Mets Top Ten Post-Trade Prospects: BA & Rotoworld

[Guest Rotblatt]

So basically, our farm system is really, really depleted.

Y'all should check out the Marlins farm system. Seeing all their acquisitions in one place is just nifty--it's like browsing through the lair of Count Zaroff. Petit is only their second-best prospect, Gaby Hernandez doesn't crack their top 5 and Jacobs doesn't crack their top 10.

BA Top Ten Mets Prospects (post-trade)

1. Lastings Milledge
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Philip Humber
4. Carlos Gomez
5. Fernando Martinez
6. Anderson Hernandez
7. Brian Bannister
8. Alay Soler
9. Deolis Guerra
10. Jon Niese

Rotoworld

]New York Mets 1. Lastings Milledge - OF - DOB: 04/05/85 - ETA: April 2007 .302/.385/.418, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 41/19 K/BB, 18 SB in 232 AB for Single-A St. Lucie .337/.392/.487, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 47/14 K/BB, 11 SB in 193 AB for Double-A Binghamton .330/.403/.574, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 17/10 K/BB, 7 SB in 94 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL) To this point anyway, the Mets haven�t had to part with the crown jewel of their farm system as they continue to upgrade for the short-term. That may change if GM Omar Minaya decides he just has to have Barry Zito, but for now, Milledge appears penciled in for a spot in right field beginning in 2007. He could easily remain in center field on another team. Offensively, he should keep hitting for average and continue to develop more power. He may swing and miss a bit too frequently to bat .300 annually in the majors, but .290 is a reasonable expectation and he�ll be good for 20 homers per year once he settles in. Since he also has 30-steal ability, he�s as good of a fantasy prospect as there is in the NL. 2. Mike Pelfrey - RHP - DOB: 01/14/84 - ETA: June 2007 I�ll have Craig Hansen rated higher in the Top 150, simply because he�s such a safe pick. Pelfrey, though, was probably the best pitching prospect available in the 2005 draft. The Mets selected the 6-foot-7 right-hander ninth overall and finally got him signed on Jan. 10, giving him a major league contract worth a guaranteed $5.3 million. Pelfrey regularly touches 95 mph with his fastball and shows a plus changeup. His curveball needs improvement, but his command is good enough that he could be a fine major league starter with a below average third pitch. The Mets figure to bring him along quickly, with an arrival in the first half of 2007 looking like a possibility. 3. Philip Humber - RHP - DOB: 12/21/82 - ETA: Aug. 2007 2-6, 4.99 ERA, 74 H, 65/18 K/BB in 70 1/3 IP for Single-A St. Lucie 0-1, 6.75 ERA, 4 H, 2/2 K/BB in 4 IP for Double-A Binghamton Humber, the third overall pick in the 2004 draft, underwent Tommy John surgery in July, which figures to keep him from pitching in the minors for the first half of this season. He probably won�t be 100 percent until 2007. Still, he passes for a top prospect in the Mets system. A healthy Humber throws 91-94 mph and has an excellent curveball. He uses a splitter as his third pitch. A year ago, I listed his ETA for the majors as May 2006. While it�s now possible that he won�t be up until 2008, he should regain No. 2-starter potential. 4. Carlos Gomez - OF - DOB: 12/04/85 - ETA: 2009 .275/.331/.376, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 88/32 K/BB, 64 SB in 487 AB for low Single-A Hagerstown The toolsy Gomez made even more progress than anticipated in his first year of full-season ball, leading the South Atlantic League in steals and holding his own at the plate. The Mets believe that the power will come as he matures, and he should turn into a very good defensive right fielder. Plate discipline will play a huge role in his development, but it�s hard not to like his potential. He should be given at least a couple of more months at Hagerstown before he gets a look at Florida State League pitching. 5. Brian Bannister - RHP - DOB: 02/28/81 - ETA: May 2007 9-4, 2.56 ERA, 91 H, 94/27 K/BB in 109 IP for Double-A Binghamton 4-1, 3.18 ERA, 48 H, 48/13 K/BB in 45 1/3 IP for Triple-A Norfolk Bannister, a reliever until his final year at USC, has turned himself into one of the Mets� top pitching prospects despite rarely exceeding 90 mph with his fastball. The son of former major leaguer Floyd Bannister, Brian works in high-80s and keeps batters guessing with a curveball, a slider, a cutter and a change. Keeping the homers and walks to a minimum will be important for him, since he�s always going to be pretty hittable. The Mets could give him a look in the second half of the season. 6. Alay Soler - RHP - DOB: 10/09/79 - ETA: Aug. 2006 The Mets gave Soler, a Cuban defector, a three-year, $2.8 million contract on Aug. 1, 2004, but he still hasn�t thrown a pitch for the organization. He spent last season stuck in the Dominican Republic after a dispute with his agent left him without the proper documentation for a visa. Soler did make it to Puerto Rico to play winter ball, finishing with a 2.37 ERA in 38 IP, and he will be in Florida for spring training in St. Lucie. With an arsenal that reportedly includes a 93-mph fastball and a quality slider, he might turn into a fourth starter or a setup man. The Mets are probably going to have him open the year in Triple-A, but they could first let him compete with Aaron Heilman and others for the last spot in the rotation. 7. Anderson Hernandez - SS/2B - DOB: 10/30/82 .326/.360/.462, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 58/14 K/BB, 11 SB in 273 AB for Double-A Binghamton .303/.354/.379, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 46/22 K/BB, 24 SB in 261 AB for Triple-A Norfolk .056/.105/.056, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 18 AB for New York (NL) Quite a step forward. Hernandez, picked up from the Tigers for Vance Wilson prior to 2005, was a career .257/.305/.347 hitter in four seasons since being signed out of the Dominican Republic. Because he is an excellent defender, it�s likely that all he�d need to do is hit an empty .280 to be a major league regular at shortstop. More production will be necessary for him to play second base, which is where he�d have to fit should he stay with the Mets. The switch-hitter isn�t going to show much more power than he does now, and he does strike out too frequently. The Mets will return him to Triple-A and may give him a look at second base later. 8. John Maine - RHP - DOB: 05/08/81 - ETA: July 2006 6-11, 4.56 ERA, 128 H, 111/42 K/BB in 128 1/3 IP for Triple-A Ottawa 2-3, 6.30 ERA, 39 H, 24/24 K/BB in 40 IP for Baltimore Maine would have just missed a spot in Baltimore�s top 10, but he�s decent enough to be included in the here. A 2002 sixth-round pick, Maine tore through the low minors before running into a roadblock in Triple-A. Encouraging was that his peripherals remained pretty good in the International League. He also had a 3.27 ERA in his first six starts for the Orioles last season. Maine throws 89-92 mph and has a variety of semi-impressive secondary pitches, the best of which is a slider. He�ll have to do a better job of avoiding walks if he�s going to succeed in the majors as a bottom-the-rotation starter. The league switch should help him quite a bit, but he�s still probably not more than a fifth starter. 9. Fernando Martinez - OF - DOB: Oct. 1988 - ETA: 2011 Considering that Martinez is not even going to make his pro debut until 2007, this is something of a reach. Still, the Mets have weakened their farm system sufficiently to make it hard not to include him. Martinez was given a $1.4 million bonus to sign out of the Dominican Republic in July. He�s a left-handed hitter and probable right fielder. The Mets must have seen plenty of like to give him such a large bonus. Beyond that, who can really say? 10. Jeff Keppinger - 2B - DOB: 04/21/80 .337/.377/.455, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 13/16 K/BB, 5 SB in 255 AB for Triple-A Norfolk Keppinger could have spent the second half of last season as the Mets� second baseman, but he suffered a broken leg playing for Norfolk in June and failed to make it back. Maybe it was for the best, as his numbers weren�t going to get any better as time went on. As is, Keppinger appears to be in pretty good position to take over should Kaz Matsui disappoint again, though Bret Boone is also around. The ability to hit for average is far and away Keppinger�s biggest strength. He�s not going to show power. Defensively, he was only average before the injury, and he can�t afford to lose a step. As a result, it�s doubtful that he�ll be a long-term regular. He might be able to fill in for a year or two before settling in for a career as a bench player. He could be a nifty pinch-hitter. Next five: C Jesus Flores, 1B Brett Harper, LHP Evan MacLane, 1B Nick Evans, 1B Mike Carp 2005 top 10: Lastings Milledge, Yusmeiro Petit, Philip Humber, Ambiorix Concepcion, Gaby Hernandez, Victor Diaz, Ian Bladergroen, Alay Soler, Aarom Baldiris, Matt Durkin 2004 top 10: Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber, David Wright, Royce Ring, Matt Peterson, Lastings Milledge, Orber Moreno, Victor Diaz, Craig Brazell, Tyler Yates 2003 top 10: Jose Reyes, Scott Kazmir, Aaron Heilman, Justin Huber, David Wright, Pat Strange, Matt Peterson, Jeff Duncan, Jeremy Griffiths, Ty Wigginton

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Read where some SoSH guy with alleged connections (cough) suggests a deal is "almost done" whereby Milledge and Nady goes to Boston, Clement goes to Washington, and Vidro, Livan Hernandez and a PTBNL comes to the Mets.

]This deal reportedly close to fruition is as follows : Red Sox deal : Matt Clement and Alex Cora Washington Nationals Deal : Jose Vidro and Jay Bergman (personally I have never heard of this Bergman guy) Mets deal: Lastings Milledge , and Xavier Nady ( the original request was for Vicor Diaz , but the Mets still have hopes for Diaz) Red Sox get : Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady Nationals get: Matt Clement and Alex Cora Plus supplemental money if Clement pitches over 150innings from Red Sox.... Mets get: Jose Vidro ( mets are very high on Vidro for 2nd) and Jay Bergman plus PTNBL from either Nats Sox depending on Vidro's health. Manya also is trying to work Livan Hernandez into this deal somehow. Like I said when I put up the scooped info on this source in regaqrd to A crisp deal, within two weekes you will hear this particular source on a Marjor Boston Sports Radio outlet in less than two weeks. I have actually been told by this source the deal is in the final stages, and the only team holding back on this deal is indeed Boston who is the most reluctant.

[MFS62]

Nice to see the nice words about my adopted kid, Carlos Gomez/.

I've seen conflicting reports about whether Hernandez will actually start his pro career in 2006 or 2007. Does anyone know for sure if his age is the issue according to MLB rules, or whenther the Mets feel he needs another year of "extended training camp" or Academy-type seasoning?

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

The Mets strategy seems to be restocking the farm by being aggressive in the foreign amateur free agent marke to supplement their recent draftst. Time will tell if it works.

It's somewhat depressing to see the leftovers from the second big pospect selloff this decade, but on the other hand, not a lot of fruit (exception below) came from the Mets post-2002 selloff. Obviously more came from their 1998-era traded prospects, but they got a lot more back for those players also.

It's funny that the one that really kills the Mets from the 2002-era trades isn't Alex Escobar or Billy Traber, but Jason Bay.

[smg58]

Bergmann is a rookie reliever who had a lot of strikeouts in limited action at the major-league level (21K in 19.2 IP), along with a 2.75 ERA. He'd have been a good pickup before the Mets got overloaded with righty relievers. I'd have given Benson and Diaz for Wilkerson and Bergmann a few months and several deals ago. But now, what's the point in getting him? You'd not only be cutting off any chance of Padilla or Bell making the team, but you'd also be blocking guys you just traded starting pitchers to get.

Vidro and Livan have more than enough question marks to justify taking Milledge off the table; I'm still interested in the both of them, but I hope to God any rumors involving Milledge aren't serious.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

For whatever it's worth, the following was in Jon Heyman's Newsday column on Sunday:

]Lastings to live up to name Omar Minaya has interest in Jose Contreras, and the White Sox will listen, considering Brandon McCarthy is ready to step in. However, the Sox surely would insist on Lastings Milledge, and a Mets official insisted: "Milledge isn't going anywhere. He's going to be our leftfielder in 2007."

[smg58]

Edgy DC wrote: It's funny that the one that really kills the Mets from the 2002-era trades isn't Alex Escobar or Billy Traber, but Jason Bay.

Steve Reed was the major acquisition in the deal that sent Bay, the lefty Bobby Jones, and somebody else to San Diego, but Phillips also insisted on Jason Middlebrook. I can't help wondering if we could have kept Bay if Middlebrook was not thrown in.

It also goes to show that sometimes really good players sneak up on everybody.

[MFS62]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Omar Minaya has interest in Jose Contreras, and the White Sox will listen, considering Brandon McCarthy is ready to step in. However, the Sox surely would insist on Lastings Milledge, and a Mets official insisted: "Milledge isn't going anywhere. He's going to be our leftfielder in 2007."

I had read that Millege has a strong enough arm to play right field. IMO the fact that Omar sees him as a left fielder tells me that he sees Victor Diaz sticking around as the right fielder for a while.
I guess another way to look at that statement is that Cliff only has one more year left on his contract.

Whaddaya' think?

And wasn't Omar the GM who traded Jason Bay away when he was at Montreal?

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I guess we'll see what 2006 brings, but I'm not totally opposed to the idea of retaining Cliff in 2007 and letting Milledge play right field.

If Cliff hits 35 homers and the Mets win the pennant, and Diaz and Nady are merely mediocre, there would be a real argument for keeping him. The potential hangup, of course, would be the length of contract Floyd would want. He'll be 35 in 2007. I'd be willing to give him two years. Maybe three.

[Guest vtmet]

I don't know what is more ugly, the top 10 prospect list or that pathetic 3 way trade...even Mets fans don't come up with such lopsided trades as the one that either a Sox or Nats fan dreamed up...give up Milledge and Nady, get back broken down & overpriced crap?

[soupcan]

vtmet wrote: ...even Mets fans don't come up with such lopsided trades as the one that either a Sox or Nats fan dreamed up...give up Milledge and Nady, get back broken down & overpriced crap?

I like the idea of what Milledge can become but I'm done getting suckered in by the 'potential' of highly rated Mets prospects. I'd prefer to keep Lastings and see what he turns into, but Vidro at second and a solid starter for the rotation isn't 'crap'.

[Guest sharpie]

No deal like that would ever happen with us still holding onto Matsui, plus Boone having the ST invite.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, since the list is being promoted as relatively lean, nobody should over-romanticize the Met farm where it now stands. They cashed in a lot of chits this winter.

But the "potential" of propspects is no more disapponting than the "proven commodity"-ness of veteran acquisitions. The thing about prospects that I like is reduncancy. If Blaedergroen doesn't work, there's Harper, there's Evans, there's Carp, there's some other guy.

All of them taken together are cheaper than Mientkiewicz, and under control for more years. Among them, there's likely to be a decent enoough big-league firstbaseman.

It's the redundancy, as much as anything that the Mets, cut into. But we'll see.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

While the Mets appear to be OK having a few potential impact players cooking in the system, I'd feel a lot better with more depth. I fear a situation like 2001-2002 happening all over again where few guys were able to fill a need or complete a trade if/when necessary.

[metirish]

Dickshot that deal you mentioned is just you taking the piss right?, it can't be true...or even rumored to be.

[Guest rpackrat]

JD hits the nail on the head. That list (and our farm system in fact) is not at all bad. We have a number of potential impact players (especially pitchers), and most of them look like they're on track to hit the majors in '07 or '08. The system lacks depth after the trades, but depth can be made up pretty quickly through the amateur and Minor League Rule V drafts.

[seawolf17]

I like our system right now. Could be deeper, but at least there's something there.

FWIW -- Jacobs isn't going to be on BA's prospect list because he no longer qualifies. He has too much ML experience, I'd think.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Good point about the redundancy, Edge--I totally agree. And JD, you're right too--we do have some impact players. Of course, we had more a few months ago . . . Still, a top three of Milledge, Pelfry & Humber seems pretty solid to me.

Seawolf, Rotoworld did a top 15 for Florida cause, well, they needed it, and they put Jake in at 11. Speaking of which, I'm going to post their FLA prospect list here, since I DO think it's nifty. It's like strolling through the carnage-strewn lair of a toothy, man-eating rodent. I mean, I know they gave up a lot in these trades, but damn does their list of prospects look tasty.

]Florida Marlins 1. Jeremy Hermida - OF - DOB: 01/30/84 - ETA: Now .293/.457/.518, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 89/111 K/BB, 23 SB in 386 AB for Double-A Carolina .293/.383/.634, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 12/6 K/BB, 2 SB in 41 AB for Florida He may have gotten the nod anyway, but with Andy Marte gone, Hermida is the clear choice as the National League�s best prospect. The 2002 first-round pick may never contend for batting crowns or home run titles, but he�ll have Bobby Abreu-type seasons while playing right field for the Marlins. His patience will result in .400+ OBPs to go along with .290 batting averages, and he may peak at somewhere around 30 homers per year in his prime. The plan is for him to open this year as a regular, and he�ll probably end it as the Marlins� No. 3 hitter. 2. Yusmeiro Petit - RHP - DOB: 11/22/84 - ETA: June 2006 9-3, 2.91 ERA, 90 H, 130/18 K/BB in 117 2/3 IP for Double-A Binghamton 0-3, 9.20 ERA, 24 H, 14/6 K/BB in 14 2/3 IP for Triple-A Norfolk That Petit relies more on deception and command than velocity is going to leave many skeptical until he actually gets the job done in the majors. With the trade from the Mets to the Marlins, it�s more likely that he�ll receive his first opportunity this year. Petit spots his 88-91 mph fastball, slider and changeup with precision and does a superb job of hiding the ball, giving hitters less time to react. Maybe quality left-handed hitters will have some luck against him, but he should be effective enough against righties to settle in as a third starter. 3. Hanley Ramirez - SS - DOB: 12/23/83 - ETA: Now .271/.335/.385, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 62/39 K/BB, 26 SB in 465 AB for Double-A Portland .000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 2 AB for Boston There�s still no questioning Ramirez�s ability, but since the Red Sox figured he was at least a couple of years away from becoming an above average regular, they were willing to part with him in order to land Josh Beckett. Now that he�s a Marlin, he�ll have every opportunity to win a starting job this spring, though that could be about the worst thing for his development. Ramirez has excellent bat speed and a decent approach, but he�s not ready to hit in the majors. All he could manage in Double-A last year was a 720 OPS. He�s also not going to be a plus defender right away, although he should be in time. At minimum, a year in Triple-A would seem to be appropriate. 4. Anibal Sanchez - RHP - DOB: 02/27/84 - ETA: July 2007 6-1, 2.40 ERA, 53 H, 95/24 K/BB in 78 2/3 IP for Single-A Wilmington 3-5, 3.45 ERA, 53 H, 63/16 K/BB in 57 1/3 IP for Double-A Portland Before a rough finish to his season, Sanchez looked liked just as good of a prospect as either of Boston�s other young studs, Jon Lester or Jonathan Papelbon. He came down with a sore elbow at the end, an especially big concern given that he missed 2003 following never transposition surgery and had been babied ever since. Sanchez often works in the mid-90s and both his curveball and changeup are potential plus pitches. As a result, he probably has the highest upside of any of the Marlins� young arms. Fortunately, it looks like the team now has the pitching depth to continue to proceed slowly with him. It�d be for the best if he doesn�t see the majors this year. 5. Scott Olsen - LHP - DOB: 01/12/84 - ETA: June 2006 6-4, 3.92 ERA, 75 H, 94/27 K/BB in 80 1/3 IP for Double-A Carolina 1-1, 3.98 ERA, 21 H, 21/10 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP for Florida Olsen, the organization�s top pitching prospect a year ago, debuted with the Marlins last June and did a nice job in a month in the majors before returning to Double-A on July 22. He was diagnosed with elbow inflammation shortly thereafter and didn�t pitch again. Eventually, it was determined that he had a bone spur that didn�t require surgery. With a 91-94 mph fastball, a quality slider and a serviceable changeup, Olsen resembles a future third starter. He might even be a No. 2 if his command continues to improve. The injury has cut into his ranking a bit, but he�s expected to be fine to contend for a rotation spot this spring. 6. Gaby Hernandez - RHP - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: July 2007 6-1, 2.43 ERA, 59 H, 99/30 K/BB in 92 2/3 IP for low Single-A Hagerstown 2-5, 5.74 ERA, 48 H, 32/10 K/BB in 42 1/3 IP for Single-A St. Lucie Until hitting a speed bump in the Florida State League, Hernandez had been dominant since the Mets picked him out of a Florida high school in the third round of the 2004 draft. The Marlins acquired him for Paul Lo Duca and figure to put him back in high-A ball this year. Hernandez doesn�t have enormous upside, but he is a better bet to make it than most pitchers his age. He throws in the low-90s with movement, and both his curveball and changeup look like major league pitches. He�ll probably move quickly for a high school product. If he remains healthy, a debut not long after his 21st birthday is a possibility. 7. Josh Johnson - RHP - DOB: 01/31/84 12-4, 3.87 ERA, 139 H, 113/50 K/BB in 139 2/3 IP for Double-A Carolina 0-0, 3.65 ERA, 11 H, 10/10 K/BB in 12 1/3 IP for Florida Steady progress saw Johnson, a 2002 fourth-round pick, to the majors in September and could keep him there at the start of this year. A 6-foot-7 right-hander with a low-90s sinker, Johnson looks like a prototype middle-of-the-rotation workhorse. Neither his slider nor his changeup is good enough to make him a premier pitcher, but he could eat innings with the best of them. The Marlins will give him a chance to win a rotation spot coming out of spring training. 8. Josh Willingham - C-OF - DOB: 02/17/79 - ETA: Now .222/.300/.333, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 9 AB for Single-A Jupiter .324/.455/.676, 19 HR, 54 RBI, 54/47 K/BB, 5 SB in 219 AB for Triple-A Albuquerque .304/.407/.348, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 23 AB for Florida This is Willingham�s age-27 season already, so it�s definitely time to see what he can do. The Marlins are planning on letting him compete for the starting job at catcher, though they may prefer to go with Miguel Olivo, who has quite a bit more potential defensively. Willingham�s bat would likely play OK in left field, but he might be a problem defensively there, too, depending on how long it takes him to adjust. Either way, the Marlins need to get him at least 400 plate appearances. He might be their second-best hitter, depending on whether Hermida is truly ready or not. With excellent on-base skills and 20-homer power, he should have at least a few quality seasons in him. 9. Ricky Nolasco - RHP - DOB: 12/13/82 - ETA: Aug. 2006 14-3, 2.89 ERA, 151 H, 173/46 K/BB in 161 2/3 IP for Double-A West Tenn Nolasco, a 2001 fourth-round pick of the Cubs, was acquired along with right-hander Sergio Mitre and left-hander Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre in December. The Cubs never had a lot of use for him, first trying to deal him to the Rangers for Rafael Palmeiro in 2003. He initially skipped Double-A in 2004, but after he posted a 9.30 ERA in nine starts in Triple-A, he was demoted to West Tenn and left there for more than a year and a half, even though he was clearly ready to give Iowa another try last season. Nolasco doesn�t throw hard, average 90-92 mph with his fastball, but he has a great curve and a fair changeup. He could be a long-term fourth starter. The Marlins will likely give him a look before season�s end. 10. Jason Stokes - 1B - DOB: 01/23/82 - ETA: April 2007 .283/.340/.674, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 16/3 K/BB, 2 SB in 46 AB for Triple-A Albuquerque Stokes was supposed to be trade bait last season after the Carlos Delgado signing, but he was kept and Delgado wasn�t, meaning the 2000 second-round pick could yet be the team�s first baseman of the future. The problem is health. Stokes was limited to just 13 games last season by his latest round of hand issues. He has 40-homer power and he�s more than a year younger than Mike Jacobs, so this isn�t the time to be giving up on him. Maybe his vulnerability to quality breaking balls, combined with the injuries, will prevent him from developing into a regular. For now, I still think he�s a better bet than Jacobs. 11. Mike Jacobs - 1B - DOB: 10/30/80 - ETA: Now .321/.376/.589, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 94/35 K/BB, 1 SB in 433 AB for Double-A Binghamton .310/.375/.710, 11 HR, 23 RBI, 22/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 100 AB for New York (NL) Jacobs hit .329/.376/.548 for Double-A Binghamton in 2003, missed most of 2004 with shoulder problems and then returned last year as a catcher/first baseman and spent most of the year tearing up the Eastern League again. The Mets recalled him when Mike Piazza was hurt in August, but manager Willie Randolph didn�t want him as a backup catcher and he was set to quietly return to the minors until he delivered a pinch-hit, three-run homer in his first major league at-bat. From then on, he was about as good of a first baseman as there was in the majors. The Mets still weren�t sold on him, so Jacobs went to the Marlins in the Carlos Delgado trade. The talk is that he�ll be an everyday player initially, though using the right-handed-hitting Wes Helms in a platoon with him would result in more production. Jacobs might be Kevin Maas or he could be an eight-year starter at first base. I wouldn�t invest heavily. 12. Chris Volstad - RHP - DOB: 09/23/86 - ETA: 2010 1-1, 2.33 ERA, 25 H, 26/4 K/BB in 27 IP for Rookie GCL Marlins 3-2, 2.13 ERA, 43 H, 29/11 K/BB in 38 IP for SS Single-A Jamestown The Marlins had five of the first 44 picks in last year�s draft and selected pitchers with each one of them. Volstad, drafted 16th overall, was the first taken. A 6-foot-7 right-hander has a low-90s fastball and a couple of secondary pitches with plus potential in his curve and changeup. Because he has very good command and he�s not a maximum-effort pitcher, he probably has a better chance of staying healthy than most his age. 13. Travis Bowyer - RHP - DOB: 08/03/81 - ETA: Now 4-2, 23 Sv, 2.78 ERA, 51 H, 96/40 K/BB in 74 1/3 IP for Triple-A Rochester 0-1, 0 Sv, 5.59 ERA, 10 H, 12/3 K/BB in 9 2/3 IP for Minnesota 0-2, 1 Sv, 9.39 ERA, 28 H, 19/2 K/BB in 15 1/3 IP for Grand Canyon (AFL) Along with fellow righty Scott Tyler, Bowyer was picked up from the Twins for Luis Castillo. One of the hardest throwers around, Bowyer issues high-90s heat with regularity. His awful results in the Arizona Fall League were the result of him concentrating on throwing his slider. Bowyer needs to improve both his breaking ball and his command in order to fulfill his potential and develop into a major league closer. The Marlins hope he�s ready to occupy a setup role now, but he probably isn�t. 14. Aaron Thompson - LHP - DOB: 02/28/07 - ETA: 2009 2-4, 4.50 ERA, 42 H, 41/10 K/BB in 32 IP for Rookie GCL Marlins 1-2, 3.10 ERA, 25 H, 17/10 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP for SS Single-A Jamestown Thompson was the Marlins� second pick in the 2005 draft, going 22nd overall. He should be plenty effective against lefties with his 90-mph fastball and sweeping curveball. He doesn�t appear to have the upside of most high school pitchers taken in the first round of drafts, but he�s a polished product and could move relatively quickly. 15. Eric Reed - OF - DOB: 12/02/80 .255/.305/.299, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 62/17 K/BB, 23 SB in 271 AB for Double-A Carolina .310/.335/.404, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 31/3 K/BB, 17 SB in 171 AB for Triple-A Albuquerque Reed might be Juan Pierre�s replacement in center field this year, though there�s absolutely no reason to believe he�s ready to hit in the majors. Working in his favor is that Reed is a fine defensive center fielder and he�d probably be the Marlins� best basestealer. His offensive potential is quite limited. Reed did bat .300 or better at each stop until last year, though that only led to a career .306/.359/.373 line. He�s probably going to be a long-term reserve, but he may steal 40 bases a time or two as a below average leadoff hitter first. As a result, he�s a fantasy prospect. Next five: LHP Mike Megrew, RHP Chris Resop, LHP Renyel Pinto, LHP Taylor Tankersley, SS Robert Andino 2005 top 10: Jeremy Hermida, Jason Stokes, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Yorman Bazardo, Taylor Tankersley, Jason Vargas, Chris Resop, Luke Hagerty, Eric Reed 2004 top 10: Jason Stokes, Jeff Allison, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Justin Wayne, Eric Reed, Trevor Hutchinson, Cole Seifreg, Yorman Bazardo 2003 top 10: Jason Stokes, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Dontrelle Willis, Justin Wayne, Rob Henkel, Don Levinski, Jeremy Hermida, Jesus Medrano, Chip Ambres

[Frayed Knot]

="seawolf17"]I like our system right now. Could be deeper, but at least there's something there.

Well there's always something but this isn't a good system right now.
Aside from Milledge - who's a legit top-15 in all of baseball kind of guy - I doubt we'll see anyone else in the top-100 lists that'll come out this Spring with the possible exception of Pelfrey who may find his way onto the middle/back of some lists based strictly on his potential & amateur career since obviously there's nothing else to go by at this point.
Now if Pelfrey makes a huge splash and Humber bounces back quickly you've got the potential for a real big "top 3" a la Reyes/Wright/Kazmir, but we're a couple of 'ifs' away from that point and even then you've still got the depth question to contend with.
I think Dickshot's point is that the lack of depth limits what you can do when a trade is needed since most of the guys would fall under the extremes of being either close to untouchable, or so far away to the point where they're not all that valuable.
This wasn't a very highly rated system prior to dealing Petit, Jocobs, Hernandez, etc. and I'd be surprised if the mags that rate these things this Spring have it anywhere but the bottom 1/4 of their lists.

]FWIW -- Jacobs isn't going to be on BA's prospect list because he no longer qualifies. He has too much ML experience, I'd think.

Most places define "prospects" the same way MLB does rookies, so Jacobs - with only 100 MLB ABs - would still be considered one.

[Guest vtmet]

soupcan wrote: ="vtmet"]...even Mets fans don't come up with such lopsided trades as the one that either a Sox or Nats fan dreamed up...give up Milledge and Nady, get back broken down & overpriced crap? I like the idea of what Milledge can become but I'm done getting suckered in by the 'potential' of highly rated Mets prospects. I'd prefer to keep Lastings and see what he turns into, but Vidro at second and a solid starter for the rotation isn't 'crap'.

At this point of Vidro's career...a lot of salary, bad legs after playing for years on the cement floor in Stade Olympic...I stand by my appraisal of Vidro...

I will admit that I overlooked Livan Hernandez's name as the other player...a pretty solid pitcher, but I don't know if I'd get rid of our top position prospect for him...especially when Floyd's contract is up soon and Diaz/Nady/Beltran haven't proven much last season...Do I expect Milledge to be Darryl Strawberry? No...but he should be able to handle any of the 3 OF positions; he's fast, and has so far carried a pretty solid OBP in the minors...I think I'd like to see a 1-5 lineup of: Milledge/Reyes/Wright/Delgado/Beltran instead of getting another middle age pitcher for him...don't know if he'll work out, but it's a better risk than buying a lottery ticket...

[soupcan]

Its already a lottery ticket. Its always a lottery ticket.

What if 3-4 years from now it turns out that Milledge was just another Ochoa/Escobar?

If you had that knowledge right now do you make this deal? I do.

Remember that both Alexes (Alexi?) were '5-tool-can't-miss-superstars' and both were the gems of the minor league system in their time.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't know who in particular you're quoting, but I imagine the production of Roberto Alomar was even more guaranteed than the Alex he was dealt for.

The idea should never be to delude youself into thinking that anybody's guaranteed to do anything, but to garner as many lottery tickets with the best odds so that when the wheel stops spinning, even if it's pointing at Jason Bay, you're still holding that ticket.

(Sketchy extension of metaphor, but I think you get it.)

[Guest vtmet]

IMO, the thing is, at some point in time, you need to be able to trust your prospects...constantly trading away top prospects prolongs mediocrity...without free agency, our OF is going to be pretty lame very shortly...prospects are a roll of the dice, but that's why you should have multiple prospects instead of banking on a few...and also why I don't fully feel comfortable banking on Pelfrey and the guy that just had Tommy John surgery...

[Elster88]

I say the opposite is true. Of the guys penciled in to start next year, let's say the lineup and rotation, how many came up through our system? 4 out of 13. Maybe this is just cherry picking this current year, but I'd guess that the majority of players are going to come from outside sources. You don't have to ever just "buckle down and trust your farm system."

I'd guess in fact, that whenever possible you don't want to trust your farm system, if you can get someone who has performed well at the major league level. There are the occasional guys who turn out exactly as advertised, like Wright and Reyes (hmmmm, actually just Wright so far), but for the most part it's a crapshoot.

This may come as a shock to those who were clamoring for Hernandez over Matsui last year, but minor league production does not ensure major league production.

Edit: Like I said, I'm only cherry-picking this year because it's easiest for my small mind, but I'm curious of the actual ratio throughout baseball.

[Guest vtmet]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't know who in particular you're quoting, but I imagine the production of Roberto Alomar was even more guaranteed than the Alex he was dealt for. The idea should never be to delude youself into thinking that anybody's guaranteed to do anything, but to garner as many lottery tickets with the best odds so that when the wheel stops spinning, even if it's pointing at Jason Bay, you're still holding that ticket. (Sketchy extension of metaphor, but I think you get it.)

exactly...IMO, that's how the Braves, Marlins, and now the Indians have built themselves up...of course you will have your Steve Avery's & Jason Schmidt's that don't work out for your team, but if you stock up on young guns, you might find a Tom Glavine, an Andruw Jones, a Chipper Jones, a John Schmoltz, a Rafael Furcal out of the bunch...instead of importing mediocrity in Benson, Zambrano, etc forever...

[soupcan]

Again, I'm not advocating trading Milledge, I'm just saying that no one should be untouchable based upon potential that's all.

I agree that the farm system should be teeming with prospects but isn't one of the functions of the farm system to provide tradeable chips?

You can quibble about what you'd like to get back in return (prospects or proven MLers) but you can't assume that everyone is going to evolve into a top flight starting Major Leaguer and not trade them because you're scared to make a bad deal.

[nymr83]

="Elster88"] Edit: Like I said, I'm only cherry-picking this year because it's easiest for my small mind, but I'm curious of the actual ratio throughout baseball.

my unscientific (IE just by memory) survey of the 128 starting position players in the NL tells me that 58 of those players are on the team for which they first made a major league appearence...
yeah i could be wrong on a few, wrong about who has the starting job, and i'm not taking into account which system they came through only where i remember them playing in mlb as a rookie but its still a starting point.

[Guest sharpie]

]Tom Glavine, an Andruw Jones, a Chipper Jones, a John Schmoltz

John Smoltz came to the Braves via a trade from the Tiggers for Doyle Alexander. Detroit won the division that year in part because of Alexander's strong finish but clearly the Braves got the better of the trade.

[Guest vtmet]

sharpie wrote: ]Tom Glavine, an Andruw Jones, a Chipper Jones, a John Schmoltz John Smoltz came to the Braves via a trade from the Tiggers for Doyle Alexander. Detroit won the division that year in part because of Alexander's strong finish but clearly the Braves got the better of the trade.

I know, I was just looking at where some of there guys came from earlier...the Braves made out trading for a few younger players in the late 80's to early 90's. Hard to believe that Smoltz was drafted in the 22nd round. And if you look at the Tigers drafts in the years surrounding when they drafted Smoltz, they made some real horrible draft evaluations...very few players of note, which kind of explains why the Tigers have been horrible for so long...

Who did the Braves get back in the Dale Murphy salary dump?

[soupcan]

vtmet wrote: Who did the Braves get back in the Dale Murphy salary dump?

Bag of balls it turns out.

From BaseballReference.com: August 3, 1990: Traded by the Atlanta Braves with a player to be named later to the Philadelphia Phillies for players to be named later and Jeff Parrett. The Atlanta Braves sent Tommy Greene (August 9, 1990) to the Philadelphia Phillies to complete the trade. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Jim Vatcher (August 9, 1990) and Victor Rosario (September 4, 1990) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.