2nd base - 2006

[Frayed Knot]

In the race to replace Matsui, this will be one of the more interesting decisions of the winter.


A question to 'Ask BA' gets the topic started:

Q: - - With all the second basemen the Mets have been using, why has Jeff Keppinger faded out of the picture? Even before his injury, he seemed surprisingly off the radar for the kind of year he was having. Has Anderson Hernandez bumped him from the top of the Mets' minor league depth chart, and what are the odds of them being on the big league team next year?


A: - - Keppinger likely would have gotten a shot in New York this year if he hadn't broken his left kneecap trying to turn a double play in mid-June. Big league second basemen Kaz Matsui and Miguel Cairo got hurt in the same week. But instead of getting that opportunity, Keppinger saw the opposite happen as Hernandez took over for him at Triple-A Norfolk and passed him on the organization depth chart.

Before he got hurt, Keppinger was doing what he does best: hit for average. He was batting .337/.377/.455 in 65 games. Nothing else about his game (power, on-base ability, speed, defense) stands out, so his ceiling is probably that of a line-drive hitting utilityman. He's already 24, two years older than the flashier Hernandez, who fits the more traditional middle-infield mold.

That said, and even with Hernandez coming off a career year of .315/.357/.421 with 35 steals between Double-A and Triple-A, I still don't totally believe in his bat. Hernandez looks like a utilityman to me as well. You may see Hernandez or Keppinger on the Mets in 2006, but I doubt it will be as a starter.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Motherfucker. Two decent 2B men taken already. From Rotoworld:

]Nationals signed infielder-outfielder Damian Jackson, who had been with the Padres, to a one-year contract. Major league free agents can change teams for another 15 days, but Jackson was a minor league free agent, giving him the ability to sign at any time. He's probably getting less than $1 million here, but considering that he opened each of the last two years in the minors, he'll take it. In 275 at-bats with the Padres, Jackson hit .255/.335/.342 with 15 steals in 17 attempts. That's more at-bats than he should get under ideal circumstances, but because he can play six positions, he's a decent enough reserve. Oct. 27 - 3:55 pm et Nationals signed second baseman Bernie Castro, who had been with the Orioles, to a one-year contract. GM Jim Bowden didn't claim him Castro waivers earlier this month, but is giving him a major league deal anyway? That's pretty odd. Nationals fans can view the 26-year-old Castro as a superior version of Henry Mateo. He's probably not good enough to play regularly at second base and his lack of versatility will hinder him as a reserve, but he has some offensive ability and he's a very good basestealer. Because he'll probably be needed to fill in for Jose Vidro at times next year, he'll be a sleeper in NL-only leagues. Oct. 27 - 3:50 pm et

[Guest Edgy DC]

Pressure's on Bowden to replace Christian Guzman. Deivi Cruz is about to become a free agent, and neither of those guys are about to move Guzman.

[Elster88]

I believe in Kaz.

I am a fool.

At least I outlasted the "I believe in Miggy" group.

[nymr83]

Kaz has shown nothing in the majors but i still hate to completely dismiss him after looking at his japan numbers. i'd be very upset if he were plan A next year with a guy like cairo as plan B. i'd be ok with matsui as plan B at 2B, SS, and 3B if he can play there.
i guess i'm ok with him as part of a platoon until he plays himself out of the job or someone plays their way into it.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Nymr83 wrote: Kaz has shown nothing in the majors...

Sure he has.

[nymr83]

his obp has been .331 and .300, his slg .396 and .352, i'll revise my statement to say he hasn't shown anything good at the plate.

i don't want to have a fielding argument at this point, i'll just say that if you assume he is an average defensive player at 2b (not that i assume that, just that i dont want to argue it) that wouldn't justify keeping him in the lineup.

[Guest Mark Healey]

Seriously, he makes eight million dollars next year. I think Mets fans are going to have to deal with the possibility he is the 2B for 2006.

[nymr83]

so does half the yankee bench/bullpen (yeah i'm exaggerating.)
how about taking advantage of playing in new york and not keeping a player at a position just because he's making big dollars?

[Guest Edgy DC]

He hit 32 doubles in 2004 in two thirds of a season. That still led the Mets and was well ahead of a record-setting pace for them.

He hit about the middle of the pack for a starting National League shortstop. Not as much as I hope to see, but not so awful and certainly not nothing. He also stole at an effective rate.

Between his injuries and his slowness to get untracked, he had little to offer this season. But having seen him play, I can't say he's shown nothing. Watching him play makes clear he's a wonderfully talented ballplayer, but the results aren't there.

One thing I notice is a ton of balls that he seems to be intentionally topping on fastballs away when he's batting lefthanded. They get over the pitcher's head on a bounce, but get scooped up by the shortstop on hop two or three and he's out by a half a step. I suspect that these are a often infield hits in Japan, where the shortstop is playing deeper and that initial hop is higher, and he may be anacronistically performing as a relic of the eighties --- the astroturf hitter.

This makes me frustrated because the subtle nuances of slow adjustments and poor communication may be conspiring with his injuries to rob us of a very good ballplayer.

And, these being the best years of his baseball life, I suspect he's more frustrated.

[Willets Point]

You know, I kind of like Matsui. [Readies for barrage of abuse].

[Guest Mark Healey]

Outside of his inablity to stay healthy, the only thing that really worries (and I don't have any stats to back this up) is his penchant for making the big error in the big spot...

However, as Edgy has stated, when he's played regulary, he has hit.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

His frequent injuries are the real issue. He can hit.

I sound like a broken record but an inability to explain their frequency or their severity may have worn out WWSB in the end. IIRC near the end of this year he snapped something to effect of "Don't ask me. I don't understand a thing he says" when he asked about his last injury.

I still wouldn't mind Ray Durham in the mix next season. Most similar through age 33: Craig Biggio.

[Frayed Knot]

I, btw, also have more faith in Matsui than he's actually earned to this point and wouldn't mind seeing him return for next year (although I suspect he'll be gone before April).
I posted not only as a cheesy device to start conversation about the topic but also to temper any notions that are creeping into Met fans' heads that KazMat is addition by subtraction because 'we've got two kick-ass minor leaguers all ready to step in and become stars!!'

[Guest Rotblatt]

Durham activated his $6M player option, so we'll have to trade for him. I wouldn't mind doing that, although he's had injury problems too.

I like Matsui, but we should probably try to trade him. If we can't, we need a plan B--one with serious upside.

[smg58]

We don't have kick-ass minor leaguers. We do have three guys (Hernandez, Lambin, and Keppinger) capable of stepping in as utility men, possibly with one of them emerging to give us more out of 2B than we got this season (which was very, very little).

The only thing that makes Matsui an option to me is his immovability. The no-trade clause doesn't worry me so much because I think he'd be happy to go at this point, but the Mets would either have to take on an expensive player in return or eat most of his contract and get nothing. You could possibly use him in a deal involving Manny to make the money exchange even up, but that doesn't look likely right now. I'm not convinced dealing Matsui would be addition by subtraction the way dealing Cedeno was, but I have no confidence in his ability to contribute, either.

The other question is this: do you bring back Woodward and/or Anderson at the risk of blocking Hernandez, Lambin, and Keppinger?

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: He hit 32 doubles in 2004 in two thirds of a season. That still led the Mets and was well ahead of a record-setting pace for them. He hit about the middle of the pack for a starting National League shortstop. Not as much as I hope to see, but not so awful and certainly not nothing. He also stole at an effective rate. Between his injuries and his slowness to get untracked, he had little to offer this season. But having seen him play, I can't say he's shown nothing. Watching him play makes clear he's a wonderfully talented ballplayer, but the results aren't there.

I've been saying all of this for the entire year. Trust me, with certain folks you'd have more fun banging your head against a wall.

In general, it's much easier to say "Matsui sucks", and more fun to make up clever (SC=100000 on the word clever) nicknames like Matsucki, or Matbooi.

[nymr83]

]He hit 32 doubles in 2004

he still had a disgusting .396 slg%

[Guest Rotblatt]

Oooh, Matbooi! That's a good one! And timely, as well! Right up there with "Matscary" and "Matsuckula" -- any of which would make for pretty entertaining Halloween costumes.

]The other question is this: do you bring back Woodward and/or Anderson at the risk of blocking Hernandez, Lambin, and Keppinger?

Anderson & Woody were both valuable guys this year, but I don't think we should bring back more than one of them. Of course, Lambin gets no respect, so I'd be surprised if he's in their plans at all. I bet Keppinger & Herdandez both get shots, though--although maybe not at the same time.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]he still had a disgusting .396 slg%

Middle of the pack among NL 2Bmen.

[Theoldmole]

I don't see us having a better 2B than Matsui.

[metirish]

Jeff Keppinger will be the Mets second baseman after Kaz gets his chance out of Spring Training.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]he still had a disgusting .396 slg%

So that whole thing about him hitting about in the middle of the pack for National League shortstops, that's just irrelevant? Instead you pick an isolated stat (and that slugging percentage alone is close to the middle of the pack also) and brandish it?

That's analysis?

The team has an investment here. That's no reason to play him if they have better options. But it is a reason to analyze him as closely as possible before making a decision on him. Closer than you seem willing to do, anyhow.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

TheOldMole wrote: I don't see us having a better 2B than Matsui.

Unless there's some truth to that Furcal stuff.

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: ]he still had a disgusting .396 slg% So that whole thing about him hitting about in the middle of the pack for National League shortstops, that's just irrelevant? Instead you pick an isolated stat (and that slugging percentage alone is close to the middle of the pack also) and brandish it? That's analysis? The team has an investment here. That's no reason to play him if they have better options. But it is a reason to analyze him as closely as possible before making a decision on him. Closer than you seem willing to do, anyhow.

How does your head feel? Are there any dents in the wall?

[Guest Mark Healey]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: ="TheOldMole"]I don't see us having a better 2B than Matsui. Unless there's some truth to that Furcal stuff.

I haven't heard that there was any interest from the Mets, just Furcal's agent.

Unless they deal Maysui, I just don't see Minaya bringing in a 2B, which upsets me to no end , as I want Jacobs to pplay 1B next year.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I don't really know how much weight to give the Furcal thing. I am skeptical, but that's my nature. After the Martinez-Beltran thing last year, I'm not going to rule anything out.

[Guest sharpie]

With Furcal and Reyes we would be cleaning up in triples. I don't think it'll happen, though.

[nymr83]

Edgy, YOU picked one stat (the 32 doubles) and i said that even with them his SLG% wasnt so good. besides which, that slg% wasn't even this year! this year he was down in the land of rey ordonez.

[nymr83]

in Furcal's 6 year major league career he has had an OPS+ over 100 only once. now maybe you'll take that out of a gold-glove caliber Shortstop, but from a guy learning a new position at 2B? i'd pass.