The Gilded Fernando Martinez

[Guest AG/DC]

Seems like the broad agreement of neutral observers had Gomez as the better prospect for the last two years. What has happened that has changed that, if only in the Mets' eyes?

[Gwreck]

AG/DC wrote: Seems like the broad agreement of neutral observers had Gomez as the better prospect for the last two years. What has happened that has changed that, if only in the Mets' eyes?

He's several years younger, and Gomez looked lost trying to hit major-league breaking balls?

[Guest AG/DC]

Well, he's always been several years younger. And nobody was expecting Gomez to come up and be Albert Pujols, particularly after suffering an injury in his rookie year. I daresay nobody is expecting Martinez to either.

[nymr83]

AG/DC wrote: Seems like the broad agreement of neutral observers had Gomez as the better prospect for the last two years. What has happened that has changed that, if only in the Mets' eyes?

Twins fans seem to be saying the same thing- Martinez is the guy they wanted according to that message board that was linked int hat other post

[Frayed Knot]

AG/DC wrote: Seems like the broad agreement of neutral observers had Gomez as the better prospect for the last two years. What has happened that has changed that, if only in the Mets' eyes?

I don't think Gomez was really ever rated all that highly by the baseball world in general (40s - 60s on most prospect lists last winter). Only Met fans seemed to conjure up an image of him as a top prospect and even then only briefly early last summer.
What he had going for him was the raw speed/tools and a "projectable" body. Martinez, being younger/further from the majors, simply did have enough of a track record to go on at this point last year.

Current consensus (like any such thing really exists) sees Gomez as the better OFer long-term but holds out a lot more hope for Fernando's bat.

[Guest AG/DC]

Frayed Knot wrote: Only Met fans seemed to conjure up an image of him as a top prospect and even then only briefly early last summer.

See, now you've got the jerk store going again. I never said nothing about no top prospect. Only that he had been rated more highly in the Mets system by objective sources than Martinez. And he had.

[Frayed Knot]

Sure, mainly because Martinez was a teenager w/not much more than a partial season of Low-A ball on his resume at this point last year. Too raw and too far away for most to even consider where his station in the pecking order should be.

What changed is that Martinez held his own at AA despite being young, being injured, and skipping a grade to get there.
Prior to that it wasn't really a case of: Gomez better / Martinez worse.
More like: Gomez = promising; Martinez = ummm, not sure yet so let's stick him down the list until we see more

[Theoldmole]

I always had the impression that Martinez was rated with more upside potential.

[RealityChuck]

That's what I've always seen: that Gomez was clearly better now, but Martinez has more potential.

Of course, there is no greater curse than great potential (especially in baseball).

[Guest AG/DC]

When somebody is atop a team's prospect rankings, it's never about right now, but always about who has the best chance for the better career.

For what it's worth, it hasn't been unanimous. Baseball America bumped Martinez ahead a year ago: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263075.html

[Frayed Knot]

Pre-season prospect rankings from last year:

Baseball Prospectus: Fernando Martinez = 18th (on their top-100 list)
Carlos Gomez = 34th

Baseball America: FM = 22; CG = 60

John Sickels: FM = 27; CG = 62

Hardball Times: FM = 23; CG = not in top 50

Fox Sports: FM = 8th; CG = 79th

[soupcan]

You gotta think that the Twins had a choice of what packages to take from the Mets.

They probably could've had Martinez in a package that didn't include Guerra for example.

[Guest AG/DC]

Guess I missed the passage, or I'm more than a year behind.

On edit: eighth?

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus 2008 Prospect List:

Fernando Martinez = #51
Carlos Gomez = #65

Deolis Geurra = #79


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7092

[metirish]

soup can wrote: You gotta think that the Twins had a choice of what packages to take from the Mets. They probably could've had Martinez in a package that didn't include Guerra for example.

I read that the Twins scouts project Martinez as a corner outfielder if that means anything, maybe the different packages had Gomez separated from Martinez.

[Guest attgig]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3222287
keith law

#10 overall prospect

]10 Fernando Martinez OF New York Mets TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Binghamton) 19 It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-�-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.

# 35

]35 Carlos Gomez OF Minnesota Twins TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 22 Gomez can fly and will be one of the fastest players in the majors once he is there for good. The rest of his game needs work, as his substantial tools don't translate into immediate major league success. He has a very quick bat but relies on his wrists and hands, hitting off his front foot too often and never getting his weight back to drive balls, so he makes contact but right now doesn't project to hit for power. In the field, he is more advanced, running down balls in all directions in center field and showing a 60-65 arm on the 20-80 scale. He missed most of the second half of the 2007 season due to a broken hamate bone in his hand, an injury that can linger into the following season, so his short-term projection isn't bright, but he has star potential if he is given time and instruction.

[Benjamin Grimm]

]To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.

So if he had had a healthy 2007, he'd have been a big-league regular at age 20, which would be the 2009 season. I guess this means Law is projecting Fernando as a regular in 2010 instead? (Assuming he stays healthy the next couple of years.)

If that scenario pans out, (and that's a considerable if) the Mets would just need a short-term outfielder for the 2009 season, someone to bridge the gap between Alou and Martinez.

[smg58]

He's been rushed a bit, but there's a good chance Minaya will want Martinez starting 2008 in New Orleans. He'd have to mature awfully quickly for me to think he'll be ready to patrol left field in the first CitiField game, but it appears as though that option is still being treated as a serious possibility. I think the Mets will need a one year tie-over, though.

[Frayed Knot]

That Keith Law (espn.com) and Kevin Goldstein (BP) can rank him so far apart (10th vs 51st) shows how fickle these things can be, especially so for a player so young and with such a limited track record.
Law still mentions him as a legit CF candidate. Others are much more down on his fielding instincts and knock him down a few pegs as his bat would need to be better still if he's destined to be a corner guy.

]He's been rushed a bit, but there's a good chance Minaya will want Martinez starting 2008 in New Orleans.

I hope not. Not only was he jumped past A+ to get to AA but then his AA season was cut short by hsi wrist injury. I'd start him there and not move him until he tore up the league for an extended time and maybe not even then.

]He'd have to mature awfully quickly for me to think he'll be ready to patrol left field in the first CitiField game, but it appears as though that option is still being treated as a serious possibility

2010 is plenty optimistic IMO.

[MFS62]

You're right, FK.
When scouting a young player, better judgement comes from seeing a player more than just one or two times. One example has been Martinez.
There was one seminal report on his fielding, based on one scout from one of these services watching him play the field on a very windy day. The report came back that he was a mediocre fielder, destined to be moved to a corner, or even first base.
That report was picked up by other (lazier) report orgs, without checking out his fielding for themselves. Later reports have corrected that bad report, but he still has some of the stigma attached /upgraded to him.

From what I've heard, my estimate of Martinez is that he can turn into an Al Oliver kind of player - .300 - 20 HR - 85 RBI, but with better consistent speed and defense than Al.
I'll take that.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

From Goldstein's chat (at BP):

Q: What caused Fernando Martinez's ranking to drop so much from last year? (18th down to 51st) I realize he didn't light the world on fire in Double-A, but doesn't he get some credit for holding his own there at such a young age?

Goldstein: ... ranking Martinez as the No. 51 prospect in all of baseball DOES give him credit for doing so. Lack of power and the fact that he's going to move to left field is what hurt him significantly in my eyes.

[Frayed Knot]

More stuff on Fernando Martinez and on what remains of the farm system in general from the crew at Baseball Prospectus

Fernando Martinez - OF
DOB: 10/10/88
Height/Weight: 6-1/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: .111/.200/.333 at Rookie-Level (3 G); .271/.336/.377 at Double-A (60 G)

Year In Review: Martinez is a high-ceiling outfielder, and was holding his own as an 18-year-old in Double-A before finally getting shut down with a hand contusion that was bothering him all year.

The Good: To hit .271 in Double-A when you are as old as most high school seniors is an impressive feat. Martinez has outstanding bat speed and tremendous power potential to go with a rapidly improving approach, and could develop into a middle-of-the-order force if everything falls right. He's a good athlete with average speed and a solid arm.

The Bad: Martinez is far more about what can be at this point. He puts on a show in batting practice, but he's yet to bring his power into game situations. The Mets have rushed him up through the minors, but injuries have limited him to just 139 games over the two years of his career. While he's playing center field now, his range and instincts are well short of what is needed to play the position at the big league level, and he'll move to a corner--likely before he gets to the big leagues.

Fun Fact: In 16 games batting leadoff for Binghamton, Martinez hit .343, compared to a .243 mark when he hit third.

Perfect World Projection: Scouts have varied opinions on Martinez, but there are a good number out there who see him as an impact player when he can stay healthy and develop.

Timetable: Martinez' breakneck pace through the minors will slow down finally in 2008, as he'll likely return to Double-A, but he'll nevertheless likely be the youngest player at the level. A 2009 big-league debut is a distinct possibility