3 Reasons Why Marcus Semien Will Bounce Back With the Mets, and 3 Reasons Why He Won't

[Tom Gatto]

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

As with most team developments, New York Mets fans were not happy last November when the club acquired second baseman Marcus Semien in a trade with the Texas Rangers in exchange for outfielder Brandon Nimmo. The doomscrolling denizens of Mets Twitter were highly perturbed that team president David Stearns dealt away a fan favorite for a guy who looked washed.

Were they right about the washed part? Well, they could point to the steep decline in Semien's offense over the past two years, from a 128 wRC+ in 2023 to a 101 wRC+ in 2024 and an 89 wRC+ in 2025, which was his worst output over a full season. They could also claim he was falling apart physically; he missed the Rangers' final 33 games last year with a foot contusion, and now he's entering his age-35 campaign.

The response to the dissatisfied is that there's enough underlying data to argue Semien is a bounce-back candidate in 2026.  Here are three reasons why he will rebound -- and three reasons why he won't:

Why Marcus Semien Will Bounce Back In 2026

Semien's contact has not gotten worse. His 88.3 mph average exit velocity, 35.0 percent hard-hit rate and 6.7 percent barrel rate last year were all in line with his numbers from the previous three seasons. His average launch angle bounced back to 19.4 degrees in 2025, in line with results dating to 2020. His bat speed is slow (eighth percentile in 2025), but it did increase by a tenth of an mph to 68.4 in 2025. If the ball keeps coming off the bat the same and he gets better luck than last year's .251 BABIP, then better results should follow.

He'll be hitting in a better lineup. Semien is going from a club that ranked 22nd in runs per game last year to a club that ranked ninth. Obviously, the Mets' lineup was revamped over the offseason -- Stearns essentially swapped out Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil for Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Semien. The top six most days will be Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bichette, Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Brett Baty. Those guys should present Semien with a lot of RBI opportunities from the seven-hole.

He'll be hitting in a better home park. Citi Field rates as friendlier to right-handed hitters than Globe Life Field in Arlington. Last season, Citi ranked 25th in MLB with a 95 park factor for righty swingers (100 is considered league-average), while Globe Life ranked dead last at 90. The ball just does not carry well in the retractable-roof stadium. Semien said in spring training that he remains intent on pulling the ball in the air. His pull air percentage last year was slightly down at 23.8 percent, but that was still above average. Driving the ball to the pull side in a better hitting environment should at least help him improve on last year's career-low .364 slugging percentage.

Why He Won't

He couldn't handle the hard stuff last year. This is the biggest red flag. His numbers against four-seamers tanked -- he produced a career-worst minus-5 run value against the pitch. His 36.0 percent hard-hit rate and .235 xBA against it were way down from previous seasons. Consequently, his .391 slugging percentage on the pitch was significantly lower as well. The naysayers can carp that the old man can't catch up to the heater anymore.

He's making less contact overall. His Z-contact rate (contact on pitches in the strike zone) fell by just one point in 2025 to 88.0 percent, but his O-contact rate (contact on pitches outside the zone) dropped by 5.7 points, to 52.2 percent. That could be attributed to opponents working him differently. He saw larger percentages of sinkers, cutters, split-fingers, and curveballs, and smaller percentages of four-seamers, sliders and changeups, in 2025 compared to 2024. His overall whiff rate ticked up by 2.4 points from 2024, and so it followed that his K rate, while still good, increased by 2.8 points to 17.4 percent last year.

His plate appearances will drop by a lot. Semien regularly made 700 or more PAs in a season as a leadoff hitter, but he's looking at a sizable decrease hitting in the lower third of his new club's order. The outlook will be even more grim if he misses time with an injury again.

Verdict

Semien will return to being league average if he stays healthy. His preseason wRC+ projections back up that claim; they ranged from 95 (OOPSY) to 105 (THE BAT X), with most of the others in the range of 100 to 103. His 30-100-100 days appear to be over, but 20-70-70 looks realistic. It's fair to assume the Mets would take those latter numbers from their seventh hitter.

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[metirish]

Good article, Mets are banking big that Semien has a good year, I have my doubts, but am very curious to see him play full-time