Joon Swoon

[Frayed Knot]

Mets are currently a lovely 6-15 in the month of June as they prepare to close out the month with a four game series with a team that blew them out of

their building during a series in April

But what's worse is that this record comes with just a -10 run differential (99 RS/109 RA) meaning that, much more often than not, they've been playing

just bad enough to lose ... but of course you've been watching so you already know that.



More specifically they've lost by 1 run five times, 2 runs six times, 3 runs twice, plus one 4 run loss and one 7 run loss (14-7 v Pirates)

So in the one run losses they've obviously had the tying and/or go-ahead/winning runs at bat or on base but failed to score each time.

In the two run losses (6) the margin was twice due to late inning tie-breaking 2R HRs and have had tying/winning runners on in several others.

And one of the 3-run losses was a 10th inning 3R HR after sending it to extras by allowing two runs in the 8th and one more in the 9th

iow, there have been multiple late inning losses but only a single late inning win: the 10th inning walk-off vs the Yanx





Quickie summary here:



6/2: Jays 3 - Mets 0

T9: 2R HR off Brigham w/1 out



6/3: Jays 2 - Mets 1

T9 Tied entering 9th, 2 out RBI 2B off Robertson

B9: Tying run at 1st, winning at plate with 1 out: FO, K



6/4: Jays 6 - Mets 4

Tied entering 7th: 2R HR off Leone

B9: 1-2-3



6/6: Mets 4 - Braves 6

Up 4-1 until 4-run 6th

T9: 1-2-3



6/7: Mets 5 - Braves 7

Tied entering B8: 2 out/2R HR off Ottavino

T9: 1-2-3



6/8: Mets 10 - Braves 13 (10)

Up 10 - 7 after 7th: gave up 2 in 8th, 1 in 9th, 3 in 10th

T9: bases loaded/1-out: K, K

T10: ghost runner on 2nd no outs: LO, K, K



6/9: Mets 7 - Pirates 14

blowout loss, nothing to see here



6/10: Mets 5 - Pirates 1



6/11: Mets 1 - Pirates 2

T8: Mets had a runner on 1st with one out (GO, PO)

T9: a runner on 2nd w/one out (FO, FO)



6/13: Yanx 7 - Mets 6

B8: 1st & 2nd w/0 outs, then bases loaded w/1 out (K, K)

B9: 1-2-3



6/14: Yanx 3 - Mets 4

walk off win in the 10th



6/16: Cards 1 - Mets 6

(Wow! Two wins in a row!!!)



6/17 Cards 5 - Mets 3

Top 9: Cards get insurance run

Bottom 9: Leadoff batter on (HBP) so three ABs w/tying run at plate (K, K, K)



6/18: Cards 8 - Mets 7

Tied after 8, Ottavino gives up 1-out solo HR in top 9

Bottom 9: FO, 1B, GiDP



6/19: Mets 11 - Astros 1



6/20: Mets 2 - Astros 4

Mets get tying run to bat w/2 outs (K)



6/21: Mets 8 - Astros 10

Top 9: 1-2-3



6/23: Mets 1 - Phils 5



6/24: Mets 4 - Phils 2



6/25: Mets 6 - Phils 7

Bottom 8: the walk/error/HBP debacle

Top 9: leadoff batter on so 3 ABs w/tying run on, go-ahead run at bat (K, K, FO)

[batmagadanleadoff]

What all of that tells me is that the Mets have been very unlucky. Which is a narrative that makes sense to me. The roster is much better than the WL record, I'd say.

[ashie62]

You are your record



They have the talent to take these series from the Brewers and Giants and turn the page somewhat

[Edgy MD]

The roster is indeed better than the record. The issue is more philosophical.



Actually, that's an issue. Not necessarily the issue.

[Frayed Knot]

Y'know what's Not merely unlucky?

Since June 1st of 2022 (approx 190 games played) the Mets are 25.5 games worse than Atlanta.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=129891 time=1687786611 user_id=68]
What all of that tells me is that the Mets have been very unlucky. Which is a narrative that makes sense to me. The roster is much better than the WL record, I'd say.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=129891 time=1687786611 user_id=68] What all of that tells me is that the Mets have been very unlucky. Which is a narrative that makes sense to me. The roster is much better than the WL record, I'd say.

I'd say they've sucked at executing more than they've been unlucky. They just aren't playing well enough to win.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

So Zimmo got unlucky. I think a more apt example of What's Wrong With the Mets came in the 6th when we opened the inning home run, walk, single, sac bunt only to see Baty and Alvarez whiff out of more.

[Edgy MD]

That's certainly the situation I was thinking of.



If ever a situation called for some wet, steamy Danny Mendick action, that was it.

[Frayed Knot]

Well the upshot is that you can be both sucky and unlucky at the same time.



Mags' point is that a team playing three-plus weeks of baseball who get out-scored in the aggregate by essentially an 11-to-10 ratio is unlikely

to lose 72% of those games. Change the distribution and timing of some of those runs and it's still not going to be a good month but play those

same games out a bunch of times and it should trend towards something more like 9-12 or thereabouts.



On the flip side they shirley have been playing like shite and what they've mainly been doing is getting kil't in the late innings while doing almost Zero scoring of their own.

* they were tied or within one in the first two Jays games and tied in the 7th of the third: lost 'em all

* were ahead in all three Braves games then got out-scored a combined 15-1 from the 6th inning on: 0-3

* in the StL series they score 3 on the day they give up 5 then score 7 on the day they give up 8

Then the same thing happens vs Houston [2 / 4 then 8 / 10] right after winning a double-digit game

* they were leading or tied or within one run in the 8th or 9th inning ten times during this stretch and won once!!!



All that would be tough to pull off if you were trying to do so and almost impossible if you're not. And yet they did.

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Y'know what's Not merely unlucky? Since June 1st of 2022 (approx 190 games played) the Mets are 25.5 games worse than Atlanta.

This is fact

[Edgy MD]

In addition to sucky and unlucky, you can also be unwise.



I guess the catchier way to put it is that you can be schmucky, sucky, and unlucky.



You can also be Szapucki, but that ship has sailed.

[MFS62]

When the game gets tight, so do they.



Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Well the upshot is that you can be both sucky and unlucky at the same time. Mags' point is that a team playing three-plus weeks of baseball who get out-scored in the aggregate by essentially an 11-to-10 ratio is unlikely to lose 72% of those games.

Yes! That's my point! And that the Mets are displaying bad baseball doesn''t mean that they're not also very unlucky. Demonstrating bad baseball doesn't disprove that the Mets might be unlucky. Because ... you know ... you can be both bad and unlucky. Ideally, the luck would even out, except that it doesn't. And if the Mets truly are very unlucky this season, you'd think that average luck would've swung at least four or five losses in the Mets favor, and then the whole narrative would be entirely different.

[Frayed Knot]

The Mets Pythag projection for the season overall lists them as 'deserving to be' two games better than they currently are ... so I don't think "very unlucky" is quite accurate.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: The Mets Pythag projection for the season overall lists them as 'deserving to be' two games better than they currently are ... so I don't think "very unlucky" is quite accurate.

Yes, but Pythag is theoretical, and so it necessarily has a margin of error. So if Pythag says the Mets are under performing by two games, it might by three. Or five. Or eight.





But mainly, I'm not trying to dismiss the Mets flaws this season. Their record-breaking and now mocked historic payroll includes a large chunk allotted for superstar reliever Edwin Diaz, who's lost for this season. And they've gotten no starting pitching this year, which is bad in and of itself, but also puts a strain on the already compromised bullpen. The team has problems. But they might be very unlucky, just as well.

[Frayed Knot]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=129956 time=1687823504 user_id=68]
Yes, but Pythag is theoretical, and so it necessarily has a margin of error. So if Pythag says the Mets are under performing by two games, it might by three. Or five. Or eight.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=129956 time=1687823504 user_id=68] Yes, but Pythag is theoretical, and so it necessarily has a margin of error. So if Pythag says the Mets are under performing by two games, it might by three. Or five. Or eight.

Or fewer than two.

[Frayed Knot]

This stretch in June and all those close losses point to that. Not sure that the NYM season as a whole does.

[Edgy MD]

Tonight's game is looking pretty Joony so far.

[Frayed Knot]

So now it's 6-16 with a -11 run differential: 100/111 (RS/RA) as once again they score just enough to lose.



And not that last night's loss was unlucky in the slightest (they should have scored more than they did and we were lucky to even get one) but now 13 of the 16 are 1 or 2 run or extra inning losses.

[Lefty Specialist]

A bad bullpen is not luck. It's design, or the lack thereof. Yes, they lost Diaz, but they have never made a real effort to compensate for that loss, instead recycling AAAA fodder back and forth from Syracuse. And a bad bullpen is exacerbated by starters who can't get out of the 4th inning. Neither of these things are luck.

[Frayed Knot]

7-17 with just a -8 Run Differential for June.

[Edgy MD]

For what it's worth, every team moves bullpen backenders back and forth from their AAA team. The Mets would be doing that with Edwin Diaz available or without him.



They're 22nd in relief ERA, but then again, they are 25th in starter ERA, so what should have been done, I'm not sure. Drawing from one resource naturally tends to affect others, and 29 other teams are openly out to break your heart, so it's not that easy a call.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If angry, sarcastic-laden but well-written Mets recaps that also incorporate the words "fuck" and "horseshit" are your thing, (they're definitely mine) --- then Jason Fry's your man. http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2023/06/26/i-hate-this-team/http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2023/06/26/i-hate-this-team/

The streak continues. "Horseshit" is worked into Jason Fry's second straight Mets piece. And I'm loving it.



http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2023/06/28/theres-the-numbness-i-hadnt-been-missing/http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2023/06/28/theres-the-numbness-i-hadnt-been-missing/