Expansion and Realignment (split from Aug 17 IGT)

[Centerfield]

Did you eliminate the Tigers?

 

Wait. I did something wrong.

There's 30 teams right? I must have listed a team twice.

[Centerfield]

I see the problem. I just misnumbered. Tigers have been reinstated!

[Edgy MD]

I am pretty sure the realignment will be coming with expansion, and you will get 32 to work with.

I imagine pending relocations of Sacramento and perhaps Tampa Bay will have to come either first or concurrently with the plan, though.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Manfred recently said that he's become optimistic that the Rays will stay in Tampa/St. Pete. I don't know what he based that one because the article was behind a firewall; I was just able to read the first paragraph.

It seems likely that one of the two expansion teams will be in the west, Portland or Salt Lake City. Maybe both, but it seems like Tennessee or North Carolina also have a pretty good shot.

[Gwreck]

All WC and DS series are played within your own time zone. There are no cross-country flights until the LCS.

 

The West divisions in this proposal here are across three time zones (and in most every other proposal, to be fair).

It’s part of why we know Manfred is full of it when he talks about travel. There aren’t enough teams in the Pacific/Mountain time zones, so there are always going to be theee-time-zone divisions. Maybe if they award expansion franchises to both Portland and Salt Lake City that changes the balance enough, but as Ben Grimm flagged, it seems likely that Raleigh/Charlotte/Nashville gets one of the new teams.

[Edgy MD]

Yabbut ... maybe his Tampa/St. Pete optimism is as much of a smokescreen as his commitment to letting pitchers bat because Bartolo Colón was so entertaining.

Maybe the Rays are heading west and he just can't say so yet.

[Frayed Knot]

The West divisions in this proposal here are across three time zones (and in most every other proposal, to be fair).

It’s part of why we know Manfred is full of it when he talks about travel.

 

That's why I think, if and when this [expansion + realignment] gets done they're going to blow up the entire system and base the leagues (or whatever they'll call them) on an east/west basis the way the NBA & NHL do. So the end result might look something like CF's vision only with the two western divisions teams grouped together and the two east ones as well. Travel is part of it but Manfred specifically spoke, even if just casually and with a 'nothing's set in stone' disclaimer, about wanting to regionalize the early playoff round(s) so as to keep matchups within a time zone or two rather than across three or four. So the goal is more a TV ratings ploy than it is strictly a travel savings.

[Centerfield]

All WC and DS series are played within your own time zone. There are no cross-country flights until the LCS.

 

The West divisions in this proposal here are across three time zones (and in most every other proposal, to be fair).

It’s part of why we know Manfred is full of it when he talks about travel. There aren’t enough teams in the Pacific/Mountain time zones, so there are always going to be theee-time-zone divisions. Maybe if they award expansion franchises to both Portland and Salt Lake City that changes the balance enough, but as Ben Grimm flagged, it seems likely that Raleigh/Charlotte/Nashville gets one of the new teams.

 

So yes, sloppy wording. All WC and DS are played as close to your time zone as possible, and against teams within your division.

My proposal is designed to:

(a) satisfy Manfred's gripes about a Dodgers-Mets Wild Card Series

( maintain the leagues and traditional rivalries

© restore meaning to division titles

Manfred can certainly scrap the AL/NL and go completely geographically. But the only round of playoffs that would affect is the LCS. And you figure the LCS is important enough that fans would watch anyway.

That small bump in viewership hardly seems worth it to scrap 150 years of tradition. But what the hell do I know.

[Frayed Knot]

For the upcoming final weekend of regular season NFL action:

- in the NFC South there is a chance for a two-way, or even three-way [CAR, TB, ATL], tie for first place where all teams wind up at 8-9. Only Carolina can clinch outright with a win because they're the only one of the three with even a chance at finishing over .500 (9-8)

- the AFC North, where Pittsburgh and Baltimore are playing each other (Sunday Night), will wind up either with both teams tied for the division crown at 9-8, or with the Steelers at a lofty 10-7 and the Ravens at 8-9

Remember situations like these when anyone tries to sell you the glories of MLB restructured into eight four-team divisions.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. I'd much rather see four eights than eight fours.

[Edgy MD]

I stand in steadfast if quixotic defense of two 16s — or, ideally, one 32.

[Gwreck]

Remember situations like these when anyone tries to sell you the glories of MLB restructured into eight four-team divisions.

 

Presumably there’d be a lot more to worry about if MLB had a 17 game schedule.

(Note this is not an argument in favor of 4-team divisions.)

[Frayed Knot]

Yes, a shorter schedule makes quirks like this more likely, although it's tough to even call them quirks when the NFL has had division winners with a .500 (twice) or sub-500 (4) record six times in the last 17 seasons (7 of 18 if the Panthers lose tonight)* so it's not exactly a rarity. And what greatly contributes to this is the low number of teams per division and the small percentage of in-division games (6 of 17 = 35% and soon to go down to 6/18) on the schedule. iow, it's not just one of those things, it's virtually inevitable.

Some here may have forgotten (or intentionally blanked their minds) that MLB was on its way to potentially having Two sub-500 division winners when the strike wiped out the remainder of the 1994 season, and it's likely not a coincidence that both cases came from the divisions with only four teams in each during that 14-team/lg era.

- the AL West was a collective 57 games under .500 when the season was called off with the 52-62 Rangers at the top of the hill. Only a 30-18 or better finish would have prevented a losing division winner so this one was a virtual certainty had the season been played to its conclusion.

- in the NL, the Dodgers won five of their final seven games to up their record to 58-56 after leading the division for all of late July and early August with a sub-.500 mark. Nobody else was within five games of the break-even mark when play was halted.

And, unlike football fans, seeing an under break-even team declared a winner and advance to the playoffs would actually bother baseball fans. The only thing NFL fans seem to object to is that these mediocre (or worse) division winners are granted home-field in playoff games over WC teams ... as if 'fixing' that would solve the issue.

* and if you expand the definition to include those division champs with their heads just barely above water [9-7, 9-8, 8-7-1] the number probably triples

[Frayed Knot]

And the NFL WILL have a sub-.500 (8-9) team advance to their post-season in 2025-26 (for the 5th time in 18 seasons). The only question remains which team.

Carolina is declared the winner in a three-way playoff (Atlanta wins on Sunday) but not a two-way playoff (Atlanta loses).

Hope Manfred et al are taking notes.

[Edgy MD]

“We don’t believe in a playoff system because of the tradition and history of baseball.A playoff system would be in contradiction to these traditions. You can have teams finishing fourth or fifth percentage-wise and then playing the champion of the other league in the World Series. We do not believe the public will accept this. The World Series is the greatest event in sports, and it is dangerous to tamper with it.”

— NL President Warren Giles, speaking to The Associated Press, 1968

Giles, of course, was mocked, but he was not wrong. Not from my perspective, anyhow.

In what would have been a fun sort of chaos, there was a very real chance that the American League was going to switch to division play in 1969 while Giles and the NL stuck with one big homogenous, 12-team bunch.

As with so many shortsighted rule changes, the Mets were held up as an object lesson, as AL President Joe Cronin came back with “You can’t sell a 12th-place club. Who wants a lot of second-division clubs?”

Of course, that club destined for perpetual second-division status and presumably a regular 12th-place finisher won the world championship in the first year of division play.

[Frayed Knot]

Manfred went on the radio last week (with Craig freakin' Carton of all people!!) and when the topic of expansion/realignment came up he of course

immediately went to a target of 32 teams with eight four-team divisions.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Didn't he also say something about split seasons, which would be another terribly awful idea?

[Frayed Knot]

Not splitting a season into halves a la 1981, more like interrupting (for lack of a better word) the season for an in-season tourney such as the NBA has been doing for the last 2-3 seasons. Either way it's still a terribly awful idea (I don't even understand the whys and hows behind the NBA version) and, especially with rising attendance since the advent of the sped-up game, it's not clear what about the regular season he thinks needs spicing up.

Manfred likes to float ideas out there, probably to gauge reaction -- as opposed to Selig who wouldn't even mention an idea until it was a done deal -- so this doesn't mean anything is set in stone.

[Edgy MD]

My experience is that, in today's America, when a big shot executive floats ideas, a LOT of smart-but-small toadies hustle to work trying to make it a reality.

I have a pitched a mid-season week-long break, but as a showcase for celebrations and featured games, but Manfred doesn't hear me.

[Frayed Knot]

I have a weird analogy concerning the last two MLB commissions, but I'm sticking with it anyway: Selig and Manfred are the Bob Dole and Newt Gingrich of commissioners.

Bob Dole was a Republican leader, in title or otherwise, like, forever. But he never had his name on a single piece of legislation unless it was one of those tack-on co-sponsor deals. He simply worked behind the scenes, made deals, counted votes, and didn't get out in front of an issue until he knew the vote was going in his party's favor.

Selig was like this. Keeping all his cards close to the vest and only announcing a new policy once he knew the votes were in the bag.

Gingrich, on the other hand, used to throw out ten ideas a week only to have his own staff tell him that seven were non-starters and should never be mentioned again while two others could maybe pass in the future but only after heavy editing. That left him no choice but to turn his energies to the one good idea from his list.

This is more the way Manfred governs, not afraid to publicly air fifteen changes that MLB might consider before eventually settling for the two or three best received ones.

[Edgy MD]

Dole was the Americans with Disability Act, man.

I mean, that was clearly an exception, but ... .

[Edgy MD]

But the analogy tends to work, nonetheless.

Probably the biggest deal on Selig's watch was a relatively one — the merger of the National and American Leagues into one MLB entity.

[Frayed Knot]

An article in today's Athletic talks about the aggressiveness of Salt Lake City on the topic of sports expansion.

At first the NBA's Jazz was the only (pro) game in town but they've added hockey and are going after MLB's

rumored expansion later this decade. SLC has already been named the site of the 2036 Winter Olympics.

Athletic: Readiness has put Utah at an advantage. While other cities announced their entries into MLB expansion consideration with renderings and merch, Salt Lake City arrived with a 100-acre site, a coalition of prominent Utahns, broad bipartisan support, a plan for public funding and a reputable anchor investor.

City and state officials are not subtle about their aspirations. They want Salt Lake City to be a larger dot on the map. Part of their plan is to continue building a robust sports scene. “We need baseball to kind of round it out,” says Stuart Adams, Utah’s Senate President. “Then we’ll go after something else later — that other sport.” (The NFL.)

The market is already bigger than you’d think, yet not nearly as big as it could become. The population of the Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem corridor, now nearly 3 million, has roughly doubled since MLB last expanded in 1998. That surge is one of the forces driving the evolution of Utah sports, as are the state’s economic forecast and its pro-business, sports-friendly legislature.

[Edgy MD]

It'll never not be weird how you need political action to get a baseball team going.