2019 Standings

[Edgy MD]

Nobody in the National League had a better day than the Mets yesterday. They walloped their opponents and the rest of the division lost. So did a lot of teams ahead of them in the Wild Card Chase. They could pass two more teams today.



Also, the Mets are right on their Pythagorean marker. While they play for a .500 record or more today, they are also playing to get even or tilt into the black with their RS/RA ratio.



Now that Pittsburgh is closed for the season, be like cooby and root like hell for Pittsburgh. They are the Mets' nu best friends.



(standings tables below)

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I hate the Mets new logo

[Edgy MD]

The second one is the correct one obviously. I caught that mistake and fixed it, but didn't eliminate the right chart.

[Edgy MD]

Fix't.

[Edgy MD]

Nope. Please stand by.

[Edgy MD]

This should do it.



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[Benjamin Grimm]

Wild Card odds of 21.1%. Who would have guessed it? What were the odds two weeks ago?

[Lefty Specialist]

How can the Mets have a 21.1% chance when San Francisco, a half game ahead of them, has a 4.9% chance?

[kcmets]

Lefty Specialist wrote: How can the Mets have a 21.1% chance when San Francisco, a half game ahead of them, has a 4.9% chance?

Non-mathematical factors like strength of schedule?

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Because it encapsulates all possible playoff scenarios and the Mets chances are bolstered by having a a more "winnable" division than SF does in the West

[batmagadanleadoff]

Those odds also take into account the strength or quality of the team itself. So those odds are probably also saying that the Mets are better than the Giants.

[Edgy MD]

I think there probably was an error in the work of your friendly over-complicating standings editor, and that was supposed to read 24.9%.

[Edgy MD]

Double checking and ... nope, that's correct.



I guess it's because San Francisco has a murder of a schedule coming up. Checking them out, they've got Nats, Phillies, Athletics, D-Backs, Cubs, Athletics, D-Backs. And then in September, they have six against the Dodgers, four against the Cards, and three each against the Braves and Red Sox.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Double checking and ... nope, that's correct. I guess it's because San Francisco has a murder of a schedule coming up. Checking them out, they've got Nats, Phillies, Athletics, D-Backs, Cubs, Athletics, D-Backs. And then in September, they have six against the Dodgers, four against the Cards, and three each against the Braves and Red Sox.

The Mets are supposed to have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the majors.

[Frayed Knot]

One of the factors is that the Mets to date have played 48 home games (28-20) against 63 on the road (27-36)*

That leaves (doing the higher math) nearly a two-to-one ratio of 33 home games remaining vs just 18 away.



Those road games are divided into three separate six-game trips: ATL & KC (Aug 13-18); PHI & WAS (Aug 30 - SEP 4); COL & CIN (Sep 16-22)











* no wonder Amed Rosario leads all of MLB in road hits

[Edgy MD]

With the win in Game One, the Mets head into the nightcap having tied two more teams — San Francisco and Arizona in the overall league standings.



At their nadir, shortly before the break, they were ahead of only Miami. Since then they've passed San Diego, Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati, and, as noted, caught the Giants and Diamondbacks.



They continue tonight's action with Milwaukee within reach a half a game ahead, and the Phillies and Nats two and a half ahead jockeying for the second Wild Card slot.

[Edgy MD]

A lot of late-game excitement, but The Brewers held on to beat the Pirates.



The Phillies are in Arizona and the Nats in San Francisco. So no matter how those games pan out, the Mets stand to gain at least two half-games more in the overall standings.

[Edgy MD]

I find that it's not every day that you gain a game and a half on first place.



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[Edgy MD]

With Atlanta winning, the Mets' likelihood for the division actually fell yesterday by more than half a percentage point. Such is the nature of the late hour.



But their likelihood of a Wild Card berth improved by more than three times that, so of course it was a good day, and with two of the clubs ahead of them in the Wild Card standings also division rivals, it gives them a solid chance to control their own destinies going forward.



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[Edgy MD]

Baseball Prospectus is not updating their odds consisttently, so we're going to switch to FanGraph's numbers, which tell us, at a cursory glance, that the Mets are awesome.



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[Edgy MD]

The only true enemy is the one in the other dugout, but if you have any rooting power left over today, root for the Rangers over the Brewers.



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[Edgy MD]

Personnel issues in the Standings Office needed to be sorted out. Until then, I've asked Maja to step in until she has the new staffers up to speed.



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[Frayed Knot]

You've got the NYM & PHI RS/RA numbers swapped (they're correct in the Wild Card set-up but not in the division standings)

It is the Phightins' who are actually at a run deficit and therefore the negative Pythag record.

The NYM record is right where it 'should be' given the RS & RA figures. That, plus the favorable H/R sked remaining (25/12)

is likely what most accounts for our high WC probability.

[Edgy MD]

I noticed that and thought I fixed it. I clearly did not.

[Edgy MD]

While yesterday's glorious win seemed to be mostly about keeping pace, as most of the Mets' rivals won as well, they DID manage the biggest improvement in Wild Card likelihood in the league, which, you know, isn't nothing. They even increased ever so slightly in their division winning likelihood.



And they did all that without Alonso driving in two runs.





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[Edgy MD]

Mets pull a half game ahead of the Phils in both the division race and le joker. Most other contending teams continue to win-win-win.



I don't know whose idea it was to disallow waiver trades in after July 31 to keep teams from tanking, but it's not working. Outside of the Reds, the entire bottom of the bracket seems to be rolling over and dying. THANKS FOR NOTHING, PITTSBURGH! I HOPE YOU HAD A NICE PISS!

[Edgy MD]

These numbers don't take into account this afternoon's games, among which, only Atlanta beating Pittsburgh was of consequence.



Yesterday's win was almost an existential one for the Mets, as it combined with losses by all their Wild Card rivals to boost their WC odds to 6.5%. Yesterday's real winner, however, was Chicago, who, despite their loss, benefited far more from the loss by Milwaukee.





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[Edgy MD]

Most of the league was out of action yesterday, with only 2 1/2 games in the whole circuit, and none of them involving NL East teams. But two of the games certainly were significant, with the Cubs taking another kneecapper from the Cardinals and the Brewers continuing their hot run, sharing the "Hottest Team in the League" designation with the Mets.



So while the afterglow of Wednesday night's win still shines on the Mets, the Brewers really found their heartbeat last night, gaining 14.4% in their Wild Card likelihood. And while about half of that gain came at the expense of the Cubs, a small bit came off the Mets numbers too.



While the Mets' playoff likelihood still dwarfs Philadelphia's, they remain tied in the loss column, which means they both have the same elimination number, each of which fell by one yesterday as the Brewers rocked on.



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