A Close Look at Díaz

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: All statistics are man-made.

Not really. A double, for example, is a double. To calculate how many doubles a player hits in a season, you simply have to count the doubles and add them up. The doubles total for any given player is indisputable, and 100% reliably accurate so long as the counting is accurate. There's nothing "man-made"abut a player's doubles totals, even though someone has to physically count them up or tabulate them.



But how accurate or reliable is WAR? It's a calculation, an estimate -- derived from man-made formulas WAR is not a natural stat. The two most influential or widely-used formulations for WAR -- BRef's and Fangraph's, differ. I have no idea which of the two is most preferable, but that they're different is telling. It tells us that WAR is not entirely precise. So there's obviously a built-in margin of error in WAR. By comparison, there's no margin of error in a player's doubles totals, not even a microscopic one, so long as the counting is accurate. Pete Alonso hit precisely 21 doubles last year. That's not an estimate and there's no margin of error in that stat.

[metsmarathon]

=Cowtipper post_id=155298 time=1715706604 user_id=166]
Also I called the collapse of deGrom long before anyone else did.

[metsmarathon]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=155313 time=1715710664 user_id=68]
Pete Alonso hit precisely 21 doubles last year. That's not an estimate and there's no margin of error in that stat.

[Edgy MD]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=155313 time=1715710664 user_id=68]But how accurate or reliable is WAR?

[Frayed Knot]

OK, I'm going to weigh in on this topic having read the early posts about whether or not Diaz was a much better Mariner than Met and if he is or is not

trending downward. Once the thread turned into having arguments about the arguments my hair started to hurt and I tuned out.





OK, so there is an outlier season for Diaz but it was more 2019, his first in Queens, than it was 2022.

This certainly isn't news to anyone here, we all saw it and it was bad (made worse by the fact that Familia was at least as bad). So while I'm

not trying to deny it happened, I am going to toss it aside for now and see how the comparisons look without it.



So the chart below shows Diaz for his 3 seasons as a Mariner; line 2 is Diaz as a Met minus that 2019 season and the 5.59 ERA; then Edwin's

entire NYM career (3 full seasons plus 2 partial ones) on line three.

			G		IP		ERA		WHIP		ERA+		H/9		BB/9		K/9		HR/9
	SEA		188		191		2.64		1.02		156		6.1		3.0		14.2		0.9
	NYM - 2019		166		167		2.37		0.99		169		5.7		3.3		15.2		0.6
	All NYM		232		225		3.20		1.09		126		6.5		3.3		15.2		0.9

What is clear from the above is that, aside from that one season, his NYM numbers are as good or better than his SEA numbers across the board.

And even with 2019 included, having the worst season in what was essentially the mid-point season of a career doesn't make anything a trend in

either direction. Also, hitting your nadir at age 25 and then bouncing back doesn't indicate anything resembling age related decline.



Now, is he a reduced pitcher on account of the year-long injury? Is the pitcher he's been so far in 2024 the one he's locked into going forward?

While both are possibilities, it's FAR too early to know that and I certainly wouldn't base an answer on the 16 innings he's pitched this year.

The disturbing part so far, which I mentioned during Monday's IGT, is the HRs. But, again, let's wait and see. 4 HRs in 16 innings is close to

the same pace as his 2019 15 in 58 but to call them the same now is to somehow know that this is a trend locked in place and life and sports

don't work that way.