The 2019 Cy Young award thread

[batmagadanleadoff]

MLB will announce its 2019 Cy Young award winners in about a week and a half. Tomorrow, in reality show style, MLB will announce each league's top three finalists for the award. https://www.mlb.com/news/cy-young-prediction-tool-reveals-2019-front-runnershttps://www.mlb.com/news/cy-young-prediction-tool-reveals-2019-front-runners



Most writers have Jacob deGrom winning the 2019 award. So does Tom Tango's Cy Young predictor. https://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.pyhttps://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CyYoungTracker.py



deGrom, however, doesn't even crack the NL's top 10 pitchers according to ESPN's Cy Young Predictor http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyounghttp://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung The only possible explanation for deGrom's omission there is that the ESPN tool must be heavily weighted towards a pitcher's W-L record.



deGrom, who is poised to win the award for a second straight season has a combined 21-17 W-L record over the last two years.

[MFS62]

Proving one more time that the "experts" at ESPN aren't.

Later

[Edgy MD]

deGrom, however, doesn't even crack the NL's top 10 pitchers according to ESPN's Cy Young Predictor http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyounghttp://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung The only possible explanation for deGrom's omission there is that the ESPN tool must be heavily weighted towards a pitcher's W-L record.

Yeah, I think the predictor isn't based on who should win, but who has tended to win in the past, so the league leaders in wins and winning percentage get a lot of weight.



But the past is the past.

[Frayed Knot]

I've said this before, but I don't get the purpose behind pre-announcing the 'finalists' for these awards.

[Willets Point]

Frayed Knot wrote: I've said this before, but I don't get the purpose behind pre-announcing the 'finalists' for these awards.

Kind of goes back to what I was saying in the RnR HOF thread. Announcing that certain artists/bands have been deemed worthy of enshrinement makes sense to me. Announcing that a maximum of five from a long list of artists/bands will be deemed worthy does not. In both cases it's a clickbait approach to gin up virality that I just don't buy into.

[Frayed Knot]

At least when it comes to HoF nominations (baseball, R&R, whatever) there's always a need to announce, or at least clarify, who the first time eligible guys/groups are. But we already

know who the candidates for the 2019 CY award are: Pitchers who Pitched in 2019!! I just don't know why they feel the need to tell you in advance which of the (300?) possibilities Aren't

going to win. Hell, we can guess most of those on our own.



If I had to guess I think the reason for it is mostly that these awards announcements are now as much a TV show (MLBN) as anything (or at least MLBN is trying to sell them as such) and so this

gives an incentive to finalists to be contact ready in case their name is called. Those guys who are likely to finish 4th and 5th but maybe had an outside shot as a surprise winner? ... well they can

go get started on their off-season African safari without fear of missing out cuz no one from the network will be calling.

[Guest 41Forever]

Frayed Knot wrote: I've said this before, but I don't get the purpose behind pre-announcing the 'finalists' for these awards.

I totally get it. Announcing the winner is a one-day story, except maybe in the winner's market. Even then, it's over pretty quickly.



But if you announce finalists, you get additional days of coverage and discussion leading up to the announcement. And it's good news, showcasing the game's biggest stars. Everybody has fun talking baseball even after the season ends and before the hot stove stuff gets serious.



Any day I get to talk about whether Jacob deGrom is better than Max Scherzer is a good day.

[Frayed Knot]

=41Forever post_id=25991 time=1572922736 user_id=69]But if you announce finalists, you get additional days of coverage and discussion leading up to the announcement.

And it's good news, showcasing the game's biggest stars. Everybody has fun talking baseball even after the season ends and before the hot stove stuff gets serious.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: =41Forever post_id=25991 time=1572922736 user_id=69]But if you announce finalists, you get additional days of coverage and discussion leading up to the announcement. And it's good news, showcasing the game's biggest stars. Everybody has fun talking baseball even after the season ends and before the hot stove stuff gets serious.

There announcements prior to the 'Announcement' cause barely a ripple and it probably eliminates more chatter than it creates since you've eliminated even the possibility of anyone in the league

winning aside from those three guys. Arguing deGrom vs Scherzer can be done with or without this interim step. But if you want to argue the merits of deGrom vs Strasburg, or Hader, or Kershaw,

Soroka, Flaherty, or Castillo in Cincinnati? ... sorry, we've already pre-eliminated those discussions in order to create some 15 minutes of air time (that virtually no one will see) in early November.

[Ceetar]

CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship





had deGrom 5th last year.

[Frayed Knot]

I'd start by arguing that Strasburg had a better season than Scherzer (starting with six more starts and nearly 40 more innings pitched) so I'm not even sure they got the right three.

[Edgy MD]

But, lest it go unsaid, the Neyer/James formula wasn't created to fairly designate somebody as the very best, but to predict the winner based on voting patterns of yesteryear.



I think it's clear that since that book was published 15 years ago, voting patterns have changed meaningfully.

[Guest 41Forever]

Frayed Knot wrote: =41Forever post_id=25991 time=1572922736 user_id=69]But if you announce finalists, you get additional days of coverage and discussion leading up to the announcement. And it's good news, showcasing the game's biggest stars. Everybody has fun talking baseball even after the season ends and before the hot stove stuff gets serious.

There announcements prior to the 'Announcement' cause barely a ripple and it probably eliminates more chatter than it creates since you've eliminated even the possibility of anyone in the league

winning aside from those three guys. Arguing deGrom vs Scherzer can be done with or without this interim step. But if you want to argue the merits of deGrom vs Strasburg, or Hader, or Kershaw, Soroka, Flaherty, or Castillo in Cincinnati? ... sorry, we've already pre-eliminated those discussions in order to create some 15 minutes of air time (that virtually no one will see) in early November.