Schaefer commentary

[Guest holychicken]

Nymr83 wrote: because its easier to drive in a runner on third than it is to drive in yourself.

Still, he made an incredibly smart play. He could have swung for the fences and driven himself in as well, but he looked at a situation and took advantage of a weakness in the defense to WIN the game.

I am not down-playing when Easley did, I gave them equal points (but I would argue that giving him slightly more points makes sense), but it was a smart and perfectly excuted play to win a game.

Here is the graph, BTW.

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2007-04-24&team=Mets&dh=0&season=2007

36.2% (endy swing in chance) to 48.8% (easley swing in chance).

(edit)
I changed my chavez and easley scores to more line up with the percentages here, however, they still only exhibit a .5 difference.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm not sure what's so incredibly smart about not swinging for the fences when the winning run is on third. Everybody knew a single was all that was needed.

[soupcan]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: I adjusted my Endy vote up slightly but still 300% below my man Damion. Someone please find Win Expectancy chart

If I plugged in the numbers right - when Easley came to bat the Win Expectancy (according to the Win Expectancy website) was:

games: 906
home won: 38
expectancy: 0.042

When Endy came up the WE was:

games: 389
home won: 265
expectancy: 0.681

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

4% to 68%. That's a spicy meatball.

[Guest holychicken]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: 4% to 68%. That's a spicy meatball.

He didn't increase it from 4% to 68%, he increased it from 4% to 52%. Still huge, no doubt, but certainly not 3 times, let alone 6 times, endy's 68-100% increase. (although, the WPA for the site I gave gives him 36%, not 32% and Easley about the same)

[soupcan]

The numbers are hard to ignore but I am more of a Barry Manilow type and I give Endy mucho credit for his creativity.

That being said - I'll edit my votes.

[Guest holychicken]

Edgy DC wrote: I'm not sure what's so incredibly smart about not swinging for the fences when the winning run is on third. Everybody knew a single was all that was needed.

But he didn't just try to get a single. What he did was see a weakness in the defense and exploit it with a perfectly executed bunt. THAT is what I think was the smart move.

Even a well hit ball that would be nothing more than a single can turn into an out if it is hit to the wrong place.

[nymr83]

I think those W% things can be deceiving sometimes. If Endy gets out the Mets still have a better than 50% chance to win, if Easley gets out you can put an L in the books right then and there.

[Guest Edgy DC]

holychicken wrote: But he didn't just try to get a single. What he did was see a weakness in the defense and exploit it with a perfectly executed bunt. THAT is what I think was the smart move.

Sure, but above you're praising not swinging for the fences.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Tuesday night's 12-inning win will close on Friday:

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6184

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Wednesday afternoon's loss to Florida will close some time this weekend:

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6190

[Willets Point]

Florida?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Oops. Colorado.

All 1993 expansion teams look alike to me.

[Willets Point]

All those flourescent colors in the uniform.

Topographically though I can't imagine two states more different that Colorado and Florida, at least elevation wise.

[nymr83]

I gave Franco a half point today for the great defensive play on the bunt, figured i'd mention it here for any voters who didnt see the game beacuse it won't be in the boxscore,

[Guest Iubitul]

I would give Heilman negative points for the blood pressure spike he gave me if the rules allowed for it.

[Guest GYC]

Nymr83 wrote: I gave Franco a half point today for the great defensive play on the bunt, figured i'd mention it here for any voters who didnt see the game beacuse it won't be in the boxscore,

Good call. I was watching and totally forgot about it. I'll have to edit my vote later. I'm probably going to take Heilman's 0.10 points away, just because he drives me absolutely crazy nowadays. What happened to you, Aaron?

[nymr83]

I gave Aaron nothing, all he did was come in and cause alot of trouble which Schoenweis got him out of.

edit- also, i'm still annoyed at him for not being jewish with a name like that.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You probably would have hated Elio Chacon then.

I'm mad at Aaron Heilman for not being Italian-American, born in Brooklyn, and raised on Long Island.

But I'll get over it.

[nymr83]

I'd hardly consider Chacon a jewish name, and Aaron hardly sounds italian

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

In the Schaefer thread for today's 1-0 victory over the Nationals, Frayed Knot cast the following ballot:

Heilman - 5.25
Beltran - 2.5
Franco - 0.5
Wagner - 1.0
Schoeneweis - 0.5
Reyes - 0.25

I suspect that Heilman has snuck in and stolen Maine's well deserved beer.

I post this here because Yancy does not like any actual discussion in the voting thread, since it complicates tallying the votes up when the polls close.

[Frayed Knot]

Good catch.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Thanks, Doc!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all three of the weekend games at RFK will close on Wednesday morning.

Friday's loss: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6219

Saturday's win: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6225

Sunday's win: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6230



And on Thursday, when voting for tonight's game closes, I'll be announcing the winner of the Schaefer Mets Player of the Month award for April 2007.

Tell all your friends!

[metirish]

Has voter participation been up this early season?.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's not as high as it was at the beginning of last season, but it's higher than at the end of last year, when we were down to 7 faithful voters.

We're already seeing a slight dropoff in 2007 though. We're averaging about two fewer voters per game in the second half of April as opposed to the first half. But we're still doing better than the 7 that 2006 ended with.


4/1/2007 20
4/3/2007 20
4/4/2007 18
4/6/2007 15
4/7/2007 13
4/8/2007 13
4/9/2007 16
4/11/2007 13
4/12/2007 16
4/13/2007 12
4/14/2007 11
4/17/2007 13
4/18/2007 14
4/19/2007 14
4/20/2007 12
4/21/2007 14
4/22/2007 12
4/23/2007 15
4/24/2007 17
4/25/2007 11

[Willets Point]

I've made sure to vote for every game.

[nymr83]

You will all be happy to know that David Wright no longerhas the embarassment of being lower than Joe Smith in my season rankings. Now lets see if he can pass the mighty .250 hitter Paul Loduca.

[Willets Point]

Maybe you're not giving Wright enough credit. I just tallied up my points for April and I have Wright tied for 5th which seems about right since he started off the season hitting well and has only slumped the last 10 days or so.

Reyes 31.5
Beltran 22
Green 21.5
Alou 18
Hernandez 13
Wright 13
Delgado 12
Maine 12
Valentin 12
Glavine 9.5
Perez 9.5
Smith 7.75
Castro 6.5
LoDuca 6.5
Schoeneweis 6
Sele 5.5
Chavez 5
Easley 4
Franco 4
Heilman 3.5
Feliciano 2.75
Wagner 2.5
Burgos 2
Newhan 1
Pelfrey 0.5

[nymr83]

i've got 11.5 for Wright, i've also got 28.5 for Beltran and only 24.5 for Reyes whom you are all madly in man-love with, Greena nd Alou both have 16 and change, Orlando has 18 while Maine leads all my pitchers with 20.5