It's 2021 and Jacob deGrom still deserves his own thread.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Scherzer?

[MFS62]

Dontrelle Willis.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Dontrelle Willis came to the plate 101 times in 2005.

[G-Fafif]

[batmagadanleadoff]

More fun with Jacob deGrom stats:



Divide deGrom's innings pitched in 2021 by the number of earned runs he's allowed this season (IP/ER) - which in deGrom's case is 58/4. This comes out to 14.5 -- so deGrom's on a current pace where he's allowing one earned run every 14.5 innings.



So if deGrom allows one earned run in one inning, he has to pitch 13 and a half scoreless innings to maintain his current ERA of 0.62.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets have 110 games remaining. If deGrom starts one fifth of them, he'd have 22 more starts ahead of him. But because there are going to be a lot of doubleheaders, that's not at all likely to happen. Maybe he'll have 18? In that case, he currently projects to 174 innings, 15-6 record, 24 walks and 279 strikeouts. Oh, and an 0.62 ERA.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The Mets have 110 games remaining. If deGrom starts one fifth of them, he'd have 22 more starts ahead of him. But because there are going to be a lot of doubleheaders, that's not at all likely to happen. Maybe he'll have 18? In that case, he currently projects to 174 innings, 15-6 record, 24 walks and 279 strikeouts. Oh, and an 0.62 ERA.

I know it's tough for a pitcher to win MVP. But if he had those numbers, and -- fingers crossed -- the Mets win the division, you can make a strong case for deGrom.

[Frayed Knot]

Next game might be interesting as he'll be facing the Padres a second time within a week. You figure that has to give at least a tiny edge to the hitters.

The problem at this point is that we're so spoiled that a merely Good outing will seem like a disappointment.

[batmagadanleadoff]

deGrom's allowing 3.9 hits per nine innings and striking out 14.4 batters per nine innings -- major league all-time records should those rates hold over the rest of the season. deGrom's ERA (0.62) is about half of Gibson's 1968 single season modern ERA record of 1.12.



deGrom's Adjusted ERA (ERA+) is 623. Here's some historical perspective and context for deGrom's 2021 ERA+:



deGrom (2021) - 623

Gooden (1985) - 229

Gibson (1968) - 258

Martinez (2000) - 291

Keefe (1880) - 293 -All-time single season ERA+ record.



The modern single season record for pitcher bWAR belongs to Dwight Gooden (1985) - 12.2. Dwight needed to pitch 276.2 innings in '85 to accumulate that 12.2 bWAR. deGrom won't come anywhere close to pitching 276.2 innings in 2021, but if he did, at his 2021 rate , he'd finish the season with a mind boggling bWAR of 15.2!



Jacob deGrom is breaking baseball in 2021. He's having the pitching equivalent season of a batter hitting 80HR's, driving in 200 runs and on-basing about .600. If deGrom were to maintain this pace over the rest of the season --- a huge if --- and was then denied the MVP award because his Mets didn't finish in first place -- or for any reason, really - well that would be the biggest travesty in the history of MVP voting.

[Edgy MD]

I tend to think that baseball is broken, and deGrom is just doing a better job of exploiting it than anybody else.A



But that may be just a matter of the perspective perch.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=67154 time=1623082866 user_id=68]
The modern single season record for pitcher bWAR belongs to Dwight Gooden (1985) - 12.2. Dwight needed to pitch 276.2 innings in '85 to accumulate that 12.2 bWAR. deGrom won't come anywhere close to pitching 276.2 innings in 2021, but if he did, at his 2021 rate , he'd finish the season with a mind boggling bWAR of 15.2!

[Edgy MD]

Despite the lost innings, he can add (and has added) to his WAR levels with his bat.

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: Despite the lost innings, he can add (and has added) to his WAR levels with his bat.

My greater concern is that (a) his contract has an opt-out after 2022, and ( his agent is presumably not an idiot.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, that's going to be the ongoing story of 2022. As long as there's not a prolonged labor stoppage, that is.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe the thing to do is hire whoever his current agent is to be the Mets GM. That seemed to work last time.

[MFS62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Maybe the thing to do is hire whoever his current agent is to be the Mets GM. That seemed to work last time.

[CROSSOUT]Devious fucker[/CROSSOUT] BRILLIANT!

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Despite the lost innings, he can add (and has added) to his WAR levels with his bat.

That's already built in to my post. I used the version of bWAR that also includes a pitcher's fielding and hitting.



And t's not just deGrom's microscopic ERA and run prevention that's putting his season on such a historic trajectory. deGrom's retiring batters at an all-time historic pace. Batters are rarely even getting on base against him this season. The all-time WHIP record is 0.737 held by Pedro Martinez in 2000.



deGrom's 2021 WHIP is 0.569.

[kcmets]

Edgy MD wrote: My greater concern is that (a) his contract has an opt-out after 2022, and ( his agent is presumably not an idiot.

I don't know if it's kontract kosher, but maybe in the offseason Uncle Steve can pull them

aside and offer a lump-sum check to get them to amend the contract to remove the opt-out

clause. He may not want to leave anyways, and a $20-30 million bonus might work. Maybe

it's a wild-ass-kontract thought but I suppose it's also silly to worry about such things while

his arm could fall off at anytime between now and then.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: My greater concern is that (a) his contract has an opt-out after 2022, and ( his agent is presumably not an idiot. I don't know if it's kontract kosher, but maybe in the offseason Uncle Steve can pull them aside and offer a lump-sum check to get them to amend the contract to remove the opt-out clause. He may not want to leave anyways, and a $20-30 million bonus might work. Maybe it's a wild-ass-kontract thought but I suppose it's also silly to worry about such things while his arm could fall off at anytime between now and then.

Contracts get re-negotiated all the time. Other pro leagues seem to do it more frequently because they have hard salary caps and will do it to be able to keep/ acquire players. But this seems like a good approach.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: My greater concern is that (a) his contract has an opt-out after 2022, and ( his agent is presumably not an idiot. I don't know if it's kontract kosher, but maybe in the offseason Uncle Steve can pull them aside and offer a lump-sum check to get them to amend the contract to remove the opt-out clause. He may not want to leave anyways, and a $20-30 million bonus might work. Maybe it's a wild-ass-kontract thought but I suppose it's also silly to worry about such things while his arm could fall off at anytime between now and then.

Steve Cohen is baseball's wealthiest owner. He buys $80M art sculptures. He could spend $30 or $40M like you could buy yourself a Big Mac and a coke. deGrom ain't going anywhere and this isn't even a speck of an issue. He aint' letting deGrom walk just like he wouldn''t have let Seaver get away if he owned the Mets in '77 and was as rich then as he is now.



Cohen's on another level. This is mostly ego and pride and monopoly money to him. He's not running the Mets on pure business principles where revenues and expenses are just about the only things that count. But knock yourselves out counting Cohen's beans with your figurative abacuses, one bean at a time.

[Edgy MD]

Art appreciates far more readily than player contracts.



I don't think the evidence is in to support Cohen's desire to spend more profligately than any owner in history. Among other things, he hasn't bought out deGrom's out yet.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Art appreciates far more readily than player contracts. I don't think the evidence is in to support Cohen's desire to spend more profligately than any owner in history. Among other things, he hasn't bought out deGrom's out yet.

He's only been here for one off-season.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think deGrom is more likely to stay than to go, but I don't see it as a sure thing.

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: Art appreciates far more readily than player contracts. I don't think the evidence is in to support Cohen's desire to spend more profligately than any owner in history. Among other things, he hasn't bought out deGrom's out yet. He's only been here for one off-season.

Indeed. I would offer the same statement. I mean, your declaration is far more conclusive than my own, right?

[kcmets]

But knock yourselves out counting Cohen's beans with your figurative abacuses, one bean at a time.

Can't we all ever just talk without this, "I'm smarter than you crap?" Just once?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Art appreciates far more readily than player contracts. I don't think the evidence is in to support Cohen's desire to spend more profligately than any owner in history. Among other things, he hasn't bought out deGrom's out yet. He's only been here for one off-season. Indeed. I would offer the same statement. I mean, your declaration is far more conclusive than my own, right?

Maybe. But Cohen's on a different level. There's no way the Mets are worth $2.6B -- not based on any categories that could be measured accurately. Cohen would've paid $2.8B for the Mets, if that's what would've been required to close the deal, I believe. Or $3B. Or $3.5B. This is monopoly money and ego - psychic value to Cohen. We live in a world where increasingly, the money supply is winding up in the hands of less and less people -- and the people at the top of that triangle have unfathomable wealth. There's only 30 baseball teams and it's not as if they're all up for sale every single year. Cohen's not valuing the Mets the way your accountant would value for you, the corner fruit and vegetables store that you're considering buying. I suppose Cohen has boundaries and limits on what he's willing to invest in the Mets, but I think that they're very flexible, and also, hardly calculated the way a conventional owner of a conventional business would calculate his budget.



Anyways, I guess we'll have to wait and see if some other team outspends the Mets to nab a deGrom that's still worth having in the near future

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

As he ages and, presumably, he starts to slow down a little, deGrom is worth more to the Mets than another team. Then again, Frank Cashen thought that about Seaver in 1984, too. (And deGrom is actually getting better as he gets older.)



Sandy and Cohen said they weren't going to spend like drunken sailors on free agents older than 30. But I would not be shocked by an over-payment to deGrom to recognize he was underpaid beforehand and to keep him a Met through the end of his career -- which I'd love!



The problem is each contract sets the standard for the next, hence Lindor's $341 million after Tatis' $340 million.

Edited June 7, 2021 by Guest

[MFS62]

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=67199 time=1623101648 user_id=119]
The problem is each contract sets the standard for the next, hence Lindor's $341 million after Tatis' $340 million.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I read this great anecdote about Steven Cohen recently. I don't remember where I read it but I'm certain that I read it in the last two or three months. It goes something like this (I'm probably improvising a little):



Cohen was in a bidding war with another potential buyer for a piece of property -- some expensive luxury home. And the other buyer was outgunned -- Cohen would just constantly raise his bid for the property. Finally, the other buyer ended up practically begging Cohen to back off. In the end the other buyer offered Cohen one million dollars to walk away from the property. One million dollars just to not bid on the property. And Cohen's response was: "What the hell am I gonna do with a million dollars?"

[Edgy MD]

=MFS62 post_id=67200 time=1623102210 user_id=60]
=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=67199 time=1623101648 user_id=119]
The problem is each contract sets the standard for the next, hence Lindor's $341 million after Tatis' $340 million.