2006 Crane Pool Forum Rankings Thread

[nymr83]

30 Beltran - team MVP
- - - -
29 Reyes - a good playoffs by J.R. or D.W. gets them 2nd place, since they did about the same i'll give it to reyes who showed much more improvement this year
28 Wright
27 Delgado - delgado's playoffs bump him up into the 2nd tier
- - - -
26 Glavine - i wasnt sure but i couldnt put the team's best pitcher lower than 5th on my intial rankings
25 Loduca
24 Valentin - April/May kept him below glavine and Loduca
- - - -
23 Wagner - best reliever
22 Maine - pedro/traschel started more games but given his postseason success and his regular season ERA a run better i gave him the nod over them
21 Chavez
- - - -
20 Martinez
19 Heilman
18 Oliver - very good stats tempered only by "low leverage innings"
17 Floyd - stop getting hurt!
16 Bradford
- - - -
15 Nady - would be alot higher if he wasnt traded away
14 Sanchez - likely tops Wagner if he had stayed healthy
13 Feliciano
12 Traschel - without the playoffs he probably is 3-4 higher
- - - -
11 Hernandez, O.
10 Perez, O. - the playoffs get him this high above the guys who were of little major help in the regular season, though i certainly understand people putting him lower
- - - -
9 Green - decent partial season and playoffs
8 Bannister
- - - -
7 Franco - the rest of this list is "filler"
6 Soler
5 Milledge
4 Castro
3 Pelfrey
2 Woodward
1 Tucker


well heres my first try at it. i think this year is even more of a judgment call than last, because of the problem of weighing the postseason. i may edit this upon seeing more arguments.

[nymr83]

i really feel this would get more discussion tacked to the top of the baseball forum

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

30. Beltran
29. Reyes
*
28. Wright
27. Delgado
*
26. Glavine
25. Wagner
24. LoDuca
23. Sanchez
*
22. Feliciano
21. Bradford
20. Valentin
19. Chavez
18. Heilman
*
17. Maine
16. OHernandez
15. Nady
14. PMartinez
13. Oliver
12. Floyd
11. Trachsel
*
10. Mota
9. Green
8. Franco
7. Bannister
6. OPerez
5. RHernandez
*
4. Tucker
3. Milledge
2. Julio
1. Woodward
*
Cuts:
1. Castro
2. Williams
3. Soler
4. Bell
5. Ring
6. Pelfrey
7. Zambrano
8. JGonzalez
9. Marerro
10. Matsui
11. AHernandez
12. Lima
13. DeFelice
14. VDiaz
15. Ledee
16. Owens
17. Fortunato
18. Stinnett

[nymr83]

Hi guys!
I'm the 2006 Mets team!
I made it to the LCS, yet people seem more interested in arguing about things that happened before Jose Reyes was alive than they do in ranking me!
please discuss me!

[Benjamin Grimm]

30 Carlos Beltran
29 José Reyes
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Tom Glavine
25 Paul Lo Duca
24 José Valentin
23 Endy Chavez
22 Orlando Hernandez
21 Billy Wagner
20 Aaron Heilman
19 John Maine
18 Pedro Martinez
17 Duaner Sanchez
16 Steve Trachsel
15 Cliff Floyd
14 Xavier Nady
13 Chad Bradford
12 Pedro Feliciano
11 Oliver Perez
10 Darren Oliver
9 Julio Franco
8 Guillermo Mota
7 Shawn Green
6 Lastings Milledge
5 Chris Woodward
4 Brian Bannister
3 Heath Bell
2 Dave Williams
1 Alay Soler

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Wagner - I'm convinced now that no one will ever like the closer, but Wagner had a lower ERA, lower WHiP, Higher K/9, plus a lower BAA & SLGA than any of the other relievers all while usually working the money inning(s)

He blew a game against the Yankees! Chyuh!

I'm looking at the rankings of our catchers not named LoDuca and it strikes me that we would have been lost if Paulie had gotten injured.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

somebody with time and chartmaking ability ought to line up our rankings against one another.

Good point above about Tucker, which is an important call considering under our 30-man system he gets either some points or no points.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm on it.

I've got a running total of the consensus to date and plan to post a summary of where we're at in the next day or two.

[Edgy MD]

This is what I've got. We're pretty set up top.

I've included standard deviations to indicate which guys we have strong disagreement on. As is typical, they frequently include guys with partial seasons (Martinez, Sanchez) and guys who performed well in lower-profile roles (Feliciano, Oliver). There's more consensus on the batters.

Anybody who has an SD over 3.5 is worth reviewing.

I haven't posted a list, but I think I have a place in my heart for Dave Williams.

Rank	TransMonk	Vic Sage	seawolf17	valadius	Frayed Knot	Nymr83	Johnny Dickshot	Rank	Consensus	Average	High	Low	SD
30	Beltran	Beltran	Reyes	Beltran	Beltran	Beltran	Beltran	30	Beltran	29.86	30	29	0.38
29	Reyes	Reyes	Beltran	Reyes	Reyes	Reyes	Reyes	29	Reyes	29.14	30	29	0.38
28	Wright	Wright	Delgado	Delgado	Wright	Wright	Wright	28	Wright	27.71	28	27	0.49
27	Delgado	Delgado	Wright	Wright	Delgado	Delgado	Delgado	27	Delgado	27.29	28	27	0.49
26	Glavine	Wagner	Glavine	LoDuca	Wagner	LoDuca	Wagner	26	Glavine	25.71	26	25	0.49
25	LoDuca	Glavine	LoDuca	Glavine	Glavine	Glavine	Glavine	25	LoDuca	24.86	26	24	0.90
24	Wagner	Maine	Oliver	Chavez	Heilman	Chavez	Bradford	24	Wagner	23.86	25	21	1.46
23	Valentin	Chavez	Feliciano	Nady	Sanchez	Heilman	Chavez	23	Valentin	21.57	24	19	1.90
22	Heilman	Heilman	O. Hernandez	Maine	Valentin	Martinez	Valentin	22	Heilman	19.57	22	17	1.72
21	Maine	Nady	Maine	Trachsel	Chavez	Nady	Nady	21	Maine	18.86	22	15	3.13
20	Martinez	O. Hernandez	Martinez	Floyd	Floyd	Sanchez	Martinez	20	Martinez	18.57	23	14	4.39
19	Chavez	Sanchez	Chavez	Oliver	Feliciano	Bradford	O. Hernandez	19	Chavez	18.14	21	15	2.48
18	Feliciano	LoDuca	Wagner	Wagner	LoDuca	Valentin	LoDuca	18	Feliciano	17.57	24	12	4.43
17	Sanchez	Martinez	Valentin	Valentin	Martinez	Wagner	Sanchez	17	Sanchez	17.57	23	11	4.47
16	Bradford	Feliciano	Sanchez	Heilman	Bradford	Floyd	Maine	16	Bradford	17.14	21	13	2.41
15	O. Hernandez	Valentin	Heilman	Martinez	Maine	Maine	Feliciano	15	O. Hernandez	17.00	22	11	3.70
14	Oliver	Bradford	Bradford	O. Hernandez	O. Hernandez	Oliver	Heilman	14	Oliver	15.29	21	10	4.07
13	Nady	Mota	Nady	Feliciano	Trachsel	Trachsel	Floyd	13	Nady	14.43	19	12	2.44
12	Floyd	Trachsel	Floyd	Sanchez	Oliver	O. Hernandez	Trachsel	12	Floyd	12.57	17	9	2.64
11	Trachsel	Green	Trachsel	Bradford	Nady	Feliciano	Oliver	11	Trachsel	12.43	15	11	1.40
10	Green	Oliver	Franco	Franco	Franco	Perez	Mota	10	Green	9.71	13	9	1.50
9	Franco	Floyd	Green	Green	Green	Green	Green	9	Franco	8.71	10	7	1.38
8	Mota	Perez	Milledge	Mota	Perez	Bannister	Franco	8	Mota	7.00	12	0	3.96
7	Perez	Julio	Perez	Woodward	Williams	Pelfrey	Milledge	7	Perez	6.43	10	3	2.64
6	Bannister	Bannister	Bannister	Milledge	Milledge	Milledge	R. Hernandez	6	Bannister	5.43	8	4	1.51
5	Milledge	Castro	Castro	Castro	Tucker	Tucker	Woodward	5	Milledge	4.71	8	1	2.21
4	Woodward	Milledge	Soler	R. Hernandez	Woodward	Soler	Perez	4	Woodward	3.86	7	1	2.41
3	Soler	Tucker	Mota	Bannister	Bannister	Castro	Tucker	3	Soler	2.57	6	0	2.76
2	Castro	Franco	Woodward	Perez	Mota	Franco	Bannister	2	Castro	2.29	7	0	2.43
1	R. Hernandez	Woodward	Tucker	Soler	Castro	Woodward	Julio	1	R. Hernandez	1.86	6	0	2.61
									Tucker	1.71	4	0	1.70
									Julio	0.71	3	0	1.25
									Pelfrey	0.43	3	0	1.13
									Williams	0.43	3	0	1.13
Left Out	Tucker, Julio, Pelfrey, Williams	Soler, R. Hernandez, Pelfrey, Williams	R. Hernandez, Julio, Pelfrey, Williams	Tucker, Julio, Pelfrey, Williams	Soler, R. Hernandez, Julio, Pelfrey	Mota, R. Hernandez, Julio, Williams	Castro, Soler, Pelfrey, Williams

[metsmarathon]

edgy, you might want to double check your chart. williams comes in at 7 high, not 4. pedro comes in at 22 high, 15 low, not 23/14.

i'm sure there are others too.

hey, i should cobble together a list!

[Benjamin Grimm]

My votes weren't included.

[Edgy MD]

Nothing personal.

[metsmarathon]

here's my list, based on my own schaeffer voting:

30	Beltran
29	Reyes
28	Wright
27	Glavine
26	Delgado
25	Martinez
24	Ohernandez
23	Trachsel
22	Valentin
21	Maine
20	Oliver
19	LoDuca
18	Chavez
17	Floyd
16	Wagner
15	Nady
14	Heilman
13	Feliciano
12	Bannister
11	Soler
10	Sanchez
9	Bradford
8	Perez
7	Woodward
6	Milledge
5	Bell
4	Williams
3	Rhernandez
2	Castro
1	Ring

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy DC wrote: Nothing personal.

No offense taken.

[nymr83]

you either mislabeled the chart, or pulled things out of your ...

those arent my rankings, maybe the user names are in the wrong places?

[metsmarathon]

and here's another chart that combines win shares and wins above replacement, averaged together, sorta. i divided win shares by three, and then averaged that with WARP3, and ranked based on that average. feel free to ignore it if you like - its more for informational purposes than anything.

rank	player	WARP3	WS/3
30	Beltran	11.8	12.7
29	Reyes	10.2	10.7
28	Wright	7.2	9.7
27	Glavine	6.2	8.0
26	Delgado	6.8	5.3
25	Martinez	4.9	5.7
24	Ohernandez	6.5	4.0
23	Trachsel	5.6	4.3
22	Valentin	4.6	4.7
21	Maine	3.8	2.7
20	Oliver	3.3	2.7
19	LoDuca	3.3	2.0
18	Chavez	2.8	2.3
17	Floyd	2.1	3.0
16	Wagner	3	2.0
15	Nady	2.2	2.7
14	Heilman	2.5	2.0
13	Feliciano	2.8	1.7
12	Bannister	2.4	2.0
11	Soler	2.5	1.7
10	Sanchez	1.7	1.0
9	Bradford	1.6	1.0
8	Perez	1.4	0.7
7	Woodward	1	1.0
6	Milledge	0.5	1.3
5	Bell	0.6	1.0
4	Williams	0.7	0.7
3	Rhernandez	0.5	0.7
2	Castro	0.5	0.3
1	Ring	0.5	0.3

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I messed up sorting and royally messed up Monk's list.

I'll try again.

[Edgy MD]

I messed up everybody by grabbing too many columns in my sort.

[Frayed Knot]

Yo marathon, are you willing to defend;

- Oliver above Wagner (4 slots), Heilman (6), Sanchez (7), Feliciano (10) & Bradford(11)????

- Trachsel over all of the above plus LoDuca, Valentin & Maine???

- Votes for Bell, Williams & Ring, but none for Green, Mota & Franco???

- Soler above Bradford & Feliciano???

[Frayed Knot]

The composite we've got to date includes the 8 lists submitted so far:
(TransMonk, VicSage, SeaWolf, Valadius, FK, Nymr, Dickshot & Yancy) plus one more from our PotY stats (Yancy's daily polls).
I'm not including marathon's yet until we hear back from him on a few things.

Below is the consensus from those lists along with the cases where individual votes differed most from the group -- which isn't to imply that those are "wrong" neccesarily but to provide a jumping off point for folks to defend or object to various votes.


This first group looks to be fairly well set where they are. Any new lists submitted are unlikely to change things much and none of the individual votes differred by more than a slot or two (except where noted)

30 - Beltran
29 - Reyes
28 - Wright
27 - Delgado
26 - Glavine
25 - LoDuca
24 - Wagner {the PotY list had him at #19, 5 spots lower than our consensus}
23 - Valentin {TransMonk has him 4 spots lower}

The above are also a sizeable gap ahead of the remainder.

22 - Chavez {TM -6; SW -6; FK -7}
21 - Heilman {Val -4; PotY -5}
20 - Pedro {TM -6; SW -6; JD -6}
19 - Maine {TM -4; SW -4; PotY -4}
18 - OHernandez {TM +4; Vic -4; Nymr -7; YSG +4; PotY +4}
17 - Sanchez {TM +6; Val -6; JD +6; PotY -4}
16 - Feliciano {TM +8; Val -4; JD +6; YSG -4; PotY -5}
15 - Bradford {JD +6}

{mid-sized gap here}

14 - Nady {Val +5}
13 - Oliver {TM +5; SW +8; Nymr +5;
12 - Trachsel {YSG +4; PotY +9}
11 - Floyd {Nymr +6; YSG +4; PotY +7}

{big gap}

10 - Green {PotY -6}
9 - Franco
8 - Mota {VS +4; SW -4; Nymr -8 (not on list); PotY -7}
7 - Perez {TM -4; SW -4; YSG +4; PotY -7 (off list)}

* * * *

6 - Bannister
5 - Milledge {PotY +5}
4 - Woodward {PotY +4}
3 - Soler {PotY +6}

then tied for last place:
1.5 - Castro
1.5 - R Hernandez


Outside looking in:
Tucker - got votes from VS (4), SW (4), FK (1), Nymr (1), JD (4)
Bell - YSG (3), PotY (5)
Williams - FK (3); YSG (2); PotY (3)
Julio - VS (3); JD (2);
Pelfrey - Nymr (3)

... the rest of the crew was shut out

[metsmarathon]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yo marathon, are you willing to defend; - Oliver above Wagner (4 slots), Heilman (6), Sanchez (7), Feliciano (10) & Bradford(11)???? - Trachsel over all of the above plus LoDuca, Valentin & Maine??? - Votes for Bell, Williams & Ring, but none for Green, Mota & Franco??? - Soler above Bradford & Feliciano???

maybe... its all based on my schaeffer voting. are you trying to imply that there's a flaw with how i voted! what nerve! of, and i forgot to include the postseason. hee.

i'll take a look at what i've done here. i'm not sure my next tabulation won't raise equally many problems...

[metsmarathon]

updated, in such a fashion as to rectify my voting silliness, as well as to account for the post season.

for the record, i counted NLDS games as twice as important as regular season games, and NLCS games as thrice as important.

results are as shown below.

30	Beltran
29	Reyes
28	Delgado
27	Wright
26	Glavine
25	LoDuca
24	Valentin
23	Chavez
22	Floyd
21	Martinez
20	Maine
19	Wagner
18	OHernandez
17	Oliver
16	Bradford
15	Heilman
14	Feliciano
13	Trachsel
12	Nady
11	Sanchez
10	Perez
9	Woodward
8	Green
7	Mota
6	Milledge
5	Franco
4	Bannister
3	Rhernandez
2	Castro
1	Bell

[Edgy MD]

That's always a philosophical question that is hard to apply mathmatically --- what's the season worth compared to the post-season.

Pretend it's a four-division format, like 1986. The Mets win their division, they've established themselves as the champion among six teams.

If they beat Houston in the LCS, that doubles, and they're the champion of 12 teams.

So philosophically, it can be argued, the LCS, seven games though it may be, carries, in itself, the weight of a full season. And the World Series the weight of both of those. (More, perhaps, in 1986, as the champion of a 12-team league beat the champion of a 14-team league.)

I'm not marrying that one. I'm just taking it out for a walk. I'm not really ready to state that Ray Knight's World Series MVP is worth as much as a season MVP --- and should be counted in his otherwise humble Hall of Fame candidacy --- although it's not unthinkable either.

[metsmarathon]

i was toying originally with three and five, but then that'd almost force me to go with the world series being 10 times as important as the regular season, and that's a bit much. the postseason would then be worth between 9+20+40 = 69 games minimum and 15+35+70 = 120 games maximum.

with my 2, 3, 5 multipliers, it works out instead to 6+12+20 = 38 games minimum to 10+21+35 = 66 games maximum.

is that right? i dunno. but postseason games are more important, so i'm going with it!

there's still a good argument that i've got oliver too high, and maybe the more meaningful relievers too low. i'll run an excursion wherein saves and holds are granted more points, and see what happens!

[nymr83]

rather than weighing it with a number, since i'd be unsure what number to use, i make my regular season list (with tiers) and bump guys up and down based on the postseason, with a very good or very bad postseason needed to move to a different tier.

[metsmarathon]

i feel compulsed to attempt to do it quantifiably, even if the method for quantification is flawed.

especially since i started out the whole process using some inherently flawed quantification method. i must compound the mistake - i simply must!

also, it lets me, presumably, go back in and reevaluate my mthodologies a little easier than a subjective ranking would.

[nymr83]

I'm not comfortable with Oliver higher than Bradford and especially Heilman

Oliver threw 81 mostly low-leverage innings .
(70 hits, 21 walks, 1.123 WHIP, 60 k's, 3.44 ERA)

Bradford threw 62 innings many of which were low leverage and many of which were in key spots with runners on base if i recall correctly.
(59 hits, 13 walks, 1.161 WHIP, 45 k's, 2.90 ERA)

Heilman threw 87 innings, more important innings than anyone but Wagner if i remember correctly.
(73 hits, 23 walks, 1.161 WHIP, 73 k's, 3.61 ERA)

each allowed 2 unearned runs so thats not much of a factor here, i seem to remember Bradford stranding alot of OTHER guys' runners on base (and i have the feeling alot of them belonged to Feliciano) but i can't find inherited runners stats on baseball-reference.com

I think between the 3 of them Heilman was clearly the most important to the team when you consider that neither of the other guys pitched better than him and he undoubtedly pitched more important innings. the inning gap between Oliver and Bradford may be reason enough for some to drop him below Oliver, i could go either way.

[Guest cleonjones11]

This is Mets calculus to me. I'm lost.

[metsmarathon]

i wish these rankings were as easy as calculus!

[nymr83]

calculus has a right answer, these questions don't have absolute rights and wrongs, though some positions are alot more right or wrong than others.