will have a much greater Break value than a Brad Penny fastball.