Cy Young Predictor --- and Other Post-Season Speculation

[Guest Edgy DC]

Rob Neyer invented this little tool, to project the Cy Young's eventual winner by factoring in the numbers that have historically swayed voters. Obviously, the National League race is wide open, but check out the leaders.

1 Billy Wagner, NYM
2 Brandon Webb, Ari
3 Carlos Zambrano, ChC
4 Chris Carpenter, StL
5 Jason Isringhausen, StL
6 Trevor Hoffman, SD
7 John Smoltz, Atl
8 Aaron Harang, Cin
9 Josh Johnson, Fla
10 Brad Penny, LA

Sandman that.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Ain't that interesting!

It never occurred to me that the Mets might have a Cy Young candidate in their bullpen.

(I probably have a built in bias, though. I doubt I'd ever vote for a reliever for a Cy Young award.)

[HahnSolo]

It looks like Wagner leads primarily for his 12-point "Victory Bonus". Part of the formula is that you get 12 points for leading your team to a division title. But if you look at the chart some pitchers have partial numbers in that column. B. Webb has 2, Hoffman has 3. Why? I thought the bonus implied you had to be on a division winner.

Okay, now I see that the VB is prorated based on the current standings. But I still don't get it.

And Wagner winning the Cy Young would be great for no reason more than hearing M & MD have a month-long screaming fit about it.

[Guest Edgy DC]

For Steve Trachsel, I calculate a 92.37777778, which likely puts him in the top 20.

(CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

VB: A 12-point Victory Bonusawarded for leading your team to the division champsionship (pro-rated based on the current standings.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

What determines if a pitcher "led" his team to a division title, as opposed to just being a contributor?

Is Wagner leading the team? Or is Glavine? Or Trachsel? Or Victor Zambrano? (Remember him?)

[Guest Edgy DC]

I assume all members of the staff of the winnng team get that bonus.

[nymr83]

The race does seem lacking in obvious candidates in a weak NL this year, i had a long discussion about this the other night and we came to the conclusion that Carpenter will win it.

my logic is basically that he is the starting pitcher with the best numbers that plays for a contender and that for a pitcher on a non-contender (Josh Johnson is probably the best) to beat him their numbers would have to not just be slightly better but clearly better to the point that the ignoramuses we call writers will notice those numbers coming from a team that they arent paying attention to.

obviously someone could break out (a 5-0 September with a low ERA for any of Webb/Harang/Penny/Zambrano) and take it away, but if everyone finishes roughly where they are now i think Carpenter wins it.

as far as relievers go i think they need to have a season that is not just good but historicaly dominant to win the award, the voters wont look at them otherwise.

[Gwreck]

Neyer's formula doesn't account for blown saves. I think that's a flaw right there, especially given that blown saves can sometimes turn into victories.

Regardless of that -- Saves seem to be overvalued in his "predictor".

In the last 25 years -- 50 Cy Young Awards awarded -- only 6 relievers have won:

Eric Gagne, LA 2003
Dennis Eckersley, OAK 1992
Mark Davis, SD 1989
Steve Bedrosian MIN 1987
Willie Hernandez DET 1984
Rollie Fingers MIL 1981

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think the formula doesn't penalize blown saves because his impression is that the voters havn't historically tended to penalize blown saves.

It's not trying to produce the best candidate, only the most likely winner.

Meanwhile, the mind-numbing Hank Aaron Award Nominations are out. I fully encourage you all to refrain from votion.

Dynamic dozen up for Aaron Award

Finalists announced for honor going to each league's top hitter

By Mark Newman / MLB.com

Late next month, Hank Aaron is expected to be back in his perennial place at the front of a ballpark interview room before a World Series game, saying a few nice words about two Major League offensive powerhouses who have followed his footsteps and just received the award that bears his name.

One of them will come from the American League: Vladimir Guerrero of the Angels, Travis Hafner of the Indians, Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Paul Konerko of the White Sox, Justin Morneau of the Twins or David Ortiz of the Red Sox.

One of them will come from the National League: Lance Berkman of the Astros, Nomar Garciaparra of the Dodgers, Ryan Howard of the Phillies, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals, Alfonso Soriano of the Nationals or David Wright of the Mets.

Those are your choices for the Hank Aaron Award presented by CENTURY 21, now that the second phase of voting is under way through Sept. 30 exclusively at MLB.com to determine the best offensive performer in each league for the 2006 regular season. In the first phase, fans voted on a ballot that included one representative from each of the 30 clubs, as chosen by Major League Baseball. The fans' vote decided which six players in each league would move on to this next and final step.

"The one thing I want to say about this award is that it goes further than just a ballplayer hitting and batting in runs," said Aaron, baseball's home run and RBI king. "You look at this award and you say, 'What does it exemplify?' It exemplifies the fact that each one of these players meant so much to his team, not only hitting the home runs or batting in the runs, but simply manufacturing wins for their respective teams."

That is really all the criteria that you need to know, straight from The Hammer himself. And after five months of hands-on research, let's face it, do you really need to know any more information about which players are most deserving? These are the players you have watched in awe all summer at the ballpark and live on MLB.TV; the sole providers week after week on your fantasy roster; the face of power on the TV highlights and a veritable wallpaper on the MLB.com homepage.

Since 1999, the 25th anniversary of Aaron breaking Babe Ruth's all-time home run record, Major League Baseball has recognized the best offensive performer from each league with this award. Past recipients include Barry Bonds (three times), Alex Rodriguez (three times), Manny Ramirez (twice), Pujols, Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa and Carlos Delgado. Last year's winners, selected via balloting during the regular season's final month on MLB.com, were Boston's Ortiz and Atlanta's Andruw Jones.

"I am honored to present this award each year," Commissioner Bud Selig said last October. "Hank and I have been friends for nearly 50 years ... and in my opinion, he was the greatest hitter of our generation. When we named this award after Hank -- and, obviously, as I said, there's a long-standing friendship -- it was not only that his career statistics were so magnificent; he broke Babe Ruth's record, that's the obvious part of it. But I have to say ... for all the years I've watched [Aaron], he's been a magnificent human being off the field. And that's the great part of this honor."

Who will you honor this time? Here is a closer look at your choices:

A

merican League

Vladimir Guerrero:

The Angels' quiet right fielder continues to lead by example, recently passing the 100-RBI mark for the eighth time in the last nine seasons. He is a broken record. As sure as there is a spring, summer, fall and winter, he will hit well into the .300s and finish somewhere north of 30 homers and 100 RBIs. His offensive production has given the once-struggling Angels a chance to play meaningful games this month.

"Vladdy carries the team," teammate Orlando Cabrera said. "That's his job."

Travis Hafner:

The Indians' DH is just the second player in club history with at least 40 homers, 100 walks, 100 runs and 100 RBIs in the same season -- joining Jim Thome (1997, 2001-02). He was not voted as an All-Star starter by fans, wasn't selected by coaches/players as a reserve, and then was snubbed by fans with the Final Vote for 32nd man. Will he ever win one of these voting contests? All he does is rake.

"Any time you're up for an award, it's great to be recognized," Hafner said. "Especially hitting, something that I take a great deal of pride in and am very passionate about. So to be up for something like [the Hank Aaron Award] is a great honor."

Derek Jeter:

And here comes The Captain, on the verge of passing Minnesota's Joe Mauer for the AL lead in batting. Jeter is hitting .343 with a .421 on-base percentage (fourth in the AL), 12 homers and 84 RBIs. He is having his best season since 1999, when he hit .349 with 102 RBIs and 24 homers, and also has stolen a career-high 29 bases.

"I think sometimes people lose sight when they talk about baseball players that hitting home runs makes them great, and if you don't hit home runs, then you're not," Jeter said. "Home runs get all the highlights; you see them on SportsCenter and all that. But there's more to the game than just home runs."

Paul Konerko:

A homer Sunday against Kansas City's Mark Redman gave the White Sox first baseman at least 30 long balls in each of the last three seasons and four seasons at or above that total during his stellar career. He is approaching his third consecutive season with at least 100 RBIs and is flirting with a .300 season.

"We've got a good team, and we feel good about what we can do on offense," said Konerko, who rarely talks about his own achievements. "When you've got all eight or nine guys feeling good and swinging the bat well, you're going to score some runs."

Justin Morneau:

Say goodbye to those nagging questions from 2005 about whether he could live up to his meteoric MLB start from the summer before. This guy has been money all season for the Twins, leading them into September contention with a .317 average, 33 homers, 29 doubles and 114s RBI through 130 games.

"The great thing about watching him now is that he's not solely possessed with hitting home runs," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He's a hitter -- a good hitter. He's using the field and driving the ball all over the place."

David Ortiz:

The Wizard of Walk-offs won this award last year, and that was just a warmup. He continues to take his game to new levels, becoming the first player in Red Sox history to have 30 homers at the All-Star break. Entering September, he had 47 homers, leaving him just three shy of Jimmie Foxx's club record of 50, set in 1938. Ortiz spent the first part of September sidelined as doctors tried to determine why he experienced a rapid heartbeat multiple times over a 10-day span in late August, and he was just cleared to return to the lineup Tuesday.

"I swing hard -- just in case I hit it," Ortiz often says and often does.

National League

Lance Berkman:

Whether bouncing back from knee surgeries or groin problems, Berkman always seems to be a force. The outfielder/first baseman has carried the club offensively with a team-leading 36 home runs and 111 RBIs through Sept. 1.

"Coming off of knee surgery, you don't know if you'll ever be the same as before," Berkman said. "It's good for me to come back and have some success and feel like I can put that knee surgery behind me and still be a productive player. ... I'm still looking for that season where I'm consistent for the whole year. Maybe this is it."

Nomar Garciaparra:

The Dodgers' first baseman was rewarded by fans in the Final Vote with a trip to the All-Star Game after a first half in which he was the catalyst for the offense. Garciaparra has remained among the league's offensive leaders throughout the season and is among the NL's top 10 in batting at .314, keeping the Dodgers in position for a possible NL West title.

"I'm just glad I came back last year and played two months -- going good, taking it into the offseason and feeling good into this season," said Garciaparra, who battled injuries to come back last season and then found a true home back in his native Southern California. "I'm fortunate to do what I've got to do."

Ryan Howard:

Major League Baseball's leader in homers (53) and RBIs (134), Howard has been a must-see attraction at Citizens Bank Park and for road audiences. The sophomore first baseman recently zoomed past Mike Schmidt (48) for the Phillies' single-season homer record, he already blew everyone away by winning the CENTURY 21 Home Run Derby on July 11 in Pittsburgh, and he had a three-homer game over the weekend. Oh, and he also is in the NL's top 10 with a .309 average. This dude is fun to watch, and 60-plus long balls is a possibility.

"When the dust settles, if it were to happen, that would be great," Howard said. "It's been a fun ride."

Albert Pujols:

Despite having spent more than half of June on the disabled list, the Cardinals' superstar first baseman already has reached at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs for the sixth time in his first six seasons (unprecedented), and he's a leading candidate for a second MVP. His season was defined with that club-record 14 homers in April, leading to All-Star Game top vote-getter status.

"I just think he's a perfect player," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said. "I don't know how you improve him. Because he does it for all the right reasons."

Alfonso Soriano:

No one in Major League Baseball history has had at least 50 homers and 40 stolen bases in the same season, but the Nationals' outfielder is knocking on the door. Entering this week, Soriano had 44 homers and 36 steals, to go along with a .291 average, 86 RBIs and a career-high .362 on-base percentage. He also has handled himself just fine since reluctantly leaving the second base position, but offense is the only thing that matters in this discussion. And it might be an offensive year never seen before.

"It was very difficult for me because I had to make a lot of changes -- the position, leagues and city," Soriano said recently. "There were a lot of things that were on my mind, but I think my mind is so strong, I can put those problems [aside]. I just play the game and have fun."

David Wright:

One of a few MVP candidates on the NL's winningest club, Wright enjoyed a monster first half for the Mets and then turned the All-Star festivities into a personal coming-out party for superstardom. He was then rewarded with a long contract extension, and now seems to be back on a roll after a protracted slump. Wright went 12-for-23 with a triple, two homers and 15 RBIs in his past six games, and is back above .300 with career highs in homers (24) and RBIs (106).

"I'm taking steps in the right direction," Wright said after the last game of the series against the Rockies, against whom he went 7-for-13. "It takes a little while to get back to where you want to be. I'm having some good at-bats, and I'm still having a few bad at-bats. But I'm definitely feeling more confident, that's for sure."

Those are your dynamic dozen, six per league. Now it is up to fans to decide which player from each league will sit alongside Hammerin' Hank at that front table next month as the personification of offensive greatness for 2006.

Mark Newman is enterprise editor for MLB.com. Team reporters for MLB.com contributed to this story. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

This has been around since 1999? It doesn't seem remotely familiar to me. But I probably glance at the press release every year and then promptly forget it. It will probably be just as unfamiliar to me when they announce the 2007 nominees.

There are just too many awards. If it were up to me, they'd knock it down to MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Gold Gloves. And maybe Silver Sluggers, though that one's kind of contrived, too.

I don't think my heart will skip a beat if David Wright wins this Aaron award. Nor will I care if Paul Lo Duca wins that Hand and Head award (or whatever it was called) that we read about a few weeks ago.

And isn't there also a Hometown Hero award? I seem to remember Ozzie Smith shilling it during a visit with Keith and Gary in the SNY booth.

Ick. I'm completely disinterested in this nonsense.

[MFS62]

"The Wizzard of Walk-Offs"?
feh

and,

]I fully encourage you all to refrain from votion.

Is "votion" a word?

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I don't know what it means, but whatever it is, I'm refrainin'!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: This has been around since 1999? It doesn't seem remotely familiar to me. But I probably glance at the press release every year and then promptly forget it. It will probably be just as unfamiliar to me when they announce the 2007 nominees. There are just too many awards. If it were up to me, they'd knock it down to MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Gold Gloves. And maybe Silver Sluggers, though that one's kind of contrived, too. I don't think my heart will skip a beat if David Wright wins this Aaron award. Nor will I care if Paul Lo Duca wins that Hand and Head award (or whatever it was called) that we read about a few weeks ago. And isn't there also a Hometown Hero award? I seem to remember Ozzie Smith shilling it during a visit with Keith and Gary in the SNY booth. Ick. I'm completely disinterested in this nonsense.

Every year, they come up with a new way of awarding it, instead of turning it over to the writers like other awards. As flawed a process as that is, they always find a more flawed one.

I think that the idea, originally, was to create a batting parallel to the Cy Young Award to discourage voters from injecting the "pitchers have their own award" angle into the MVP balloting. But MLB has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity to present this as the batting equivelant of the Cy Young Award.

[metirish]

] Derek Jeter: And here comes The Captain,

That's enough to make me refrain.

[Valadius]

Mark Messier is The Captain. Derek Jeter is Shit.

[metirish]

I wish we had Johan Santana...he's sick.

[Guest Edgy DC]

A one-hit shutout of the Cards leaves Brandon Webb 2.3 points shy of Wagner.

[metirish]

Wags has had a good season but when I think Cy Young I just don't think of him,of course the NL as a whole is hard to predict for the award.

[metsmarathon]

this thread reminds me of this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1306

for which i'm not able to find an update (i'm not looking all that hard)

i wonder how this formula does this year...

* Leading the league in runs batted in.
* Leading the league in batting average.
* Leading the league in home runs.
* Driving in 100 runs.
* Having a .300 batting average.
* Playing for a division- or league-winning team.
* Playing an up-the-middle position for a division or league winner.

and i'll leave this tabulation up to some HTML-able admin to clean up

Player	RBI Lead	HR Lead	AVG Lead	100 RBI	.300 AVG	Div. Winner	Up Middle on a Div. Winner	Points	RBI	HR	AVG	Sum
R. Howard	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	4	138	56	316	510
A. Pujols	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	118	45	321	484
D. Wright	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	109	24	311	444
C. Beltran	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	3	113	39	284	436
J. Reyes	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	75	19	300	394
P. Loduca	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	41	4	311	356
K. Lofton	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	36	2	305	343
L. Berkman	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	120	39	312	471
M. Cabrera	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	106	25	339	470
G. Atkins	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	104	25	326	455
F. Sanchez	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	76	6	340	422
N. Garciaparra	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	80	17	309	406
S. Rolen	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	81	19	304	404
C. Delgado	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	101	37	264	402
M. Holliday	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	95	28	336	459
C. Utley	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	89	28	304	421
C. Jones	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	79	23	318	420
J. Bay	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	101	32	282	415
R. Durham	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	86	23	300	409
A. Jones	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	108	33	261	402
S. Hatteberg	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	51	13	304	368
O. Vizquel	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	52	301	357
D. Roberts	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	40	2	303	345

but basically, ryan howard wins the MVP, followed by pujols, wright, and beltran. reyes comes in next if his average can stay at or above .300, and loduca follows if "up the middle" includes catchers.

[metsmarathon]

i think i killed the thread...

[Guest Edgy DC]

Hey, Tom Sawyer, paint your own fence for once.

[metirish]

Has there ever been a year where no pitcher deserves the Cy Young award?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, someone will always be the most outstanding.

Since the baseball community differs widely on how valuable top relievers are relative to starters and relative to general value, it's always hard to judge if and when they are "deserving."

The National League in 1987 was one of your weaker fields.

The AL in 1990 was a mind-blowing field. Bob Welch won it because of 27 wins, an unheard of total by that time, but the A's gave him run support and Dennis Eckersley finished his games like nobody's business. Bobby Thigpen and Eck had two of the most extraordinary relief seasons you will ever see, but finished only four and five in the voting because there were three 20-game winners, and the voters see 20 wins as special and tend to vote for them first before considering relievers (or fine starters with less than 20 wins).

[metsmarathon]

i do need to learn html-tables. or start print-screening my excel sheets.

is this thread the place to bitch about the whole "take a guy off his team" line of argument that happens in some mvp races?

regardless, its starting to come up in cy young discussions that i hear on teh radio, and it seems to me that its something of a new phenomenon. am i right that its a new phenomenon, or has it always been the case that voters weigh team record and place in the standings when figuring on their cy youngs?

i mean, i totally understand that team ability is built into the win stat in such a way as does not as much appear in the "mvp stats" but this year i've heard pub for chris carpenter because he's getting his team to win their division.

i mean, his ERA is also lowest, he leads the league in strikeouts, and he's only a win behind webb, and should likely win the award based on that - but are they suddenly taking into account team wins and losses?

and if so, shouldn't they take into account a differential wins/losses kind of thing, whereby a better pitcher on a worse team is benefitted?

(i argue like it matters...)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Argue the validity of win shares. I do. But the MVP should be the guy with the most of them --- or the most of whatever they're trying to represent.

A person can learn HTML tables in an hour or two. It's not rocket science. And since you're pretty much a rocket scientist...

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

A simple table shouldn't even take an hour to learn.


Start with

and end with .

Each row starts with and ends with

In between the above tags, each cell in the row is preceded with and followed by .

There's more stuff that can be done to make the table look prettier, but what I described above are the basics.

Upper left cell	Upper middle cell	Upper right cell
Lower left cell	Lower middle cell	Lower right cell

When including a table in a post, you'll want to remove all of the line feeds. I left them here for better readability.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yancy's table.

Upper left cell	Upper middle cell	Upper right cell
Lower left cell	Lower middle cell	Lower right cell

Awesome!

[metsmarathon]

lets give this a try.
i cheated and built it in excel, then stuffed it full of the html table tags.
it's just too much work for a guy who can't be bothered to punctuate, y'know!

Year

Last

First

Tm

Pos

Batting

Pitching

Fielding

ExpWS

WSP

WSAB

Total WS

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, that won't do.

Remember your row breaks.

On edit: better!

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

metsmarathon wrote: lets give this a try. i cheated and built it in excel, then stuffed it full of the html table tags.

That's exactly the best way to do it!

If you want to make it a little more readable, add BORDER=1 after the word TABLE in the initial tag.