Roster problems/resolutions

[Lefty Specialist]

Baty's hit AAA pitching well. He has a Triple-A OPS of .899 (and a major league OPS of .601). So it's reasonable to assume he'll hit when he goes to the 'Cuse. What he needs is a chance to play every day, and he's not going to get that with the Mets. There'll be other teams looking for a cheap controllable third baseman this winter. I hope a team gives him a chance and he does well.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Like I said, Lefty, post_id=190258 time=1745193574 user_id=128]
What exactly is the downside of giving Baty a few hundred more ABs? Possibly stunting Danny Young's career?

[roger_that]

Lefty Specialist wrote: I hope a team gives him a chance and he does well.

I hope that team is the Mets.



You're ignoring the reason he's hit so much better in AAA than in MLB. Why is that?



Your answer seems to be that he's not good enough to hit major league pitching, just good enough to kill AAA pitching. There are very few hitters (I can't think of any, offhand) who fit that description. Given enough opportunities a man who OPSes .900 in AAA will hit major league pitching. Maybe not at a .900 clip, but close enough, and certainly better than your average MLB .700 OPSer. And what accounts for his good showing in spring training?



Is this what you think about Baty? That he's an emotional headcase, that he cracks under pressure, that he lacks "character" or "toughness" or maybe that he's got some weakness that MLB-level pitchers take advantage of but AAA pitchers can't? None of that makes much sense to me.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Like I said, Lefty post_id=190306 time=1745259404 user_id=128]


Your answer seems to be that he's not good enough to hit major league pitching, just good enough to kill AAA pitching. There are very few hitters (I can't think of any, offhand) who fit that description.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Baty's a lifetime .214 hitter, ferchrissakes. He's not even hitting that much, this season. But yeah, there's no downside to Baty hitting .200 over another two or three or four hundred plate appearances this season. Maybe the Mets should also look to trade Pete Alonso for another first baseman who hits major league pitching like Baty does. No downside there, either. And think of all the money the Mets'd save.

[roger_that]

Lefty Specialist wrote: What he needs is a chance to play every day

This argument also has its flaws, Lefty. The counterargument (which I think plausible, though not complete) is that, like most lefthanded batters, Baty doesn't hit lefties well (he has a platoon disadvantage of .170 OPS which is larger than average), so it could well be argued that what he needs is NOT to play every day but to play mainly against righties. I don't know if he had that same kind of split against lefties in AAA but it looks to me that he put up impressive numbers while batting every day in AAA. I suspect that his .899 OPS might have been even higher if he were used more selectively there.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, you may love him, but Baty has no place on this team. Vientos is set at third for the foreseeable future, groin irritation permitting. Baty's not a second baseman and looks tentative there. McNeil is the starter, for better or worse. Acuna is the capable backup, not only there, but at short and third as well as being a pinch-runner par excellence.



There's no room for Brett Baty. He was given the third base job at the beginning of last year and he gave it back. What he needs is to go back to Syracuse and rake. Then if Vientos or McNeil or Acuna get injured he gets another chance. But you don't turn your team inside out just to get Brett F'n Baty plate appearances.



We'll have to disagree. You think Baty needs more time to prove himself. I think he'll be a minor transaction over the winter. So it goes.

[roger_that]

No problem disagreeing, Lefty. You may be right and we won't find out any time soon.



But let me ask you this: you say that Baty might hook onto another team over the winter and you hope he does well there.



Why? Why, that is, would you think that was even possible? He's a bum, a no-talent, a never-was-and-never-will-be.



My thinking is he's not any of those. I wouldn't bet my house on him becoming a star, or even a regular, at some point soon, but I would bet a considerable amount on it.



I think a lot of Mets fans (not necessarily you) are frustrated with Baty's performance in the major leagues so far (I am too) and are angry with him over it. (I am not.) They feel he has cheated them, teased them with stellar AAA numbers, deceived them with spectacular spring trainings, and then let them down by failing to deliver on his promise in the bigs. Me, I think they're impatient, and they're imputing all sorts of character flaws (which I don't believe exist, in Baty's case particularly but also in general), and I think that if he does go to another organization and he performs well there, they're going to be even angrier with him.



I'm reminded of Justin Turner--pretty good hitter in AAA, .805 OPS in 831 ABs--who didn't show much in his first four years with the Mets (or with the Orioles, with whom he had 31 big league at-bats), but when the Dodgers picked him up he turned into a star. I think he had star talent all along, it just took a while to manifest itself, and I think that's what's going on with Baty now.



As to McNeil, I think the Mets are thinking of him as a CFer (in rehab anyway) because if he plays there, rather than Acuna (who's probably a better CFer than Squirrel), then they've got a R/L platoon at CF and at 2B. If they put Acuna out there, then they've got two righties in CF and two lefty 2B men, which is a problem. How bad could McNeil be in center? We may find out.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=roger_that post_id=190325 time=1745278803 user_id=128]




I think a lot of Mets fans (not necessarily you) are frustrated with Baty's performance in the major leagues so far (I am too) and are angry with him over it. (I am not.) They feel he has cheated them, teased them with stellar AAA numbers, deceived them with spectacular spring trainings, and then let them down by failing to deliver on his promise in the bigs.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

Discussion in the booth about this. Gary says he thinks the both stay, and Azocar and Senger headed down. He noted that Acuna, McNeil, Marte and Winker can all play outfield.

[roger_that]

Bob Alpacadaca wrote: Discussion in the booth about this. Gary says he thinks the both stay, and Azocar and Senger headed down. He noted that Acuna, McNeil, Marte and Winker can all play outfield.

Yeah, the sticking point is that none of them is really a backup CFer at this point. But I hope they'll make McNeil into their platoon CFer with Taylor and continue to platoon Baty and Acuna at 2B, Winker and Marte at DH.



I also hope that when Manaea gets back, they'll send a reliever down.

[Lefty Specialist]

Jeff McNeil cannot play CF, full stop. Acuna might be able to pull it off, but not Jeff. If McNeil is playing the outfield, it's in left, with Nimmo sliding over to center.

[roger_that]

That's a good point. But why are they giving McNeil innings in CF during his rehab if not to see how he handles the position? Certainly not because it's easy or fun to learn a new position. Maybe they're concerned about Nimmo's ability to play CF at this point?

[MFS62]

Nimmo's range has been shrinking faster than a Dollar Store undershirt. It has been a concern for years, and is why they moved him to left field. Gilbert was just promoted to AAA, so the solution may be on the way soon.

Later

[roger_that]

For those remaining Baty-haters on this site (he hit a 2-run homer today, the only two runs against the Phillies for 8 innings, so they may be scurrying for cover around now), I'd cite the case of Nelson Cruz, a great example of someone who did not do well in his first three attempts at MLB: in 478 plate appearances with the Brewers and Rangers in 2005, 2006, and 2007 he had a lousy .666 OPS. I'm sure fans were eager to give up on him at that juncture, but he came through with a near-HoF career starting at age 27. He had been putting up impressive AAA numbers in the .900+ range while shuttling back and forth to the minors, just like Baty, but just not hitting MLB pitchers yet. Eventually he did. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cruz--002nelhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cruz--002nel



Not sure if those numbers were put up in a hitters' league (the PCL was a hitters' league at some point, but I'm not sure of this specific period) but he was very comparable to Baty at this stage of his career. I could understand the continued skepticism expressed if we were turning down a star veteran at a position we desperately needed immediate help at, but this whole "shitcan the miserable guy" thing I do not get. He's a valuable player, and I want the Mets to get that value.

[Lefty Specialist]

Not scurrying. Baty's a weak bat. One swing doesn't change that.



Doesn't change the fact that he has no position once McNeil gets back. And for every Nelson Cruz there are a hundred guys you never heard of because they came to the major leagues, didn't hit, got sent down and never surfaced again. They went into insurance sales and real estate.



Baty's a peculiar hill to die on. Acuna's a better player at second. Vientos is a better player at third. Jeff McNeil actually has a major league track record, including (checks notes) a National League batting title. Baty has boyish good looks.



What we think doesn't matter. It's what David Stearns thinks. Alvarez and McNeil are coming back Friday and decisions need to be made.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I could understand the continued skepticism expressed if we were turning down a star veteran at a position we desperately needed immediate help at, but this whole "shitcan the miserable guy" thing I do not get. He's a valuable player, and I want the Mets to get that value.

Yeah, sure, Lefty. Whatever you say. There's enormous value in a career negative WARer with a lifetime BA under .220. With today's HR, Baty finally topped the Mendoza Line for 2025. But only a star should replace him? (You: I could understand the continued skepticism expressed if we were turning down a star veteran....) Unless Baty is replaced by Mike Trout, Baty will have enormous value? Is that what you're saying?



Everybody here wants Baty to succeed. You're not the only one. We're all Mets fans. But this is the classic case of a team's need to prepare for its future by developing prospects balanced against the urgent need to win in the immediate here and now. The Mets won't say this publicly, but they're not playing for just a playoff spot. They're playing for a first round bye. So there's no margin for error. And the Mets can't afford to give hundreds of plate appearances to someone who's gonna hit like Baty's been hitting for his entire career. If these Mets were Casey's Polo Grounds Mets, then they could play Baty till he collapses from exhaustion for all I care. But this is not the case.



Whooppdeedoo. Baty hit a HR today. So now he's on track, as you would say every ten minutes, to bat .208 with about five, six or seven HR's over a full season. Let's give Baty a parade on Broadway.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Doesn't change the fact that he has no position once McNeil gets back. And for every Nelson Cruz there are a hundred guys you never heard of because they came to the major leagues, didn't hit, got sent down and never surfaced again.

Of course, Lefty. I like the way he cherry-picks. At least he dropped the Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente analogies.

[roger_that]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Not scurrying. Baty's a weak bat. One swing doesn't change that. Doesn't change the fact that he has no position once McNeil gets back.

Sure he does--mostly as the lefthanded half of a platoon with Acuna at second base. McNeil can play the outfield, get a few ABs at 2B, 3B, PH, LF, DH a bit maybe, become a utility guy. You're looking at his numbers from when he was in his 20s and wishing they'll come back again. I'm looking at his numbers in his 30s and saying "Probably not." Certainly not worth throwing away Baty's potential on. Baty's numbers in AAA are Vientos-level numbers and his age tells me he's yet to reach his peak.

Lefty Specialist wrote: . And for every Nelson Cruz there are a hundred guys you never heard of because they came to the major leagues, didn't hit, got sent down and never surfaced again. They went into insurance sales and real estate.

Not guys who slugged better than .900 OPS in AAA for years while being called up to MLB and slugging well under .700 there. I was challenged to tell you who was in Baty's position and succeeded. You didn't care for my small sample size examples like Mays, Kaline, and Clemente, so I found you a more relevant comparison. Now you hand-wave that one away too. No matter how many I supply (and they're rare, because it's peculiar that a guy who hits in AAA DOESN'T make a big dent at the MLB level when he gets called up) you can handwave away all of them too.

Lefty Specialist wrote: Baty's a peculiar hill to die on.

I'm surprisingly comfortable up here.

Lefty Specialist wrote: Acuna's a better player at second. Vientos is a better player at third. Jeff McNeil actually has a major league track record, including (checks notes) a National League batting title. Baty has boyish good looks.

Well, he's played a pretty good 2B, too, wouldn't you agree? Certainly competent. I notice you dropped the "defensive superiority" bit when it came to McNeil --that was smart of you, because to claim that would make you appear foolish. McNeil is probably Baty's defensive inferior at 2B at this point, and certainly in the future--McNeil hasn't looked great at second the past few years, and his age doesn't hold out much hope his range or hands will improve miraculously. Baty is still learning a new position, and should improve over the next few weeks or months defensively. McNeil can still hit enough to fill in at LF while Nimmo moves to CF against righties (and Nimmo looked pretty agile in the outfield yesterday, agreed?). Jose Reyes is also a former NL batting champion but I don't want him in my starting lineup on that account. Nor Tommy Davis.

Lefty Specialist wrote: What we think doesn't matter. It's what David Stearns thinks. Alvarez and McNeil are coming back Friday and decisions need to be made.

So we should shut down the entire CPF? After all, what we say here is meaningless. I doubt David Stearns peruses the CPF more than three or four times every week, but if he does--Hi, Dave!!!!--I now think he's going to keep Baty on the MLB roster for a few hundred more big-league ABs on the chance that his contributions to the Mets are just getting started. When we started this thread, I felt Baty was going to be sent down when McNeil came back, but now I don't, mainly because I think Stearns is a smart guy.



New topic: Did you see the shot Baty belted yesterday? That was an extraordinary HR. I think they said 425 feet, something like that. Off Wheeler. Kept us in the game when no one else was hitting, allowed us a chance for an extra inning win. I think he's got more arrows in his quiver.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=roger_that post_id=190246 time=1745188914 user_id=128]
And Al Kaline began his career 2-for-13, both singles. Mays started out 1-for-26. Your point?



I'd say it's that small sample sizes mean very little. Which is an argument for Baty, rather than against him.