How many pitchers should the Mets take into the playoffs?

[Guest cooby]

I could do that, and get rid of Bradford

[Gwreck]

Because that 2.87 ERA just isn't good enough to get him a spot, you know.

(It's not meant to be snarky -- just to illustrate the point that I don't think they can justifiably take less than 10).

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Rick Peterson made an interesting point during his chat with the SNY broadcasters during Thursday night's game against the Dodgers.

He said that if the Mets get the NLDS series that starts on Tuesday, they might be able to go with only three starting pitchers. (Because there's a day off between Game 1 and Game 2.) But if they get the Wednesday start they'll have to go with four.

(See Gwreck's post in the post-season schedule thread.)

I was hoping for the Tuesday series anyway, because I won't want to wait the extra day for playoff baseball to start. On the other hand, though, the Mets opponent would have that same advantage. If the Mets have a better fourth starter than their opponent does, they might be better off with the Wednesday series.

[Guest Edgy DC]

If their top two starters are rehabbing vets, they'd do well to avail themselves of their impressive depth and go to four starters, unless they really have their backs against the wall or something.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I think I agree.

If they get the Tuesday series, the schedule would be:

NLDS:

]Game 1 Tuesday, October 3 Game 2 Thursday, October 5 Game 3 Saturday October 7 Game 4 Sunday, October 8, if necessary Game 5 Monday, October 9, if necessary

Let's say it's Pedro on Tuesday, Glavine on Thursday, and Hernandez on Saturday.

On Sunday, would you rather have Pedro on four days rest? Or Trachsel? As you said, if the Mets are up 2-1, I'd give it to Trachsel. Down 2-1, it would have to be Pedro.

NLCS:

]Game 1 Wednesday, October 11 Game 2 Thursday, October 12 Game 3 Saturday, October 14 Game 4 Sunday, October 15 Game 5 Monday, October 16, if necessary Game 6 Wednesday, October 18, if necessary Game 7 Thursday, October 19, if necessary

If Trachsel pitches Sunday's game and the Mets win, then Pedro could be ready to go in Game 1 of the NLCS. If Pedro pitches Game 4 of the NLDS, he wouldn't be able to pitch again until NLCS Game 3.

If Pedro pitches Game 5 of the NLDS (and the Mets win), then he'd still be able to pitch Game 3 of the NLCS.

[metsmarathon]

i would build my staff as follows:

pedro
glavine
trachsel
maine

with el duque as my parachute, and oliver as my safety net.
i'm more comfortable with duque in the pen if needed than trachsel. but i'm willing to flip em.

in the pen, are:

wagner
heilman
mota
bradford
and i guess feliciano over robo.

that makes, what? eleven? i'm cool with that.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Man, we all seem to think Mota is a lock over Roberto Hernandez. That's totally still up in the air.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Frankly, I kind of think we should leave Trachsel off the roster and run with Maine. Barring, of course, a nice run by Trachs.

Or maybe not actually OFF the roster, but at least not penciled in to the starting playoff rotation. We can hold him in case we have to use, say, Hernandez or Petey in relief--Trachs can start the next day. I'm tempted to make the argument that Maine should start before Hernandez, but the old guy's been a'ight for us and is a little more trustworthy, I think. Trachsel would be, hands down, the worst man in our bullpen, which means we'd only use him in case of an emergency. Hell, El Duque would be our worst man in the bullpen.

Maine: 68 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.75 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 1.59 HR/9
Trachs: 150.7 IP, 5.02 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.12 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9

Maine has been flat out better than Trachs in every single category, with the exception of HR/9. I just don't see how you start Trachs over Maine.

I'm opposed to any of our starters going on short rest, as they have poor track records, IIRC. If we absolutely have to use Petey on short rest in Game 5 or 7, then so be it.

Game 1 Tuesday, October 3 - Petey (3.84 ERA)
Game 2 Thursday, October 5 - Glavine (3.98 ERA)
Game 3 Saturday October 7 - Hernandez (4.67 ERA)
Game 4 Sunday, October 8 - Petey (regular rest)
Game 5 Monday, October 9 - Maine (3.44 ERA)

Game 1 Wednesday, October 11 - Glavine
Game 2 Thursday, October 12 - Hernandez
Game 3 Saturday, October 14 - Petey (extra day's rest)
Game 4 Sunday, October 15 - Maine (extra day's rest)
Game 5 Monday, October 16, if necessary - Glavine (regular rest)
Game 6 Wednesday, October 18, if necessary - Hernandez (regular rest)
Game 7 Thursday, October 19, if necessary - Petey (regular rest)

[Guest Edgy DC]

="Rotblatt"]Maine has been flat out better than Trachs in every single category, with the exception of HR/9. I just don't see how you start Trachs over Maine.

Well, I'm not necessarily endorsing it, but you know there's more to it tna that which they're taking into account --- gush-goshy intangible shit like "experience," "knows how to pitch," "consistency," etc., along with the notion that a veteran works better in a set role and a rookie can swing.

All that said, I really wanted Glendon Rusch to start over Bobby Jones in the 2000 series, even after Jones turned in the one-hitter to close out the NLCS. I liked the lefty matching up against the Yankees.

[MFS62]

There's an old baseball expression that "hitting is timing and pitching is upsetting timing". (Or something like that)
The first two starters, Pedro and Glavine, and even OHernandez, throw in the high 80's. It would seem that someone like Maine, who throws in the low-mid 90's, would give the opposition batters a different game-to-game look. In-game, most of the Mets righty relievers throw as hard as Maine (the exception being Bradford who has a funky delivery).

But, as Edgy said, experience tends to count for something.

But Maine has to be on the roster somewhere. He's earned it. And who knows? He could be this generation's Howard Ehmke. (A surprise WS starter who struck out 14 batters for Philadelphia)

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I can see the argument for leaving Trachsel off the roster, but I don't think it's going to happen.

I think he's probably the fourth starter.

Maine would be the long guy, and in a postseason game, you're often quicker to go to the long guy, especially late in the series.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Well, I'm not necessarily endorsing it, but you know there's more to it tna that which they're taking into account --- gush-goshy intangible shit like "experience," "knows how to pitch," "consistency," etc., along with the notion that a veteran works better in a set role and a rookie can swing.

Yeah, I know, and it doesn't help that Trachs can't pitch in relief, but I just think all that other stuff is overrated. I agree, though, that Willie will probably look at all that stuff and decide to go with Trachs. It's totally the wrong choice, IMO, though.

="Yancy Street Gang"]Maine would be the long guy, and in a postseason game, you're often quicker to go to the long guy, especially late in the series.

Sure, but why let Trachsel dig a 3- or 4-run hole for us before bringing in a better pitcher? I mean, the dude walks a lot of people and gives up a lot of home runs. That's means things can change in a hurry for him. Now, if Trachs gets hot and throws up a couple zeros his next two or three outings, I'm all for it--or if Maine implodes--but Maine's been darned good this year. After the Seo experience last year, I'm not convinced he'll be able to keep it up for more than a season, but right now, the dude's hot. Let's ride him until he stops.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yancy's posts recently have been compelling, and I realize it's because his avatar says, "Listen to the old white-haired guy, or else he'll let the angry rock guy crush you."

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'm with you, Rotblatt. I'm not saying that starting Trachsel is my preference, but it's what I think will happen.

My rotation would be Martinez, Glavine, Hernandez, Maine.

[Valadius]

Well let's see now:

Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
John Maine
Orlando Hernandez

Billy Wagner
Darren Oliver
Chad Bradford
Pedro Feliciano
Roberto Hernandez
Aaron Heilman
Royce Ring/Guillermo Mota/Heath Bell

I'd go with 11.
An intriguing choice to consider as well, I think, would be to put Oliver Perez in the pen as a middle reliever.

[Guest Edgy DC]

To what degree are you today reassessing your team's need for a Trachsellian element?

[Valadius]

To the degree that I don't know how Willie's going to be able to whittle his pitchers down to 13 or less.

[Guest cooby]

Good God, Val, you weren't even going to let him in the bullpen?

[Valadius]

He scared me too much.

[Guest cooby]

I'll tell you what - you post that hilarious conga line clip at least once tonight, and we'll overlook your oversight

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I think I voted 10, but it seems like 11 has been decided upon, and I'm down with that.

[Gwreck]

I wouldn't be shocked to see 12:

[u:26d24b6abe]Startuers[/u:26d24b6abe]
O. Hernandez
Glavine
Trachsel
Maine
Pedro

[u:26d24b6abe]Relievers[/u:26d24b6abe]
Wagner
Heilman
Mota
Bradford
Feliciano
Oliver
R. Hernandez

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I know what you mean. I think if Pedro is one of the pitchers it might be nice to have 12 instead of 11.

[Gwreck]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I know what you mean. I think if Pedro is one of the pitchers it might be nice to have 12 instead of 11.

It is also possible that they could leave Pedro off in the first round and add him back in for the second round (knock on wood and all that).

I think Gary (?) made the point on SNY last night though that pinch-hitters really aren't going to be used that much anyway, so taking 12 wouldn't be too much of a burden. Endy figures to play most games as the first PH/defensive replacement, but how often are you going to need Woodward, Franco or Milledge except to bat for the pitcher?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

They'd also be useful in a double-switch, which is pretty much the same as batting for the pitcher when you think about it.

Other than that, Woodward or Milledge might be a pinch runner. I don't think the Mets have any "defensive replacement" types other than Endy.

Well, maybe Anderson Hernandez might spell Jose Valentin in late innings. I wouldn't make that move myself. I wouldn't even have Andy on the roster, but I'm not making the decisions.