Met Predictions 2006

[Elster88]

*cough*

Opening Day is tomorrow. Get those predictions in. If you only did half of the questions, get the rest done.

[Elster88]

BUMP

[Elster88]

1) Give the Met who will have the most of each category, names but no numbers

Batting categories
Games - David Wright
Hits - Carlos Delgado
Doubles - David Wright
Triples - Jose Reyes
Home runs - Carlos Delgado
RBI - Carlos Delgado
Stolen Bases - Jose Reyes
Caught stealing - Jose Reyes
Runs scored - David Wright
Batting average (high) - Carlos Delgado
On base percentage (high) - David Wright
Strikeouts (high) - Carlos Delgado
Walks - David Wright

Pitching categories
Wins - Pedro Martinez
Losses - Victor Zambrano
Strikeouts - Pedro Martinez
Walks - Victor Zambrano
ERA (low) - Billy Wagner
ERA (high) - Jorge Julio
ERA (low by a starter) - Pedro Martinez
ERA (high by a starter) - Brian Bannister
Saves - Billy Wagner
BAA (low) - Billy Wagner
BAA (high) - Jorge Julio
Games started - Tom Glavine
Games pitched - Aaron Heilman

2) Give the number for the player and category specified

Cliff Floyd - games - 140
Cliff Floyd - batting average - .285
David Wright - runs scored - 95
David Wright - RBI - 99
Carlos Beltran - home runs - 22
Carlos Beltran - stolen bases - 35
Jose Reyes - errors - 17
Jose Reyes - on base percentage - .320
Carlos Delgado - batting average - .315
Carlos Delgado - RBI - 105
Kaz Matsui - games - 135
Kaz Matsui - runs scored - 65
Anderson Hernandez - games - 45
Anderson Hernandez - batting average - .210
Anderson Hernandez - fielding percentage - .985
Paul Lo Duca - on base percentage - .345
Xavier Nady - RBI - 60
Victor Diaz - games - 70
Pedro Martinez - strikeouts - 200
Tom Glavine - wins - 17
Steve Trachsel - losses - 10
Steve Trachsel - walks - 85
Victor Zambrano - ERA - 4.10
Victor Zambrano - strikeouts - 150
Brian Bannister - games started - 15
Aaron Heilman - games started - 3
Billy Wagner - saves - 42
Billy Wagner - ERA - 1.10
Jorge Julio - ERA - 5.87

3)Team Categories

Total runs scored - 850
Total runs against - 789
Team ERA - 4.15
Team batting average - .268
Record - 90 - 72
NL East Finish (1st, 2nd, etc.) - 2nd
Games behind NL East Winner - 3
Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs) - Wildcard winner
Playoff finish - (Win WS, Lose WS, Lose NLCS, Lose NLDS, no playoffs) - Lose NLCS

4)Tie-breakers
1st tie breaker - Total number of rainouts - 2
2nd tie breaker - Time of longest game of the year - 5:31

[Elster88]

Let's say all predictions in by 7:10 Wednesday.

Where is everyone?

Edgy, let's hear from you.

metirish, finish up your post.

etc.

[Elster88]

This is not garnering the interest that I had hoped for.

[Edgy MD]

Extended exercises in futility usually just distract me from the important rest of my life --- an extended exer... what the Hell.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Give the Met who will have the most of each category, names but no numbers

Batting categories
Games - Jose Reyes
Hits - Jose Reyes
Doubles - David Wright
Triples - Jose Reyes
Home runs - Carlos Delgado
RBI - Carlos Delgado
Stolen Bases - Jose Reyes
Caught stealing - Jose Reyes
Runs scored - Jose Reyes
Batting average (high) - David Wright
On base percentage (high) - David Wright
Strikeouts (high) - Carlos Delgado
Walks - Carlos Beltran

Pitching categories
Wins - Pedro Martinez
Losses - Tom Glavine
Strikeouts - Pedro Martinez
Walks - Victor Zambrano
ERA (low) - Billy Wagner
ERA (high) - Jose Lima
ERA (low by a starter) - Pedro Martinez
ERA (high by a starter) - Scobie
Saves - Billy Wagner
BAA (low) - Billy Wagner
BAA (high) - Scobie
Games started - Tom Glavine
Games pitched - Duaner Sanchez

2) Give the number for the player and category specified

Cliff Floyd - games - 146
Cliff Floyd - batting average - .259
David Wright - runs scored - 97
David Wright - RBI - 114
Carlos Beltran - home runs - 25
Carlos Beltran - stolen bases - 26
Jose Reyes - errors - 19
Jose Reyes - on base percentage - .328
Carlos Delgado - batting average - (who cares as long as 30 of those hits go very far) .274
Carlos Delgado - RBI - 111
Kaz Matsui - games - 95
Kaz Matsui - runs scored -48
Anderson Hernandez - games - 51
Anderson Hernandez - batting average - .226
Anderson Hernandez - fielding percentage - .989
Paul Lo Duca - on base percentage - .351
Xavier Nady - RBI - 70
Victor Diaz - games - 104
Pedro Martinez - strikeouts - 183
Tom Glavine - wins - 14
Steve Trachsel - losses - 9
Steve Trachsel - walks - 72
Victor Zambrano - ERA - 3.92
Victor Zambrano - strikeouts - 176
Brian Bannister - games started - 14
Aaron Heilman - games started - 11
Billy Wagner - saves - 48
Billy Wagner - ERA - 2.22
Jorge Julio - ERA - 3.32

3)Team Categories

Total runs scored - 840
Total runs against - 770
Team ERA - 4.06
Team batting average - .268
Record - 93-68
NL East Finish - 1st
Games behind NL East Winner - 0
Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs) - Division Champ
Playoff finish - Win WS

4)Tie-breakers
1st tie breaker - Total number of rainouts - 4 rainouts, three of which will be made up. I don't know whether that's four or one.
2nd tie breaker - 5:06

[Zvon]

Elster88 wrote: Well....they don't HAVE to, but it will help if they want to win.

.... what do you win?

[Elster88]

$500 large.

[Elster88]

4 rainouts, three of which will be made up. I don't know whether that's four or one.

That's 4.

[Elster88]

10 hours to get those predictions in.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I'll post mine during lunch, I have to fix them because I made a mockery of
them to be a dick and I've decided to un-dick them and be serious.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And if you've ever been undicked you know how painful that can be.

[Guest d'Kong76]

.......

[Elster88]

Last call.

Bret, I don't want to hear any fucking "I told you so's" when the Mets finish in fourth and Steve Trachsel finishes with 15 losses unless you post it here in the predictions.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Cleaning some stuff up, I forgot to fix that mess above .... I swear I didn't change anything:

http://www.kcmets.com/2006predictions.html

[Elster88]

Updates after one month of play. How are you doing?

1) Give the Met who will have the most of each category, names but no numbers

Batting categories
Games - Tie: Delgado, Reyes, Wright (24)
Hits - Tie: Delgado, Nady (28)
Doubles - Tie: Nady, Wright (6)
Triples - Reyes (3)
Home runs - Delgado (9)
RBI - Delgado (20)
Stolen Bases - Reyes (11)
Caught stealing - Reyes (3)
Runs scored - Reyes (21)
Batting average (high) - Nady (.311) (min 74 at bats - Castro and Franco don't qualify)
On base percentage (high) - Delgado (.391) (min 74 at bats ---- hmmm, how many PA to use? rule of thumb for ABs is 3.1 per game - Beltran and Castro don't qualify)
Strikeouts (high) - Delgado (27)
Walks - Tie: Beltran, Delgado, Reyes (12)

Pitching categories
Wins - Martinez (5)
Losses - Tie: Glavine, Trachsel, Zambrano (2)
Strikeouts - Martinez (33)
Walks - Bannister (17)
ERA (low) - Sanchez (0.00)
ERA (high) - Zambrano (9.64)
ERA (low by a starter) - Glavine (2.29)
ERA (high by a starter) - Zambrano (9.64)
Saves - Wagner (7)
BAA (low) - Sanchez (.135)
BAA (high) - Zambrano (.328!!!)
Games started - Glavine (6)
Games pitched - Tie: Heilman, Wagner (12)

2) Give the number for the player and category specified - (total so far, projected amount - 14.8148148148% of the season played)

Cliff Floyd - games: 20, 135
Cliff Floyd - batting average: .195, .195
David Wright - runs scored: 16, 108
David Wright - RBI: 18, 121.5
Carlos Beltran - home runs: 4, 27
Carlos Beltran - stolen bases: 2, 13.5
Jose Reyes - errors: 3, 20.25
Jose Reyes - on base percentage: .330, .330
Carlos Delgado - batting average: .298, .298
Carlos Delgado - RBI: 20, 135
Kaz Matsui - games: 9, 60.75
Kaz Matsui - runs scored: 3, 20.25
Anderson Hernandez - games: 12, 81
Anderson Hernandez - batting average: .146, .146
Anderson Hernandez - fielding percentage: 1.000, 1.000
Paul Lo Duca - on base percentage: .367, .367
Xavier Nady - RBI: 11, 74.25
Victor Diaz - games: 6, 40.5
Pedro Martinez - strikeouts: 33, 222.75
Tom Glavine - wins: 3, 20.25
Steve Trachsel - losses: 2, 13.5
Steve Trachsel - walks: 11, 74.25
Victor Zambrano - ERA: 9.64, 9.64
Victor Zambrano - strikeouts: 8, 54
Brian Bannister - games started: 5, 33.75
Aaron Heilman - games started: 0, 0
Billy Wagner - saves: 7, 47.25
Billy Wagner - ERA: 0.69, 0.69
Jorge Julio - ERA: 7.71, 7.71

3)Team Categories - (total so far, projected amount - 14.8148148148% of the season played)

Total runs scored: 120, 810
Total runs against: 89, 600.75
Team ERA: 3.27, 3.27
Team batting average: .268, .268
Record: 16-8, 108-54
NL East Finish (1st, 2nd, etc.): 1st, 1st
Games behind NL East Winner: 0, 0
Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs): Division Leader, Division Winner
Playoff finish - (Win WS, Lose WS, Lose NLCS, Lose NLDS, no playoffs) ???, not no playoffs, at least

4)Tie-breakers - (total so far, projected amount - 14.8148148148% of the season played)
1st tie breaker - Total number of rainouts: 1, 6.75
2nd tie breaker - Time of longest game of the year: 3:56, 3:56 (The 14 inning affair on April 21st is still shorter than any American League game ever played)

[Elster88]

seawolf17 wrote: Do we need to have innings minimums for any of those pitching categories, or do we want to make it a crapshoot like that?

I missed this question. No inning minimums. The only minimums are on the hitting categories: BA and OBP.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Pedro has 5 wins, yes?

[Elster88]

Fixed.

[Elster88]

Updates exactly 1/3 of the way through the season. How are you doing? Next update after game 81.

1) Give the Met who will have the most of each category, names but no numbers

Batting categories
Games - Reyes (54, projected - 162)
Hits - Wright (68, 204)
Doubles - Wright (17, 51)
Triples - Reyes (7, 21)
Home runs - Delgado (15, 45)
RBI - Beltran (37, 111)
Stolen Bases - Reyes (22, 66)
Caught stealing - Reyes (6, 18)
Runs scored - Reyes (42, 126)
Batting average (high) - Wright (.329)
On base percentage (high) - Wright (.400)
Strikeouts (high) - Delgado (51, 153)
Walks - Beltran (32, 96)

Pitching categories
Wins - Glavine (8, 24)
Losses - Trachsel (4, 12)
Strikeouts - Martinez (88, 264))
Walks - Glavine (23, 69)
ERA (low) - Sanchez (2.04)
ERA (high) - Fortunato (27.00), Lima (8.79)
ERA (low by a starter) - Martinez (2.50)
ERA (high by a starter) - Lima (8.79)
Saves - Wagner (11, 33)
BAA (low) - Martinez (.167)
BAA (high) - Fortunato (.467), Bell (.400), Lima (.305)
Games started - Glavine (12, 36)
Games pitched - Sanchez (27, 81)

2) Give the number for the player and category specified - (total so far, projected amount - 33.333% of the season played)

Cliff Floyd - games: 48, 144
Cliff Floyd - batting average: .233, .233
David Wright - runs scored: 31, 93
David Wright - RBI: 36, 108
Carlos Beltran - home runs: 14, 42
Carlos Beltran - stolen bases: 7, 21
Jose Reyes - errors: 4, 12
Jose Reyes - on base percentage: .316, .316
Carlos Delgado - batting average: .244, .244
Carlos Delgado - RBI: 34, 102
Kaz Matsui - games: 36, 108
Kaz Matsui - runs scored: 10, 30
Anderson Hernandez - games: 22, 36
Anderson Hernandez - batting average: .146, .146
Anderson Hernandez - fielding percentage: 1.000, 1.000
Paul Lo Duca - on base percentage: .344, .344
Xavier Nady - RBI: 22, 66
Victor Diaz - games: 6, 18
Pedro Martinez - strikeouts: 88, 264
Tom Glavine - wins: 8, 24
Steve Trachsel - losses: 4, 12
Steve Trachsel - walks: 22, 66
Victor Zambrano - ERA: 6.75, 6.75
Victor Zambrano - strikeouts: 15, 45
Brian Bannister - games started: 5, 15
Aaron Heilman - games started: 0, 0
Billy Wagner - saves: 11, 33
Billy Wagner - ERA: 2.67, 2.67
Jorge Julio - ERA: 5.06, 5.06

3)Team Categories - (total so far, projected amount - 33.333% of the season played)

Total runs scored: 264, 792
Total runs against: 233, 699
Team ERA: 3.89, 3.89
Team batting average: .257, .257
Record: 33-21, 99-63
NL East Finish (1st, 2nd, etc.): 1st, 1st
Games behind NL East Winner: 0, 0
Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs): Division Leader, Division Winner
Playoff finish - (Win WS, Lose WS, Lose NLCS, Lose NLDS, no playoffs) ???, not no playoffs, at least

4)Tie-breakers - (total so far, projected amount - 33.333% of the season played)
1st tie breaker - Total number of rainouts: 2, 6
2nd tie breaker - Time of longest game of the year: 5:22, 5:22 - May 23rd vs. Philly

[Elster88]

Maybe their should be a starts minimum for starter-specific categories and an innings minimum for all pitching categories. I'll assign them if no one else speaks up. Or if no one else cares.

Edit: I think the standard is 1 inning pitched per game played to qualify as a starter. We can use that. I'm leaning towards just waiting until the end of the season and seeing the breakdown of innings pitched for each pitcher and setting a cutoff then. But more importantly, does anyone really care?

[Elster88]

Updates about 1/2 of the way through the season (after 84 games). Next update after game 108.

1) Give the Met who will have the most of each category, names but no numbers

Batting categories
Games - Reyes, Wright (82, projected - 158.26)
Hits - Reyes (109, 210.67)
Doubles - Wright, Lo Duca (20, 38.6)
Triples - Reyes (12, 23.16)
Home runs - Beltran (24, 46.32)
RBI - Wright (68, 131.24)
Stolen Bases - Reyes (37, 71.41)
Caught stealing - Reyes (9, 17.37)
Runs scored - Reyes (73, 140.89)
Batting average (high) - Wright (.320)
On base percentage (high) - Beltran (.391)
Strikeouts (high) - Delgado (71, 137.03)
Walks - Beltran (49, 94.57)

Pitching categories
Wins - Glavine (11, 21.23)
Losses - Martinez, Hernandez, Trachsel (4, 7.72)
Strikeouts - Martinez (111, 214.23)
Walks - Trachsel (40, 77.2)
ERA (low) - Wagner (2.33)
ERA (high) - Fortunato (27.00), Lima (8.79), Zambrano (6.75), Soler (6.00)
ERA (low by a starter) - Bannister (2.89), Glavine (3.43)
ERA (high by a starter) - Lima (8.79), Zambrano (6.75), Trachsel (4.70)
Saves - Wagner (16, 30.88)
BAA (low) - Wagner (.188)
BAA (high) - Fortunato (.467), Bell (.344)
Games started - Glavine (18, 34.74)
Games pitched - Sanchez (40, 77.3)

2) Give the number for the player and category specified - (total so far, projected amount)

Cliff Floyd - games: 56, 108.8
Cliff Floyd - batting average: .235, .235
David Wright - runs scored: 53, 102.29
David Wright - RBI: 68, 131.24
Carlos Beltran - home runs: 24, 46.32
Carlos Beltran - stolen bases: 12, 23.16
Jose Reyes - errors: 7, 13.51
Jose Reyes - on base percentage: ..354, .354
Carlos Delgado - batting average: ..255, .255
Carlos Delgado - RBI: 55, 106.15
Kaz Matsui - games: 38 (closed)
Kaz Matsui - runs scored: 10 (closed)
Anderson Hernandez - games: 12, 23.16
Anderson Hernandez - batting average: .146, .146
Anderson Hernandez - fielding percentage: 1.000, 1.000
Paul Lo Duca - on base percentage: .330, .330
Xavier Nady - RBI: 30, 57.9
Victor Diaz - games: 6, 11.58
Pedro Martinez - strikeouts: 111, 214.23
Tom Glavine - wins: 11, 21.23
[Steve Trachsel - losses: 4, 7.72
Steve Trachsel - walks: 40, 77.2
Victor Zambrano - ERA: 6.75, (closed)
Victor Zambrano - strikeouts: 15, (closed)
Brian Bannister - games started: 5, 9.65
Aaron Heilman - games started: 0, 0
Billy Wagner - saves: 16, 30.88
Billy Wagner - ERA: 2.332.33
Jorge Julio - ERA: 5.06, closed

3)Team Categories - (total so far, projected amount - 33.333% of the season played)

Total runs scored: 437, 843.41
Total runs against: 380, 733.4
Team ERA: 4.03, 4.03
Team batting average: .265, .265
Record: 50-34, 96.5-65.5
NL East Finish (1st, 2nd, etc.): 1st, 1st
Games behind NL East Winner: 0, 0
Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs): Division Leader, Division Winner
Playoff finish - (Win WS, Lose WS, Lose NLCS, Lose NLDS, no playoffs) ???, not no playoffs, at least

4)Tie-breakers - (total so far, projected amount - 33.333% of the season played)
1st tie breaker - Total number of rainouts: 2, 3.86
2nd tie breaker - Time of longest game of the year: 5:22, 5:22 - May 23rd vs. Philly

[Elster88]

Edit: Jumped the gun.

[Elster88]

7.5 as the projected high for losses by a pitcher is pretty nice. Though it mostly is due to the high number of pitchers used this year.

[Elster88]

I don't think anyone picked Darren Oliver to lead the team in (low) ERA.

[Elster88]

Can a friendly neighborhood mod put this into the baseball forum?

[Guest cooby]

Was Darren Oliver here when we made our picks?

[Elster88]

Awww crap. Those counts are wrong. We're not at the 2/3 mark until after Friday's game. I'll redo them this weekend.

[Elster88]

cooby wrote: Was Darren Oliver here when we made our picks?

Ummm. Not sure. I think so.

That's a little to the side of what I was getting at. I was underlining my surprise at seeing his ERA at 2.04 and leading the team. Whether he was on the team or not, I doubt the number of times he was picked (zero) would've changed.

[Elster88]

Updates about 2/3 of the way through the season (after 110 games). Last update after game 142.

1) Give the Met who will have the most of each category, names but no numbers

Batting categories
Games - Wright (107, projected - 157.29)
Hits - Reyes (132, 194.04)
Doubles - Wright, Lo Duca (28, 41.16)
Triples - Reyes (13, 19.11)
Home runs - Beltran (33, 48.51)
RBI - Beltran (97, 142.59)
Stolen Bases - Reyes (45, 66.15)
Caught stealing - Reyes (11, 16.17)
Runs scored - Reyes (91, 133.77)
Batting average (high) - Lo Duca (.322)
On base percentage (high) - Beltran (.384)
Strikeouts (high) - Delgado (93, 136.71)
Walks - Beltran (63, 92.61)

Pitching categories
Wins - Glavine (12, 17.64)
Losses - Trachsel (5, 7.35)
Strikeouts - Martinez (122, 179.34)
Walks - Trachsel (54, 79.38)
ERA (low) - Maine (2.08)
ERA (high) - Lima (9.87)
ERA (low by a starter) - Maine (2.08)
ERA (high by a starter) - Lima (9.78)
Saves - Wagner (24, 35.28)
BAA (low) - Maine (.190)
BAA (high) - Bell (.330)
Games started - Glavine (24, 35.28)
Games pitched - Heilman (40, 74.97)

2) Give the number for the player and category specified - (total so far, projected amount)

Cliff Floyd - games: 79, 116.13
Cliff Floyd - batting average: .245
David Wright - runs scored: 53, 102.29
David Wright - RBI: 70, 102.9
Carlos Beltran - home runs: 33, 48.51
Carlos Beltran - stolen bases: 14, 20.58
Jose Reyes - errors: 10, 14.7
Jose Reyes - on base percentage: .350
Carlos Delgado - batting average: .260
Carlos Delgado - RBI: 73, 107.31
Kaz Matsui - games: 38 (closed)
Kaz Matsui - runs scored: 10 (closed)
Anderson Hernandez - games: 12, 17.64
Anderson Hernandez - batting average: .146
Anderson Hernandez - fielding percentage: 1.000
Paul Lo Duca - on base percentage: .366, .366
Xavier Nady - RBI: 40 (closed)
Victor Diaz - games: 6, 8.82
Pedro Martinez - strikeouts: 122, 179.34
Tom Glavine - wins: 12, 17.64
Steve Trachsel - losses: 5, 7.35
Steve Trachsel - walks: 54, 79.38
Victor Zambrano - ERA: 6.75, (closed)
Victor Zambrano - strikeouts: 15, (closed)
Brian Bannister - games started: 5, 7.35
Aaron Heilman - games started: 0, 0
Billy Wagner - saves: 24, 35.28
Billy Wagner - ERA: 2.45
Jorge Julio - ERA: 5.06 (closed)

3)Team Categories - (total so far, projected amount)

Total runs scored: 593, 871.71
Total runs against: 499, 733.53
Team ERA: 4.05, 4.05
Team batting average: .267, .267
Record: 66-44, 97-65
NL East Finish (1st, 2nd, etc.): 1st, 1st
Games behind NL East Winner: 0, 0
Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs): Division Leader, Division Winner
Playoff finish - (Win WS, Lose WS, Lose NLCS, Lose NLDS, no playoffs) ???, not no playoffs, at least

4)Tie-breakers - (total so far, projected amount)
1st tie breaker - Total number of rainouts: 2, 2.94
2nd tie breaker - Time of longest game of the year: 5:22, 5:22 - May 23rd vs. Philly