STAVE IT OFF

[Guest Edgy DC]

Houston is leading Chicago 2-1 in the seventh. One more win by Houston eliminates the Mets from post-season contention. Sending all good thoughts Chicago-bound.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Good thoughts pay off! Our old friend Jeromy Burnitz hits a two-run homer to put the Cubs ahead!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Patterson makes a huge lead-saving catch.

By the way, both teams are wearing solid-color jerseys and look silly.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Barrett and Macias catch Ensberg stealing.

Burnitz looks good as a Cub.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Dempster closes it out as Bagwell flies to Burnitz.

Mets live another day!

[Guest mlbaseballtalk]

Stayin' Alive, stayin' alive ah ah ah
Staying ALLLLIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVVVEEE!

[Guest mlbaseballtalk]

"Gunn: Any word on Wes?
Illyria: Wesley's dead. I'm feeling grief for him. I can't seem to control it. I wish to do more violence.
Spike: Well, wishes just happen to be horses today.
Angel: Among other things.
Gunn: You take the 30,000 on the left.
Illyria: You're fading. You'll last 10 minutes at best.
Gunn: Then let's make it memorable.
Spike: In terms of a plan?
Angel: We fight.
Spike: Bit more specific.
Angel: Well, personally, I kind of want to slay the dragon. Let's get to work."

-Angel S5 ep 22 Not Fade Away
This should explain everything: http://cityofangel.com/episodes/index.html also note, that was the SERIES Finale of the WB TV show, aired in 2004

GO CARDS!

[seawolf17]

If the Mets win out...

...and the Astros, Fish, and Phils lose out...

...this season isn't over.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Let's not make this too hard. Houston has to lose out.

The Phils can win one (so long as it's not against us). The Marlins can win four or five, I think.

[Guest mlbaseballtalk]

D-Day: War's over, man. Wormer dropped the big one.

Bluto: Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
Otter: Germans?
Boon: Forget it, he's rolling.
Bluto: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough...
[thinks hard]


Bluto: the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go!

[runs out, alone; then returns]

Bluto: What the fuck happened to the Delta I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer...

Otter: Dead! Bluto's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
Bluto: We're just the guys to do it.
D-Day: Let's do it.
Bluto: LET'S DO IT!

[Valadius]

I was just watching that 2 days ago.

[Guest Spacemans Bong]

Edgy DC wrote: Patterson makes a huge lead-saving catch. By the way, both teams are wearing solid-color jerseys and look silly.

I hate solid-color jerseys more than anything. Has anybody here seen one that looks good?

The only thing worse than solid-color jerseys is solid-color jerseys in the postseason. I'm looking at you, Florida.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Does the black shirt in your avatar count?

[Frayed Knot]

That was career HR #299 for Jeromy btw.
And even if it ends this week (and I see no reason why it has to) the dude carved out a nice career for himself.

[metirish]

Burnitz has had a fine career, didn't he nearly retire a few years ago after his season in LA finished, got a call from the Rockies and has never looked back,one thing I liked about Burnitz was his honesty as a player, when he sucked he said it in a very honest way, always tries it seemed.

[Guest Edgy DC]

OK, the Mets have to win their last seven games. It happens. Doesn't happen much, though. Putting aside hard to measure items like home-field advantage and momentum, your average team (playing your average opponent) has a 0.78% of winning their next seven games at any given time.

But this isn't your average team; nor are these your average opponents. When taking into account the Mets winning percentage and their opponents' losing percentages, the chances of the Mets taking the next seven over your Philadelphia Phillies and your Colorado, the chances of the Mets sweeping to the finish is up to 0.99101%.

Wow! Almost 1%!

But, you know, we need a little help from our friends, as we need the Astros to lose their last six. Met fans can take some small comfort in knowing that, if we win tonight, our best friends on Tuesday and Wednesday will be the St. Louis Cardinals, and they are good friends to have. After that, they take on the Cubs, who just stole a victory from them yesterday, and, if the Astros come in on the rebound from a small sweep by St. Louis, will definitely have the 'Stros on their heels. Taking into account the current losing percentage of the Astros and the winning percentages of St. Louis and Chicago �but not home-field advantage, momentum, or who's pitching � this occurrence has a 1.45910% chance of coming about. Whoo-hoo!

Now, these two occurrences con-curring � now we're in tricky territory. Multiply those two percentages by each other and we are at 0.01446%. Um, OK, yeah, we can do that. I used to bullseye womprats in my T-16 back home, and they were no bigger than that.

Of course, there's more. There's often more. Grrr. The Phillies can only win one more game of their remaining six. The good news there is that, in winning out, we'll have already knocked off three of those games. Beyond that, they'll have to come into RFK Stadium and lose two of three to close the year. And that's going to be in adverse circumstances, for I will be in attendance. A sweep would be nice. That would have an 11.12846% chance of occurring. But I don't want to ask for too much. Taking, as usual, current winning and losing percentages into account, the chances Nats taking at least two of three is thrice that � 33.38539%. Of course that still makes the chances of this whole scenario working out two thirds less likely. All this taken into account, we currently have a 0.00483% chance of surviving the season. That's one tiny womprat.

Lastly are Jack McKeon's pesky (but reeling) Marlins. They retain six games on their schedule, and we can't afford them winning more than five. Not bloody likely, but a likelihood we have to account for in that it's small possibility affect our highly improbable march. The chances of them losing at least one game against Washington and Atlanta are a strong 98.22078%.

That whittles our chances of pulling this whole act off down to 0.00474%, only a little less rosy than the pre-Florida calculation. I�m seeing this as about a 20,703-to-1 shot.

Let's go Mets.

[MFS62]

Will our throwing goat entrails by a full moon help the odds any?

Nice job.

Later

[metsmarathon]

i'm disappointed - no clever acronym?!

how can we win it all without a clever acronym with which to motivate us?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Mets alive with six games left.

Not so bad.

[seawolf17]

This season is... not... over...

This is completely irrational, but my heart jumped when I woke up this morning, turned on the computer, and saw the headline "Mets Rally Past Philly." This could actually happen.

[Guest Iubitul]

seawolf17 wrote: This season is... not... over... This is completely irrational, but my heart jumped when I woke up this morning, turned on the computer, and saw the headline "Mets Rally Past Philly." This could actually happen.

Good - I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Must. Not. Get. Excited.

[Elster88]

All I can say is that a two-meter rat is one big-ass rat.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 145) Cal Koonce

[Guest Edgy DC]

The chance that the Mets will win out the season is now up from 0.99101% to 2.05391%.

Chance of the whole miracle falling into place and the Mets tying the Astros: 0.00983%. I think I have this wrong, but I show that's about a 10,173-to-1 payoff.

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: Chance of the whole miracle falling into place and the Mets tying the Astros: 0.00983%. I think I have this wrong, but I show that's about a 10,173-to-1 payoff.

Why the hell does this make me excited for tonight's games? I have a sickness.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 145) Cal Koonce

[Frayed Knot]

]I think I have this wrong, but I show that's about a 10,173-to-1 payoff.

BP has it at 1 in 11,062 (0.00904%)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Go with theirs, the better payday.

I did some small thing wrong, I suspect, in factoring in the odds that Philadelphia takes no more than one from Washington.

Or maybe we calculated it all the same, but they treated all games as a 50/50 prospect, while I factored in the winning percentages and losing percentages of the teams.

[Elster88]

True. Isn't it worth it to throw down ten bucks with those odds?
_____________________________
This post had the designation 145) Cal Koonce

[Guest Edgy DC]

Washington, eliminated by the Mets, are doing their part for our great cause by stomping on the Marlins like a burning turd on the doormat. It's 9-0 in the fifth.

Houston and the Cards are tied in the third.
_______________________________________

On edit: DC takes it up to 10-0. No homers either.

Cards/Astros still tied.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Crapple. Jason Lane hits a two-run homer off of Morris.

St. Louis needs to come back against Oswalt.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Doubles by Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders in the bottom of the sixth pull St. Louis back to within a run, 2-1.