David Wright: A Rookie Year

[Guest Edgy DC]

David Wright has been very hot, going .429 // .500 // .643 // 1.143 over the last four days. The reason I bring that up is because it was July 20th that four days ago was the anniversary of Wright's callup to the big leagues.

Subtracting those last four games, we can get a snapshot of what Wright's first year looks like against the standard of a complete season.

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	SF	SH	HbP	GiDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
161	600	98	176	43	2	28	90	307	55	105	14	4	3	0	7	17	.293	.360	.512	.871

[Guest Edgy DC]

So, pretending that's an actual season, it would have exceeded (In mostcases, seriously exceeded) the Met rookie records for at-bats (Ty Wigginton, 573, 2002), runs (Cleon Jones, 74, 1966), hits (Wigginton, 146, 2002), doubles (Wigginton, 36, 2002), home runs, (Darryl Strawberry, 26, 1983), extra-base hits (Wigginton, 53, 2002), runs batted in (Strawberry, 74, 1983), total bases (I'm assuming this one), and batting average (.275, Jones, 1966).

It ties the Strawberry's 1983 slugging mark of .512. I can't find any rookie standards for on-base percentage or walks, but he's likely exceeded those also.

[Guest holychicken]

Yeah, I agree. Wright sucks.

[MFS62]

Interesting.
Bill James wrote that you can get a pretty good preview of a player's career by looking at his first 500 AB in the majors.
Whether 500 or 600 is better (I know, more data is better for basing projections), it looks like Mr. Wright is meeting the expectations we had for him. And he seems to have come back from the All Star break well rested. He had been in a mild slump prior to the ASB.

Of course, there are exceptions. Sometimes swings can occur when players are traded to different leagues/ teams/ ballparks.
IIRC, Paul O'Neill had about a .265 BA in over 3,000 AB in the National league at the time he was traded to the Yanks. He went on to hit over .300 in more AB there for the rest of his career. (Statistics on broken water coolers with each team are unavailable at this time.)
I attributed that to the fact that at that time, the NL was more of a fastball league and the AL more of a breaking ball league, and Paul had what was called "slider bat speed".
Didn't mean to hijack your thread. Good job. But I try never to miss a chance to slam the AL and the Yanks in general and O'Neill in particular.

Later

[metirish]

Wright compares well to Miguel Cabrera's first full year in the majors, 2004 he played 160 games, his numbers were..

Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2004 FLA 160 603 101 177 31 1 33 112 68 148 5 2 .294 .366 .512 .879

Now when you keep in mind the Mets fell apart last year in the second half, I don't know if Wright will be knocking in a 130 RBI anytime soon but 100+ should be in reach.

[seawolf17]

Can we trade this Wright guy? I bet he has some trade value.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Wright for Tom Gordon NOW!!!

A-Rod can move into centerfield and we could totally use the bullpen help!

[seawolf17]

Better! Wright for Ty Wigginton and Jose Mesa!

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Where are those emoticons when we need them?

[smg58]

It's been my impression that it's not so much the first 500 or 600 AB, but the second year that really tells the tale. (At least for hitters; for pitchers it might take longer.) That's good news for Wright, but so-so news for Reyes. (I'm treating this year as Reyes' second because last year kept getting interrupted.)

[Guest Edgy DC]

By the way, I got those rookie records from the Mets site and some of them are definitiely wrong. For one, it hadn't been updated to include Ty Wigginton's 2002 season. So I had to fill in those. But also, I'm looking at that batting average record by Cleon Jones. That's not right. Hubie Brooks hit .307 in 1981 while getting enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

[Guest rpackrat]

]It's been my impression that it's not so much the first 500 or 600 AB, but the second year that really tells the tale. (At least for hitters; for pitchers it might take longer.) That's good news for Wright, but so-so news for Reyes. (I'm treating this year as Reyes' second because last year kept getting interrupted.)

Reyes is not having as bad a year as osme people suppose. Baseball Prospectus has his VORP at 16.8, which ranks 5th among NL shortstops. When you consider how young he is, I still think he's going to be a star.

[Elster88]

I wonder how old he really is.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Just took Francis deep.

Maybe he can set some sophomore records.

[Guest old original jb]

How should I feel about the fact that so many Mets rookie records belong to Ty Wigginton?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Frustrated perhaps less with the Mets inability to produce better rookies than Ty than their historical unwillingness to give many rookies regular jobs out of camp.

Also, a few better rookies came up during pitchers' eras, when compiling number stats was a little big harder, and two solid rookie campaigns --- those of Hubie Brooks and Mookie Wilson ---- were cut short from their compilation potential by the 1981 players' strike.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: Frustrated perhaps less with the Mets inability to produce better rookies than Ty than their historical unwillingness to give many rookies regular jobs out of camp.

Edgy, I feel the opposite. I have been very frustrated with the inability of the Mets to scout, sign and develop position players over the years. You know, the kind of players who can step right in and contribute immediately Unfortunately, the types (levels) of players who they have brought up generally had to be slowly integrated into the lineup to get comfortable because of a lack of developed or natural talent. Or, if immediately inserted into the lineup, were unable to meet the challenge of playing every day.

Later


Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, then, we should all be pig-in-slop happy now.

Wow many tmes have the Mets presented two such talented yet similarly inexperienced batters day-in, day-out in their lineup? Comparisons all seem to fall short. Jones and Swoboda? Wilson and Brooks? Jefferies and Elster? Kent and Hundley?

[MFS62]

And my point was that there are huge time gaps in the examples you gave. (And reminding you that Kent was the product of another organization and was arguably the most productive hitter of the bunch). As I mentioned, I have been frustrated that there has been no steady stream of players ready to take regular spots in the lineup over the years.
And that is something I am not happy about, pig-in-slop or not.

You mentioned what has been more frustrating to you. I disagreed. No need to get sarcastic about it.

Later

edit: changed one word.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I didn't get nasty.

It was not my intention to come across as anything like nasty.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: I didn't get nasty.

I know. I changed that word with my edit. Colorful metaphor, though.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

If that's sarcastic, it certainly wasn't aimed at you.

It was more like hyperbolic. Not sarcastic.

[MFS62]

Feeling overly sensitive (paranoid?) today.
Thanks for the clarification.

But I really did laugh at the porcine turn of phrase.

Later

[Elster88]

Just looked over his UMDB page, memories and all that for the first time. I'm pretty happy being me, but sometimes I think it'd be cool to be Wright.

[Willets Point]

If you were you'd be contractualy obligated to stay out of bars.