Sox deal Arroyo for Pena

[Frayed Knot]

Bronson Arroyo and his white-boy corn-rows head to Cincinnati (along with a pile of cash) for OFer Wily Mo Pena.

I reckon Wily Mo platoons w/Nixon in RF and also allows Manny to DH on occasion while Papi slides to 1st.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Wow, sweet deal for the Bosox.

I never believed much in Arroyo: Decent pitcher but not nearly as great as he was in '04. Wily Mo could lead the Sox in HRs this year!

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Kew-el.

[Guest abogdan]

Cincinnati trades Casey away to make room for Pena, then they trade Pena away for a starter that isn't significantly better than who they already have there. Brilliant!

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

HEY! WATCH IT!

Only the Mets are stupid!

[Vic Sage]

If they can get Pena 500 plate appearances between RF, LF (he's played some CF too, i think) and DH, they'll likely get 30+ hrs. If this also works to diminish the ABs wasted on JT Snow, so much the better.

Arroyo gave them depth, but they were looking for a spot in the rotation for rookie papelbon (who they are rightfully high on), so they're getting both an offensive upgrade AND the potential for a pitching upgrade, as well.

Cincy? Are they one of the "smart clubs"? Somehow i don't think so.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Boston has been shallow in pitching in recent years and strike me as one of the few good teams that could use the likes of Arroyo. Cincinnati has just been flat bad in pitching and got no better. Head scratcher from their end. They invested a lot in Wily Mo.

[Vic Sage]

shallow, yes, in the sense that they didn't have alot of quality starters in AAA ready to step in when injuries befell Schilling, Wells, etc.

However, they had 6 SPers with major-league contracts, and they had their best prospect Papelbon ready for the rotation. One of the starters was going to get moved. It was thought to be Clement, but turned out to be Arroyo.

Now of course, just like any team, if they have 1 of their SPers go down, they'll be scrambling.

[metirish]

Wily Mo could turn into a monster at Fenway, with Big Papi as his mentor this should be fun to watch, Bronson must be pissed.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I think Boston had been trying to convince Cincinatti to take Clement instead, but Cincinatti held firm on the cheaper option.

I think this is a good deal for Boston, but it might come back to haunt them when Schilling & Wells end up on the DL at the same time . . .

[nymr83]

nice move for Boston and bad news for anyone who had Pena cheap in an Nl-only keeper league from last year.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Kris Benson (31 YO), $7.5M: 1024.3 IP, 103 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 1.92 K/BB, 20.9 VORP 2005

for

Jorge Julio (27 YO, $2.5M): 291.7 IP, 105 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP, 1.93 K/BB, -4.5 VORP 2005
&
John Maine (25 YO, $0.3M): 148.3 IP, 64 ERA+, 1.67 WHIP, 0.93 K/BB, -4.4 VORP 2005


=red]Jae Seo (29 YO), $0.3M: 397.3 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.31 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 29.8 VORP 2005

for

Duaner Sanchez (26 YO, $0.3M): 174 IP, 98 ERA+, 1.43 WHIP, 1.75 K/BB, 13.6 VORP 2005
&
Steve Schmoll (26 YO, $0.3M): 47 IP, 81 ERA+, 1.48 WHIP, 1.32 K/BB, -0.9 VORP 2005

=orange]Bronson Arroyo (29 YO), $2.8M: 588.3 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP, 1.93 K/BB, 18.7 VORP 2005

for

Wily Mo Pena (24 YO, $1.25M), 830 AB, 100 OPS+, 0.19 BB/K., AVG 34 HR/550 AB, 9.5 VORP 2005.

Benson & Arroyo are relatively close in terms of talent. Based solely on numbers, you'd think Benson would less in a trade given his high salary and the age gap. Seo, however, looks like the guy with the most upside, although he's also more of a question mark because he's pitched signficiantly fewer MLB innings. However, he's also cheaper than Arroyo.

Anyway, our trades don't look as bad in comparison to the Pena/Arroyo trade as I thought they would.

Pena's the collective darling of statheads, but he strikes out an awful lot, doesn't hit for average (career minor league AVG of .256), & doesn't walk a lot. He's got power, sure, but looking at his line, I think I'd rather have Diaz, who has better minor league OBP, AVG, SLG & BB/9. Pena advanced faster, but his line away from Cincinatti last year was .232 AVG/.272 OBP/.435 SLG/.707 OPS.

That's terrible. Sure, he'll improve, but his minor league numbers don't give me much hope that his upside is any better than a right-handed Burnitz.

Arroyo, on the other hand, looks like a valuable, if unremarkable, pitcher in the mold of a Benson or Trachsel.

I mean, I still think our trades were poor, but in actually looking at the numbers, I don't think they were THAT much worse than Theo's latest.

[nymr83]

The Seo was dumb just on principle, you don't trade a starter for a middle-reliever.
The Benson deal wasn't too bad on its own because of who we still had but together with the Seo trade it was baffling.
I like Pena better than i like Nady and about the same as Diaz. I'd have given Benson or Seo fopr him if we hadnt traded the other one and had kept Cameron.

[Guest SI Metman]

What makes it even sweeter is the MFY traded Wily Mo for Drew Henson. Now they'll get to see first hand how bad that trade was.

[smg58]

Pena has more upside than Arroyo, but his all-or-nothing approach might not work as well outside of Great American Park (his .707 road OPS last year is not encouraging). Arroyo steps right in as the 2nd or 3rd best starter among the sorry lot in Cincinnati. He's not great, but he doesn't have to be to upgrade that rotation.

The Reds have an excess of second baseman with Freel, Aurillia, and Womack (who, for reasons which defy an easy explanation, they're evidently serious about giving playing time to), and the Mets have an extra right-handed bat in either Diaz or Nady. I'd like to see more of Keppinger before I pulled the trigger on anything, but I'd keep the phone lines open.

[nymr83]

I wouldnt want Womack on my bench much less starting.

Freel is a speed guy with no power and a nice OBP, he should leadoff for us if we got him, but I'd be happy enough to see him hit 2nd and I'd be willing to give up Diaz (even though i like him better than Nady.) I'm pretty sure They'd want pitching too and I'd be willing to trade any one of Banister/Maine/Iriki WITH Diaz or Humber WITHOUT Diaz because Freel is 30 years old has OBPs in the .370's the last 2 years and a 2 hitter who plays 2B is exactly what we need if you assume Reyes will lead off no matter what and Beltran won't bat 2nd.

[Frayed Knot]

]Pena's the collective darling of statheads

Actually, he's been more the darling of the "tools" crowd than the statheads. He was talked about in terms of having "Sosa-like talent" ... IF he could ever harness it.
Sort of the anti-Moneyball player as his low OBPs will attest.

He was - like this F. Martinez guy the Mets signed last summer - a big bonus guy that the Yanks signed as a teenager (actually, the Mets originally signed him but the signing was voided a few months later). The unconscionable part wasn't that the Yanx gave him some major buxx ($2+mil I believe) but that they gave him a Major League contract even though he was not yet 17. That started his 'options clock' immediately and ultimately meant that he was required to be kept in the Majors long before he was ready.

The Yanks obviously weren't going to keep a not-ready-for-prime-time player on their roster during a pennant race so dealt him (and paid the bonus guarantee) to Cincy to re-acquire Henson who they had signed and traded a year or two earlier.

This now looks like Pena's 4th ML season meaning he'd be under Boston control for this coming year plus the next two.

[The Big O]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: HEY! WATCH IT! Only the Mets are stupid!

That's the slogan. Plaster it at subway stations ... NOW.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

The new subway posters are going up now.

The best one I saw, in the Greenpoint Ave. station:

BUY ONE CARLOS, GET ONE FREE.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

The Big O wrote: ="Yancy Street Gang"]HEY! WATCH IT! Only the Mets are stupid! That's the slogan. Plaster it at subway stations ... NOW.

Somewhere around fourth grade, it ceased being hilarious to make up absurd exaggerations of what people were saying, and then to laugh about how exaggerated it was.

If the Sox pulled off a smart trade here, and Cincy a dumb one, as you seem agreed, then is it possible that the Mets, who aren't involved in this deal, could be the only dumb team in baseball? I guess because other teams make dumb deals from time to time, it's okay for the Mets to do it. That's comforting.

I guess.

Just as it's comforting to claim that, because other teams have kept bad players at high salaries in their starting lineups, it's acceptable that the Mets do that.

I really don't see how the prevalence of bad baseball practices makes following good ones foolish. Or why it's so funny to mis-state deliberately what I'm saying and then to marvel over how goofy my comments seem.

[Guest abogdan]

] bad news for anyone who had Pena cheap in an Nl-only keeper league from last year.

Glad to see I wasn't the only one.

[Willets Point]

Like pieces on a freaking chess board.

Interview with Arroyo. Glad he uses the CPF's favorite adjective.

[Elster88]

Edit: You know what? Fuck it. I'm not doing this anymore.

[Guest KC]

BS: >>>Somewhere around fourth grade, it ceased being hilarious to make up absurd exaggerations of what people were saying, and then to laugh about how exaggerated it was.<<<

Oh it can still be pretty funny, if you have a sense of humor. It's not as funny
as farting in a car full of people and locking the electric windows or sneezing
chocolate milk through your nose or even sneaking up behind someone and
pulling their shorts down - but still funny nonetheless.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: I really don't see how the prevalence of bad baseball practices makes following good ones foolish. Or why it's so funny to mis-state deliberately what I'm saying and then to marvel over how goofy my comments seem.

You do that more than anyone I've ever encountered in my life.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

KC wrote: Oh it can still be pretty funny, if you have a sense of humor. .

That's good to know. I guess you won't mind when I try to be even funnier in the future.

Watch this space.

[Guest KC]

Have I ever told you that I find you to be one of the most frustrating
creatures I've ever encountered in my entire life? School yard bullies,
bad manipulative teachers, girl friends parents and grandparents, bosses,
employees - the list goes on and on - and you're right up there. High.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

You know, I keep looking for the backhanded compliment, the reluctant admiration, in there, and I'm not seeing it. I'll keep looking.

[Frayed Knot]

More BoSox moves (which apparently happened Saturday but didn't seem to make any of this morning's papers) in that they claimed Hee Seop Choi off waivers from the Dodgers.
Also interesting is that he apparently has a minor league option left - although at 750K he'd be an expensive AAA player (but a cheap ML one).

Sox now have to factor in Snow & Choi & Youkilis & Lowell into the 2 corner IF spots. Maybe this means Lowell hasn't looked good in Spring since they were thinking of a Youk/Snow platoon at 1st. Now both 1st basemen swing lefty and both potential 3rd sackers hit righty.

A year ago at this time some of us were trying to figure out what we'd have to cough up to pry him away from LA. Now the Seo/Choi HS reunion tour is over before it started.

[Frayed Knot]

And speaking of 1st basemen who some of us were trolling around for last off-season, Carlos Pena was released by the Tiggers yesterday.

Maybe it's just coincidence, but it seems that highly touted 1st base prospects have been awfully hard to read in the last few years.
Pena & Choi are still young-ish but have both gone through about 4 orgs each already and neither has anything resembling a full-time job (and think about how many teams passed on Choi if he wound up w/the BoSox).
Also Adrian Gonzalez: 1st overall pick 6 yrs ago - dealt at least twice since;
Jason Stokes: various injuries and stalled progress;
Troy Loney: Dodger farmhand who's been "next year" for about 3 seasons now.
I guess that's the nature of that position - that if you can't hit [u:05d7f82f99]a lot[/u:05d7f82f99] you're just not that valuable (and one of the reasons I'm not sweating out the trade of Jacobs).

Meanwhile, I wonder how the Royals like their M'kwicz signing now that all these cheap options are available on the waiver wire - not to mention their own Justin Huber who they just re-assigned to the minors.