Will a lost season hurt deGrom's HOF chances?

[batmagadanleadoff]

That's the question posed by an article in The Athletic, the gist being that deGrom's first six seasons are on a HOF trajectory but that he came up relatively late and so his career numbers are likely to be lesser than other HOF'ers and that therefore, deGrom cannot afford to lose a season from his precious prime when today, he is baseball's best pitcher.





https://theathletic.com/1728833/2020/04/08/how-will-a-delayed-season-affect-jacob-degroms-hall-of-fame-chances/https://theathletic.com/1728833/2020/04/08/how-will-a-delayed-season-affect-jacob-degroms-hall-of-fame-chances/

[Ceetar]

does he have pimples on his back? cause that's worse.

[Edgy MD]

My feeling is that age doesn't catch up with pitchers so much as mileage. That said, he did get a late start in the bigs, kind of putting him in the Ron Guidry predicament.

[kcmets]

B-br people or such will come up with some 20-20 offset mumbo jumbo.



I'm sorry, I meant an analytical solution to factor in the events, or non, to

facilitate proper career stat judgementing of potential HOFr's who didn't

(or limitly) played in 2020.

[batmagadanleadoff]

And then they can vote in Tony Congliaro, too, from projections based on a beaning-free career. That's what some voters will argue for (sarcastically) if deGrom's on the fence and projecting deGrom'a potentially lost 2020 season is a make or break issue re his HOF candidacy. I understand that projecting one lost season isn't the same as projecting an entire career. Or is it?

[Edgy MD]

Well, when doing career comparisons, projecting lost time that affected everybody from the era — such strikes and wars — especially including all that played both before and after the event, seems like a more valid effort than projecting lost careers from particular events that effected one person, such as an on-field injury.



There's at least some support out there to revisit the case for Pete Reiser, who basically had something less than half the career he should have, thanks to military service and injuries. I'm not a supporter, but I'm certain all for revisiting cases periodically.

[seawolf17]

I mean, I guess they've got to write about *something.*

[MFS62]

As long as he plays ten years, and continues to pitch at close to his current level, I don't think it will hurt him.

And we will have the new stats to thank.

Voters won't be looking at the traditional counting stats (e.g. wins, w-l, strikeouts, etc.) as much as they will be looking at things like ERA+, WHIP and K/IP.

I think this will be a non-issue.

Later

[G-Fafif]

In the Bob Murphy Learning Annex talk from 1990 (posted in another thread; still recommended heartily if you're any kind of Mets fan with any kind of memory or level of historical curiosity), Murph matter-of-factly referred to Doc Gooden, then in his seventh season, as a future Hall of Famer. He rattled off his career win total to date, noted he was just 25 and marveled. And it wasn't to make a case. There was simply no doubt that Gooden would follow Seaver, who was still awaiting eligibility, into the Hall.



They're different pitchers and different people performing in different times, but I'll wait a while to worry about Jacob deGrom's Hall of Fame path.

[ashie62]

I doubt it hurts or helps anyone.



Pitchers run on mileage, so not much effect

Compilers get dinged I guess

[smg58]

This is the exactly kind of thing you speculate on when there is really nothing better to do. So, naturally...



I don't think a half-season would hurt how people view him long-term. A completely lost season would affect a lot of players for multiple reasons, though. You could only speculate on whether he'd have been as special this season as he was in the last two. But he'll still be judged on the overall body of work, and what happens after this year will matter plenty one way or the other.