The Future of the Mets

[Valadius]

In honor of Mike Jacobs's dramatic welcome to the major leagues, I want to start a thread that projects what our roster will look like in the semi-distant future, assuming no one is traded, using players currently within the organization, and allowing for holes where we don't have anybody yet.

Let's start with the completely obvious:

C/1B Mike Jacobs (I'm not sure where they'll end up playing him)
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran (for good or ill, he's here)
SP Jae Seo
SP/RP Aaron Heilman
RP Juan Padilla
RP Heath Bell

Guys in the minors that should come up:

2B Anderson Hernandez
OF Lastings Milledge
SP Yusmeiro Petit
SP Brian Bannister

Let's take this and run with it.

[nymr83]

I tried doing it by position and it didn't work well, so instead here are all the guys that i think will still be on the roster opening day 2008 (in order of most likely to least likely.)

David Wright (if they trade him i won't watch anymore), Carlos Beltran (his contract puts him ahead of...), Jose Reyes, Pedro Martinez, Jae Seo, Lastings Milledge, Heath Bell, Phillip Humber, Yusmeiro Petit, Royce Ring, Kris Benson, Mike Jacobs (in a utility 1b/lf/c/ph role.)

i'd love to give Hernandez a chance to show he deserves to play 2B next year since there don't seem to be better options out there.

i'm not high on Bannister at all and for some reason i think nobody would have mentioned Jacobs before today...lets remember that he fields on the same level as Piazza but without his bat...in the long run he doesnt have the glove for catcher or the bat to justify him at 1B.

[DocTee]

What't the consensus on the future of Jeff Keppinger? I see many (most) here prefer Anderson Hernandez and/or Chase Lambin, but I was pleased by JK's performance last year, and would have liked to see him get another shot.

[Valadius]

Forget Lambin, please... his defense is subpar. He has 16 errors this year at Norfolk.

[nymr83]

Keppinger has been hurt or I'd have to believe he'd have gotten his shot already.

The Mets need to get rid of Matsui and only bring back ONE of the Cairo/Anderson/Woodward trio next year because there are alot of guys (hernandez, lambin, keppinger) who are probably old enough that further time in the minors is useless, its time to see if they can help or not and each deserves as many at bats as possible at 2B to show us what they can do.

[smg58]

It's tough to project too far ahead. Other than Wright and Pedro, I can't think of anybody I categorically wouldn't trade for any offer, and other than Matsui I can't think of anybody who has to be some place else next April. I don't like blocking youngsters of at least some potential with veteran mediocrity.

As far as next year's starting pitching goes, I was initially thinking that a solid #2 was a high priority, with Glavine (if necessary) or Trachsel or Zambrano (if he can't be packaged for an upgrade) sticking around one more year at #4 to keep an opening for Petit in 07, with one of Seo/Bannister/Heilman serving as #5. Seo's recent performance is making me question the need to deal here (yes, he would have to keep it up to convince me), leaving a possible additional opening for Bannister or Heilman in the rotation.

I think they have the major league resources to make at least one blockbuster deal while protecting Milledge and Petit, and the team would be better served both short-term and long-term if they went this route.

[Valadius]

Petit should be in the rotation at some point next year. His control is uncanny. We need to get younger in our rotation, and we have the talent to do it. They've served us well, but in the end, 37-year-olds and such should give way to young guns.

P.S. I finally got an avatar up. That's the double-thumbed fist symbol of my hero, the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson, the eccentric and brilliant sportswriter/political junkie/social commentator.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I thought that that avatar was the old Milwaukee Brewers logo that the fans are trying to revive.

[MFS62]

Valadius wrote: Forget Lambin, please... his defense is subpar. He has 16 errors this year at Norfolk.

IIRC, Frank White won the American League Gold Glove one year when he committed 18 errors.
Ya' never know. They've come up with a whole bunch of defensive statistics since. But you still have to watch the guy play.

Later

[MFS62]

83 - Humber is out indefinitely with arm problems (did he have surgery?).
I'm not exactly counting on him to be healthy just yet. (Tim Leary. David Proctor flashbacks)



Hey, if we're talking about the future, what about that kid catcher they signed last week? Think his name is Alberto Castillo. Great move for the future.

Yes, I'm a sarcastic bastard.

Later

[Edgy MD]

They've come up with a whole bunch of defensive statistics since.

Tell it to Corey Ragsdale, man.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: They've come up with a whole bunch of defensive statistics since. Tell it to Corey Ragsdale, man.

I will.
In fact I'd be glad to tell him personally if he ever makes it to the majors.
But since he is still hitting far below .250 at Binghamton, that's not likely to happen real soon. Tell me, are there any new ways to measure strikeouts?

Man, you don't forget anything, do you? :)

Well, remember this. With me, Ragsdale is an emotional subject, not really a statistical one. I only used his number of errors in comparison to his RBI to make a point about how bad his offense is.

Later

[Guest Rotblatt]

C Mike Jacobs
1B Valent (assuming we resign him)
2B Anderson Hernandez
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
RF L. Milledge
CF Carlos Beltran
LF P. Redman

UI: Chase Lambin

SP Petey
SP Petit
SP Jae Seo
SP Humber
SP Bannister

CL Juan Padilla
SU Heath Bell
MRP Aaron Heilman
LOOGY Tim Hamulack
LRP Neal Musser

[MFS62]

Rotblatt, other than the fact that Humber is on the DL with a bad arm, I would flip-flop Millege and Redman. I've read several times that Redman doesn't have a good enough arm to play right.

If the Mets get past the Boras blockade, this year's first rounder (Pelfrey) is said to be very close to already being a major league pitcher. Of course, they said that about Heilmann, too and it took him a while to make it.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I have to hope that over the long term they find a better first baseman than Eric Valent.

[MFS62]

Yep, I think this was an attempt to use players already in the Met organization.

1B Brian Harper has some good power numbers at AA this year.

Later

[Guest SI Metman]

Brett Harper reeks of a Roberto Petagine clone. 24 year old power hitting lefty tearing up the Eastern League.

I also wouldn't put much stock in Redman either. I'm betting that he'll be gone soon as a minor league FA. He turns 26 tomorrow.

[Edgy MD]

On Ragsdale, strikeouts is also a narrow measure on offense, as errors are on defense.

His whiff rate is tremendous (Jose Hernandez territory), but the guy has 47 extra-base hits this season also.

I think we need to get a better understanding of what draft picks are --- they're all very small parts of the greater game of prospect development, and focusing on one so critically and so abusively is as pointless as focusing on the lack of returns of a single chip in a night at the gaming tables.

It's fun to follow the men as we do in the prospect update forum, but none of them alone --- even first rounders --- necessarily represent any broad successful or failed organizational philosophy.

The Mets have a second-round draft pick fropm 2001 who didn't hit over .200 until last year. Ooh, bad. But they also have a 6'4" shortstop who draws raves for his defensive ability from outside the organization, who is now hitting fifth for Binghamton, and at 22 is showing the progress that rewards a team that is able to dig beyond the obvious numbers.

Year	Age	Team	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2001	18	Kingsport	23	.141	.253	.282	.535
2001	18	Total	23	.141	.253	.282	.535
2002	19	Columbia	37	.177	.262	.210	.472
2002	19	Brooklyn	66	.183	.277	.259	.536
2002	19	Total	103	.181	.268	.241	.509
2003	20	Capital City	105	.180	.297	.259	.556
2003	20	Total	105	.180	.297	.259	.556
2004	21	St. Lucie	124	.219	.303	.337	.640
2004	21	Norfolk	6	.250	.286	.300	.586
2004	21	Total	130	.220	.303	.336	.638
2005	22	St. Lucie	68	.260	.347	.487	.834
2005	22	Binghamton	56	.226	.305	.384	.689
2005	22	Total	124	.246	.330	.445	.775

Still has a long way to go, but it looks like the Mets are being somewhat rewarded for refusing to do what you demanded they do --- cut him loose and cut their losses. Why should I forget? I like the Mets.

[nymr83]

strikeouts is also a narrow measure on offense, as errors are on defense

I agree that strikeouts aren't much different from other outs in the majors. But when evaluating a prospect's numbers i hate to see lots of K's in the low minors- if you can't hit the mostly fastballs and changes there how the hell are you going to make contact in the majors?

I'm pretty sure guys who K alot in the low minors are less successful in general than those who post similiar ba/obp/slg numbers but with their outs not coming from k's. maybe i'll check this out later i dont really want to start a research project right now and this would be a pretty big undertaking.

[Guest Hawkeye57]

My favorite player is, of course, Mike Piazza, but I have a feeling he is just getting too old for the catching job. I think after his contract is up this year (I think), they should really think about leaving him in or taking him out. My friend who loves Mike Piazza would die to see him gone.

But the point is we need younger guys that can perform better under pressure and in a winning point of view. If we are winning we need a catcher than can stop the runner at home and can bat solidly.

I have noticed that Mike Piazza can hit, I mean really hit. But home runs are one part of the game. What matters that most is scoring and then defending your lead. All in all, Jacobs and Castro could both perform better than Piazza.

[MFS62]

Edgy,
Nice work.

As a fellow Mets fan, I also want to see every prospect develop to become a productive contributor to team success. And the numbers show that he has made improvement. The team has obviously put time and effort into trying to make him better, and that have succeeded to a degree. But when you get right down to it, he is still hitting below .250 in AA ball. This is the year the Mets must make a decision on adding him to the 40 man roster or exposing him to the Rule V Draft. Based on what you found, would you do it if you were them? At the expense of what other prospects who are higher rated?

If you recall, I said this:

With me, Ragsdale is an emotional subject, not really a statistical one. I only used his number of errors in comparison to his RBI to make a point about how bad his offense is.

This weekend I remembered a few quotes that maybe explain how that relates to my felings about Ragsdale.

That inspirational speaker who shows up on talk shows a lot -the guy with the expensive suit, great tan and hair and bright teeth (Tony Roberts?) has said "People will spend more time, money and effort movng away from pain than they will to move toward pleasure".

and, in a sales class I once took, the instructor said:
"People buy based on emotion, then justify it with reason".

I would have taken the less expensive approach. I guess that makes me a typical consumer.

To date, I don't feel that the time, effort and money spent on him has resulted in enough benefit. And since this is emotional, there are no numbers of what he has achieved so far that can change my mind.
But you made a good try.

Later