Daisuke Matsuzaka -Let The Bidding Begin.

[metirish]

WOW...figure $60 million at least on a contract,would he become the most expensive pitchere ever if you add in the bid and what Boras will get him?

[Guest Rotblatt]

DocTee wrote: Official: $51.5 million. Holy Smokes.

Whaaaaa?

Holy mother of god is that a lot of money.

[smg58]

Insanity. Pure, unadulterated insanity. Better them than us.

How much of a discount do they think they're going to get? Or do they just not care?

[metirish]

A discount for what?, I doubt Boras will take that into account,it's not like he had anything to do with the bid....if I 'm a Sox fan I'm wondering if there is any money left to fill much needed other spots.

[seawolf17]

I wish I could read what our colleagues at SoSH are saying about this one.

[metirish]

They have about 10 threads on the subject,can't be bothered to read through it all but from what I am reading so far they are happy as pigs in shit.

[Frayed Knot]

]Official: $51.5 million.

Great googily moogily!!

Ya hafta figger that these clubs have a decent idea that they can make part of that back with increased revenue opportunities in the far east. I'm not sure what those would be since the momey from the most obvious ones; foreign TV plus merchandising, are split among all the teams. Plus it's not like the Sox can increase attendance at Fenway from a sudden influx of Japanese tourists or locals since they're sold out through about the year 2525 (if man is still alive) at this point.

I've heard a ton of hair-brained speculation on how much money the Sox can make (or that the Yanx did make from Hidecki) from getting a foothold in the Orient but very few of those actual fact thingies.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Let's keep in mind also that even if he's got the ability of Walter Johnson, he's still a pitcher.

So --- using clumsy math that in no way projects what the market will look like or what the dollar will look like ten years from now --- say they determine he's a pitcher worth $20 million, and they sign him for ten years at $15 million, they get their initial investment back over that time in the difference.

If he can pitch like an all-star for ten years. But anything can happen over a decade. And so much more can happen than could have happened and could yet happen to Alex Rodriguez over his ten-year contract.

[Frayed Knot]

Except that the thinking is that Matsuzaka/Boras are going to want a much shorter contract - something on the order of 3-4 years complete with the 'must decline arb' clause which has become fashionable with established foreign players - so as to make him a true MLB FA by the time he hits age 29 or 30 since it's not like he'll be getting any of that $50mil (unless there's some under the table dealings going on).
Nice deal for Daisuke if he can get it but much tougher for the Sox to amortize that $50mil nut.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, I heard a few minutes from Orestes Destrada today (interview with M&MD on the radio). Destrada, a one-time NYY prospect and now an ESPN talkie - played for a number of years in Japan and knows their system well.
Anyway he claims that Matsuzaka will not be a FA for another two years, in part due to the fact that things like injury or rehab time spent in their mainors does NOT count toward service time and therefore he'd still be short of full FA rights even if he plays next season in Japan. That gives him additional incentive to sign whatever the Sox are offering since he's due to make considerably less ($3-4 mil) in Japan.

[metirish]

Orestes Destrada is a great name,not to mention the fact that I have seen his name all over the place since this news broke..never heard of the guy before.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm in no way claiming that he'd get a ten-year deal. I'm just trying to lay out an "even if" scenario to figger out how a team can justify that payment.

[metirish]

Seems to me that this guy will be under an a huge spotlight,at least Ichiro was way out in Seattle,this guy might go to Boston and asked to be the ace of that staff.....and the difference between the bids for Ichiro and this guy is obviously huge...hope he makes it.

[stevejrogers]

metirish wrote: Orestes Destrada is a great name,not to mention the fact that I have seen his name all over the place since this news broke..never heard of the guy before.

From the "Why do these facts remain in my mind" department (if this is the same Destrada that we are talking about)

-A Lefty hitting catcher with at least the MFYs during the late 80's

-An original Marlin

[nymr83]

Edgy DC wrote: I'm in no way claiming that he'd get a ten-year deal. I'm just trying to lay out an "even if" scenario to figger out how a team can justify that payment.

my cynical answer is they can't unless they worked something out with the Japanese team (ala we'll bid real high but you're giving to us for X)

[Guest iramets]

I heard the Orestes Destrade interview too--the man is full of shit, and those two clowns didn't ask him the right questions. He made himself out to be all-knowing as to the Japanese players who've already played in the majors. Mad Dog asked him "Were you on the money about Kaz Matsui?" and of course he answered, "Oh, sure. I felt Kaz was a great ballplayer, but just not right for New York. As you can see last year he hit .384 for Colorado, so his problem was New York, not that he's a shitty, shitty hitter and the most limited fielder in creation." I'm paraphrasing, but dont they think it would have made some sense to pin him down as to Japanese players's futures, and not to pontificate about why their pasts have turned out as they have? He was disgustingly vague as to whether Matsuzaka will be more like the Big Train than the Big Drain on Boston's Finances. I wanted to hurl my radio across the room from hearing him--usually, when I hear Mike and the Mad Dog, all I normally want to do is hurl.

[HahnSolo]

Second-hand rumor/speculation I heard yesterday. Don't know if there's anything to it, but it's intriguing enough to throw it out there.

What if Boras and the Red Sox have sort of a back room deal going. Boras tells the Sox that if they sign his guy (Drew) to Boras's contract terms, then he won't play hard ball on the Matsuzaka negotiations.
It would sort of explain Drew's willingness to walk away from $33 mill. guaranteed.

[smg58]

I doubt it. If Matsuzaka wasn't already a much more valuable commodity than Drew before yesterday, he certainly is now. Nobody has to tell that to Boras.

So speculating that they could sign Matsuzaka for $6M the next two seasons and $15M for the third, that's three years at $27M. With the bid, that's three years at $78M. Speculating again that he's worth about $15M per, the Sox would need to get over $30M from Japan over that time for this to be worth their while. Does that sound possible?

This will be fun to see pan out. From a safe distance.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

My hunch is that the Red Sox will get two outstanding years from Matsuzaka.

Will they get their money's worth? I have no idea. There are so many intangibles involved. Even if they sell a lot of Red Sox caps and jerseys in Japan, the Royals will benefit from that as much as the Sox do.

But if he helps them win a World Series, (which would make two in one decade!) I'd bet that the Sox and their fans would figure he was worth every penny.

[Guest Iubitul]

HahnSolo wrote: Second-hand rumor/speculation I heard yesterday. Don't know if there's anything to it, but it's intriguing enough to throw it out there. What if Boras and the Red Sox have sort of a back room deal going. Boras tells the Sox that if they sign his guy (Drew) to Boras's contract terms, then he won't play hard ball on the Matsuzaka negotiations. It would sort of explain Drew's willingness to walk away from $33 mill. guaranteed.

This would be Boras colluding with ownership - Given his stance regarding owners, this is pretty far fetched.

This amount is just insane - no, it's obscene. That amount to just have the privilege of negotiating with the guy?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'd chat with Theo Epstein for 30 days for one tenth of that amount.

[Guest iramets]

You realize that he doesn't get the money, the club in Japan gets it, don't you?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Yes.

You realize that Theo Epstein wouldn't pay 51 cents to have a conversation with me, don't you?

[Guest Edgy DC]

He would if that orange monster was behind you.

[Guest Mr. Zero]

The way I am understandng the situation, if Boston and Matzuzaka can't reach a contract agreement he must stay in Japan. And then Boston is no longer responsible for the 51 mill.

So Boston blows everyone away with their outrageous offer, maybe they attempt some sort of contract negotiation. It all falls apart, no one gets Matzuzaka. But even better, it prevents the Wankees from landing him.

Sort of brilliant, though I'm thinking there must be a reason why this could or should not be allowed to happen.

Maybe this was addressed elswhere in the 11 pages of this topic. If so, sorry.

[Guest Iubitul]

This is just further fodder to have Foreign free agents enter the draft, IMO. What the Red Sox posted is higher than the entire 2006 payroll for five separate teams. Something has to be done to keep the top 5 teams from cherry picking all of the top foreign talent.

[Guest Edgy DC]

These Japanese teams have reserve rights on these players that are just as valid and invalid as our teams' reserve rights on their players. If they start raiding each other's players without compensating the foreign teams according to agreed-upon market mechanism, it would mean war between the two leagues.

Something may have to be done, but declaring war on the Japanese league isn't it.

Besides, exactly why would a Japanese star come to the United States only to be able to negotiate with the team that drafted him and paid like a first-year player?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Well, one thing is that if the Red Sox didn't bid in good faith but posted a crazy high bid just to keep Matsuzaka out of the Bronx, they'd create bad feelings with the guy and when he becomes a free agent one or two years from now he won't consider them, and may very well end up a Yankee.

Now, I really don't think that the Yankees figured heavily into Boston's strategy. But assuming it did, bidding in bad faith would keep him away from the Yankees for one or two years. But signing Matsuzaka will keep him away from the Yankees for considerably longer than that.

[metirish]

I think Boras would figured out quickly if he was being jerked around, I wonder if Selig has some sort of ultimate authority where by if it was found that Boston were not negotiating in good faith he could reopen the bidding but ban Boston from it.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Before SoSH closed down their board, I read speculation that the following is likely:

1. Boras & Sox agree on years & conditions but can't agree on money.
2. Matsuzaka's team agrees to make up the difference from the Sox's bid.

For example:

Boras wants $15M over 4 years. Sox are only willing to pay $12M over 4 years. Matsuzaka's team gives $12M under the table to the Sox so that they can afford Matsuzaka.

Net result:

Matsuzaka: $15M over 4 ($60M)
His team: $39.5M ($51.5 minus $12M)
Sox: -$99.5M

Now, it's blatantly illegal, but it makes sense in terms of everyone protecting their interests. The question is, can it happen given the close scrutiny of MLB & the teams who missed out on the bid. Plus, it's not really fair to the other bidders.

I mean, we bid $38M. If the Sox get, say, $15M back from M's team, they will have essentially paid only $36.5M for the right to negotiate. Meaning that, essentially, we had the higher bid and got taken for a ride by the Sox.

Should be interesting to see what happens . . .