Early Fire Sale Chatter

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is from USA Today:

Bob Nightengale wrote: The New York Mets could be the epicenter of the trade deadline with a handful of their prized players expected to be dealt. They haven't begun yet, but will soon shop first baseman Pete Alonso, DH J.D. Martinez, starters Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, relievers Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman and Reed Garrett, infielder Jeff McNeil and outfielders Harrison Bader and Starling Marte.

My first thought was that I'd be surprised if they traded all eleven of those players.



My second thought was that they might actually trade all eleven of those players.



Marte and Manaea are both under team control for 2025, so they may be less likely to go. McNeil too, but he seems less unlikely.

[Edgy MD]

My first thought is "Where is the according to sources phrase?"



I mean, he doesn't even say they could shop them. He says they will shop them. There's no real risk there, as who knows who wasn't shopped among those not dealt, but Nightengale is a pro, and he's just right out there announcing the future.

[kcmets]

Four games out of the Wild Card on June 5th doesn't seem like the time

to talk about trading eleven players for lord knows what. I mean, didn't

Uncle Steve say about ten days ago he expects to make the playoffs? So,

as venerable as Mr. Nightengale is... let's please slow it up a bit for a few

more weeks at least please.

[Edgy MD]

'greed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think so too. I mainly posted this because I was surprised at the number of players he listed.

[Cowtipper]

Fire sale? What do I look like, an entrepreneurial arsonist? LOL, but seriously folks. Ditch anyone over 26 and start over.

[nymr83]

Four games out of the Wild Card on June 5th doesn't seem like the time...

But, he needs to post his clickbait as per the rules of modern "journalism."

[whippoorwill]

Didn't JD Martinez just GET here? Am I confusing him with someone?

[Benjamin Grimm]

No, he did just get here, but that doesn't mean he can't or won't be traded. Just ask Justin Verlander.

[Edgy MD]

The general restraint is that you can't trade a dude in the first half season of a multi-year contract. But J.D. is only signed for a single season, and it'll be past a half season by the time this trade urgency comes to a head, if indeed it does come to a head.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets are currently only 3.5 games out of the wild card race, albeit with six teams that they need to jump over.



I imagine that if they remain that close, and can pass three or more of those teams, the Mets will modestly "go for it" and not do a big selloff. At least, I would hope so. If there's a reasonable chance to get a toehold in the expanded playoffs, they should do it. In a string of short series, anything is possible. If their June (or their July) can manage to turn out like their April did, their outlook will be quite different.



I'm not predicting this, but hoping for it. What else can I do?

[metirish]

Amazing that the Mets can be 16.5 games out in the NL East, but still have a playoff shot , games gone

[batmagadanleadoff]

=metirish post_id=158131 time=1717703071 user_id=72]
Amazing that the Mets can be 16.5 games out in the NL East, but still have a playoff shot , games gone

[Edgy MD]

Oh, I totally hope for it. It's all there for the taking.



As bad as The Diamondbacks looked when the Mets played them, they are your defending National League champions.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: As bad as The Diamondbacks looked when the Mets played them, they are your defending National League champions.

Because MLB is now a stupid shitshow.

[Edgy MD]

So I read.

[Benjamin Grimm]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=158136 time=1717704581 user_id=68]
Because MLB is now a stupid shitshow.

[Cowtipper]

You knew MLB playoffs were a joke when the 2020 Astros, 29-31, made them.



I do wish to see many trades this trading deadline. They did pretty well last year in stocking up on young'uns and I hope they do it again in 2024. The Orioles were garbo from 2017 to 2021, yet now they're a winning club, multiple years running, in part because of all their (relatively) young talent.

[batmagadanleadoff]

According to Jim Bowden writing for The Athletic, the consensus is that the Mets will be sellers at the trade deadline. Bowden lists a few teams that, as of this writing, could go either way - buyers or sellers. The Mets are not one of Bowden's consensus either way teams.



The consensus is also that the Mets will be the center of attention at the deadline. Pete Alonso will be the best power hitter available, JD. Martinez, the best DH. And Luis Severino will be one of the best starting pitchers available.



Also, Bowden says that the Mets will pursue Alonso in the off-season if he's traded at the deadline because the Mets are still interested in him. Which begs the question: then why trade Alonso in the first place? I'm guessing that a trade and hopeful free agent re-signing is a high stakes gamble to acquire prospects while relinquishing Alonso for half a season that isn't going anywhere?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I've seen other consensus that says that the return in prospects for a half season of Alonso isn't going to be that impressive. If all they can get is a mediocre return, then it's probably better to keep him. But of course, if they do go into "sell mode", then they should certainly listen to what other teams are offering for Pete.

[Edgy MD]

First basemen aren't as fungible.



All teams need another reliever. Most every contenders could use another starting pitcher. You can find work for another outfielder, whether you need them or not. But historically, you only need one firstbaseman, and two is too many.



This became less true, of course, with the dawn of the DH, and markedly so since the onset of the universal DH, but it's still a meaningful reality. A team good enough to otherwise be in position to make a playoff run is pretty likely to already have an effective firstbaseman.



There only needs to be one team to ultimately serve as a trading partner, of course, but if it's only one team, and not a second team bidding them up, what will be offered will be less appealing.



Anyhow, I hope Alonso goes four-for-four with two walks against Miami tonight. The Cubs are three games ahead of the Mets on June 11th. I'll be damned if I'm sending them our firstbaseman.



I'll be damned if I'm sending them shit.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: First basemen aren't as fungible. All teams need another reliever. Most every contenders could use another starting pitcher. You can find work for another outfielder, whether you need them or not. But historically, you only need one firstbaseman, and two is too many.

Eight first basemen is also too many first basemen. But that doesn't mean that a first baseman isn't needed at all. I don't understand. Are you making a general across the board statement that teams don't need a first baseman? Because a contending team that needs a first baseman will be in the market for Alonso. Bowden himself lists about half a dozen teams that could pursue Alonso. If your first baseman is Jason Phillips ('03) or Tim Harkness ('63) or Doug Mientkiewicz ('05), you could use an upgrade.

[Edgy MD]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=158775 time=1718125852 user_id=68]I don't understand. Are you making a general across the board statement that teams don't need a first baseman?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=158775 time=1718125852 user_id=68]I don't understand. Are you making a general across the board statement that teams don't need a first baseman?

No, I'm not. I'm writing that firstbasemen aren't as fungible.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Also, I'm writing that, if your first baseman is Jason Phillips ('03) or Tim Harkness ('63) or Doug Mientkiewicz ('05), there's a good chance that you're well out of contention come the trade deadline.

But if that's not the case, then what? 40% of the teams now make the playoffs. It's not 1971 anymore. I don't see your point. Are you supposing that no one will pursue Alonso if he's made available?



And if no one wants Alonso, the Mets keep him. No harm. No foul.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think he's saying that there will be less demand for Alonso, because he may not be that much of an upgrade for most of the contending teams. So with less demand, comes less value in return.



If the Mets are sellers at the deadline, and they can get Pat Zachry, Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, and Dan Norman in return, then I guess they should do it. But if they get significantly less than that, which is very likely, I'd rather they kept Pete.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I think he's saying that there will be less demand for Alonso, because he may not be that much of an upgrade for most of the contending teams. So with less demand, comes less value in return.

That makes sense, and it's a point that's been well covered and understood.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets are sellers at the deadline, and they can get Pat Zachry, Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, and Dan Norman in return, then I guess they should do it. But if they get significantly less than that, which is very likely, I'd rather they kept Pete.

Me too. Agreed.

[Edgy MD]

What it means:



ON EDIT: it seems that while typing out what it means, it was laid out far more briefly and effectively. Thanks for the assist.



[CROSSOUT]Firstbasemen have a softer market at trading time, because few are needed, and almost everybody can play there, so the laws of supply and demand are not necessarily on the trading team's side.



The 1985 Cardinals needed a firstbaseman when Jack Clark got hurt down the stretch, but they got Cesar Cedeño who was mostly an outfielder and they stuck him there.



With Fred McGriff suddenly dealing with knee injuries and declining rapidly with the 2003 Dodgers, they went and got thirdbaseman Robin Ventura and stuck him there.



In both cases, laws of supply and demand worked in favor of the contending team looking to bulk up and against a team falling out of contention but having a firstbaseman to deal.



This is the opposite of the way leverage usually comes down at the deadline, when fading teams looking to deal tend to find a stronger market for most of their players.



That certainly doesn't mean a deal might not be available. The Yankees have the best record in the American League, and Anthony Rizzo is hitting pretty poorly at first and Giancarlo Stanton has only barely been carrying his weight at DH.[/CROSSOUT]

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I think he's saying that there will be less demand for Alonso, because he may not be that much of an upgrade for most of the contending teams. So with less demand, comes less value in return. That makes sense, and it's a point that's been well covered and understood.

On the other hand, 40% of the teams now make the playoffs. Which means that more than half of all teams will remain in the hunt for playoff spots. I doubt that more than half of the teams, the majority in other words, have a Keith Hernandez or a Glenn Davis or even a Lee May at first. There are only so many good first basemen out there and there certainly aren't enough for more than half the teams.