2019 Prospect Lists

[Frayed Knot]

It's that time of year again.

MLB, BP, and BA have weighed in with their league-wide Top-100 lists, although BA is hiding theirs behind a pay wall.





MLB.com

1 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B, Blue Jays -- International FA signing

2 - Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres -- Int'l FA

3 - Eloy Jiminez, OF, White Sox -- Int'l FA (Cubs)

4 - Victor Robles, OF, Nationals -- Int'l FA

5 - Royce Lewis, SS, Twins -- 1st Round/1st Pick 2017 draft out of HS

6 - Nick Senzel, 3B/2B/OF, Reds -- 1st/2nd 2016 draft, U-Tenn

7 - Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros -- 1st/17th 2016 draft, HS

8 - Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros -- 1st/5th, 2015 draft, HS

9 - Alex Kirilloff, OF, Twins -- 1st/15th, 2016 draft, HS

10 - Brendan Rodgers, IF, Rockies -- 1st/3rd, 2015 draft, HS

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51 - Peter Alonso

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58 - Andres Gimenez







Baseball Prospectus:

1 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays

2 - Jo Adell, OF, Angels -- 1st round/10th overall pick, 2017 draft, HS

3 - Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres

4 - Eloy Jiminez, OF, White Sox

5 - Victor Robles, OF, Nationals

6 - Keston Hiura, 2B, Brewers -- 1st/9th, 2017 draft, UC-Irvine

7 - Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

8 - Royce Lewis, SS, Twins

9 - Nick Senzel, 3B/2B/SS?/OF? (no, really, that's how they list him), Reds

10 - Wander Franco, SS Rays -- Int'l FA, born 3/1/01

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38 - Andres Gimenez, SS, Mets

--

40 - Peter Alonso, 1B, Mets

[Edgy MD]

And among recently dealt-off Met prospects



MLB.com

56. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners (Seattle #2)

91. Justin Dunn, RHP, Mariners (Seattle #3)



Also:Bobby Wahl (Milwaukee DNA)

Adam Hill (Milwaukee DNA)

Felix Valerio (Milwaukee DNA)

Scott Manea (Houston DNA)

Luis Santana (Houston #22)

Ross Adolph (Houston #30)



Baseball Prospectus

63. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners (Seattle #2)



Also:

Justin Dunn (Seattle #4)

Bobby Wahl (Milwaukee not yet published)

Adam Hill (Milwaukee not yet published)

Felix Valerio (Milwaukee not yet published)

Scott Manea (Houston not yet published)

Luis Santana (Houston not yet published)

Ross Adolph (Houston not yet published)

[Edgy MD]

Key Flaw over at ESPN says thats all bullshit. He not only puts four Mets prospects in his top 100 (though three are at the butt end), but his top Mets prospect is a shortstop and it's not Gimenez.



Mark Vientos: #60

Peter Alonso: #90

Andres Gimenez: #97

Ronny Mauricio: #99



He's only listed #51-100 so far, but unless he has a bigger surprise than Vientos (Peterson? Kay?), he's probably done with the Mets.



Justin Dunn was #58. Jarred Kellenic hasn't yet appeared, but is presumably in the top 50, so you better pitch like champ, Edwin Diaz.



I'd understood that Vientos was expected to gravitate toward third, so we'll see.

[smg58]

That's a super aggressive ranking for Vientos, who had a good year in rookie ball but nothing that would make you go "wow, how are the other prospect sites missing this guy?" I hope Law knows something the rest of us don't.

[Frayed Knot]

Normally what these guys are trying to do is balance what they see as players' ceilings against the likelihood of them actually reaching it. So by touting a just-turned 19 y/old who's yet to play full season ball Law is obviously leaning a lot more heavily on the potential side than on a meaningful track record or his closeness to the majors. iow, it's likely more accurate to say that Law 'suspects' or 'guesses' something about Vientos than to say he 'knows' anything.



Prospect touts remind me of R&R music critics sometimes in that they're often quick to jump off the bandwagons of guys everyone else is talking about -- 'oh man, you're still listening to that album ... I was so over that like two weeks ago' -- and instead try to move on to who they suspect might be the coming thing. Those who do that will be wrong a lot more often than right, but, when right, it gives them the claim to have picked up on the next great player/band earlier than anyone else. And I guess they have to try and stand out somehow.

[nymr83]

I think they (the "touts") lean towards lottery ticket guys the way that weathermen lean towards predicting rain. nobody complains when you predict rain and its dry. likewise, nobody remembers all those guys who spend a few years in reserve roles that you never listed as 'prospects', but when you miss the guy who turned into a start you get shit for it forever even as the other 'tout' who listed him had 10 guys around him who never cracked an MLB lineup.

[Edgy MD]

Kellenic lands at #38 for Keith Law.



Cano better be ASTOUNDINGLY good.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

The buzz on Vientos at draft time was that he was a Florida high-school kid with college leverage whom the Mets aggressively gambled a 3rd round pick on. The feeling on him from the start was long-term project, but with the raw skills to imagine as a power-hitting 3rd baseman.



Anyway it's good to see him so highly thought of already

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Kellenic lands at #38 for Keith Law. Cano better be ASTOUNDINGLY good.

Which is part of the reason the trade was a huge mistake. People say you never know with prospects, and it's true, you never do. But he's so highly regarded right now. A 19 year old who is #38 has tremendous value. He's the one prospect that I didn't want to trade, but if you are going to trade him, he's the one you use for a stud. For Nolan Arenado, or Cory Kluber. Not a relief pitcher. Even the best one. Brodie not only traded the wrong prospect, but he grossly underestimated the value of that prospect.



Edwin Diaz was balls out last season. 57 saves. WHIP under 0.8! His WAR was 3.2.



Star position players and ace starters range from 5 to 10 in WAR. You do not trade stud position player prospects for a closer. It's a foolish trade. And you certainly don't trade a stud position player, package him with your best starting pitching prospect and ship him off for a closer.



Do you know the position player equivalent of Edwin Diaz? Starlin Castro. Starlin Castro and his .729 OPS had a WAR of 3.3.

[Edgy MD]

I'm not of the mind that you never know with prospects. It's an over-simplistic philosophy.



I mean, OF COURSE you never know. But you never know with veterans either. Nothing is a lock. Their future performances all exist in terms of varying degrees of likelihoods. Canó, Kellenic, Alonso, me, you, and Ariana Grande. How often does a veteran's productivity nosedive as soon as he is the centerpiece of a big trade? Often enough, I'd say.



Actually, I take that back. The president's future performance is something close to a lock.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm not of the mind that you never know with prospects. It's an over-simplistic philosophy. I mean, OF COURSE you never know. But you never know with veterans either. Nothing is a lock. Their future performances all exist in terms of varying degrees of likelihoods. Canó, Kellenic, Alonso, me, you, and Ariana Grande. How often does a veteran's productivity nosedive as soon as he is the centerpiece of a big trade? Often enough, I'd say. Actually, I take that back. The president's future performance is something close to a lock.

You know what's a lock? Edwin Diaz (or any other closer) will never put up a WAR between 7 and 10.



Kelenic has a chance to do that someday. To a lesser extent, Dunn could too. And you know what? If you gave me Kelenic and Dunn, I bet I could have traded them for a guy with a WAR of 4 or over.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I didn't like that trade either, but you're leaving Canó out of the equation.

[Edgy MD]

And Bruce, Swarzak, and Bautista, I guess should be included too.

[Centerfield]

Swarzak and Bruce are basically dumped contracts, and the money issue complicates things. We asked for money back and to dump salary. Which is why we ended up losing Kelenic. Some pretend money doesn't matter. Money cost us the best prospect we've had in years.



In isolation, I think Cano could have been had for nothing. That contract is an albatross, and DiPoto had to move him this winter. As tough as it is to move a 36 year old with 5 years, left, it's nearly impossible to move a 37 year old with 4 years left. He knew that. We could have gotten him for Gerson Bautista. Or Eric Hanhold. Or Gavin Cecchini.



I think Diaz could have been had without giving up Kelenic. But if DiPoto insisted, then you walk away and sign Ottavino or Britton or Robertson to go along with Familia.