2019: Go for broke or break it down!

[Edgy MD]

Is Dallas Keuchel a top player?

Is Josh Donaldson?

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Is Dallas Keuchel a top player? Is Josh Donaldson?

It's off the top of my head. Isn't Keuchel still good? I thought he was a top of the rotation guy.

Forgot about Donaldson. But hasn't he fallen off?

[Guest 41Forever]

I was a free agent AND a top player.

[Centerfield]

41Forever wrote: I was a free agent AND a top player.

Centerfield wrote: In fact, other than getting Yoenis Cespedes three times, I can't remember the last player that falls into this category.

Mentioned him. Basically, I'm of the mindset that re-signing your own guy multiple times doesn't exactly qualify as improvement.

Look, if you win 98 games, there isn't much room to improve. But the Mets needed to improve to get to championship status, and that's tough to do without adding elite players.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I hope they have a GM in place by around November 1. For them to do that, they need to move pretty quickly.

[Centerfield]

I don't see it happening. And like I mentioned before, I think it will be used as an excuse for why we miss out on the top talent available this year.

Other excuses:

*We expect Cespedes back mid year

*Can't block Peter Alonso. Followed by leaving Peter Alonso in AAA.

*With Mejia and Montero returning, we feel like we had some depth...

*Todd Frazier. New launch angle.

*Lagares also returning. We already have too many outfielders (this one might be kinda true)

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I hope they have a GM in place by around November 1. For them to do that, they need to move pretty quickly.

GM meetings are..second week? or November. That's been there goal date, though those meetings are overblown, particularly in the media. But yeah, You'd like to not miss the opening of the free agency window I'd imagine. That can be anywhere from Nov 1st to Nov 5th. That can be tricky if the Mets want to talk to anyone with those two teams.

[smg58]

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Is Dallas Keuchel a top player? Is Josh Donaldson? It's off the top of my head. Isn't Keuchel still good? I thought he was a top of the rotation guy. Forgot about Donaldson. But hasn't he fallen off?

Donaldson has been hurt. Because he was traded to the Indians, he has a few extra weeks to showcase where he's at right now. Donaldson had a higher WAR than Machado in each of the previous five seasons to this one, but he's six years older. The physical might be more important with him than with most free agents, but unless you have Nolan Arrenado or just signed Machado, why wouldn't you take a look?

[smg58]

Vic Sage wrote: According to Spotrac, Mejia is a UFA this year. I don't think they'll be bringing him back. Flores is an Arb3, as is d'Arnaud, who will both be FAs after next year, so they'll probably non-tender d'Arnaud; maybe Wilmer, too.

I can't see d'Arnaud coming back at all. I could see Wilmer being brought back at $5M over two seasons, not $5M for one. (And with arthritis, I think he will be lucky to get that.)

[Edgy MD]

Keuchel is good-ish. But he's coming off a fallback year so it's an open question whether he still has it.

Signing Donaldson would be somewhat analogous to the Ventura signing. A pretty unquestionable bat playing on questionable legs at third base.

[Ceetar]

They've got a year on Mejia.

Grandal is almost definitely a huge get, and should be on the list. If they don't get him though, rolling with d'Arnaud/Plawecki isn't the worst thing if you've upgraded the offense elsewhere. Plawecki is pretty league average with maybe a hope for some late development because he's a catcher. d'Arnaud can kinda hit, sometimes? if he's healthy. I dunno. Nido was overmatched this year, but could he hold his own a little more next year after some more minor league reps? (thinking post d'Arnaud injury)
Flores will probably be back, he's a useful utility piece. It doesn't seem like the Arthritis is something to worry about.

I guess budgetarly giving all that money to d'Arnaud and Flores might be unwise when you can probably replicate that for peanuts if you make the right evaluations of some of the other FA guys.

[Gwreck]

Centerfield wrote: I don't see it happening. And like I mentioned before, I think it will be used as an excuse for why we miss out on the top talent available this year. Other excuses: *We expect Cespedes back mid year *Can't block Peter Alonso. Followed by leaving Peter Alonso in AAA. *With Mejia and Montero returning, we feel like we had some depth... *Todd Frazier. New launch angle. *Lagares also returning. We already have too many outfielders (this one might be kinda true)

Amen.

Go get the best available talent. Then worry about if you have 4 outfielders for 3 spots. Trades are also possible when one has a surplus of talent. Plus, you know, injuries tend to happen on this team.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Go get the best available talent. Then worry about if you have 4 outfielders for 3 spots. Trades are also possible when one has a surplus of talent. Plus, you know, injuries tend to happen on this team.

Sure but then you run the risk of having to trade away value and suddenly you're not as much improved as you though. or playing talent out of position and losing value defensively. Not that you lose MORE defensive value playing Bruce at first instead of RF. (which is inevitable for three weeks)

Still though, Harper is a lefty in an already lefty-heavy team and outfield. He's a talent you'd love to have but it really just isn't a good fit. Unless you get blown away in an offer for Nimmo and Conforto, you really can't/shouldn't trade those guys. You almost HAVE to get a Machado type to make the infield all righty if you go all lefty in the outfield.

[smg58]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Second half offense was 'fine'. We don't really have as far to go as it might seem. The plummet in June was extreme, and is making everything else seem kinda worse. Even just one great hitter, like Machado, and some talented platoon type bench guys would make a world of difference. The pitching is/can be pretty great. Even a lot of the disasters of the middle of the year were bullpen blown ones. Hold down those early leads and things look a lot different. Also, not a few of those blowups were attached to the Mets going to the pen early when they didn't have to, to preserve recovering arms. He also used bullpen back-enders in high-leverage situations, when the featured guys hadn't been overused, but were being held to a strict innings pace. (Gsellie smelted down the last month anyhow, but hey, first year as a big-league reliever and all.) Hopefully that won't be as necessary in 2019, and Callaway will be at least a little more aggressive with innings.

I think the handling of the rotation was exactly what it needed to be at the time, but there was too much quantity and not enough quality in the pen. Alderson got a bunch of relievers at the 2017 deadline, but none of them were ready to start the season in Queens and there was not a good reason to think that any of them would be (Rhame had decent AAA experience, but he turned out to be the worst one of the lot). The best bullpen pickup over the last year and a half as of now appears to be Zamora, who cost us Josh Smoker. There were good bargains out there to be had (The Giants got Tony Watson for 3 years and $9M, the Astros got Hector Rondon for two years and $8.5M), but Alderson seemed content over the offseason to trust what he had beyond bringing in Swarzak. I think Basholor, Drew Smith, and Bobby Wahl have a chance of stepping forward next year, but I wouldn't trust them with more than one spot.

[smg58]

Ceetar wrote: Grandal is almost definitely a huge get, and should be on the list. If they don't get him though, rolling with d'Arnaud/Plawecki isn't the worst thing if you've upgraded the offense elsewhere. Plawecki is pretty league average with maybe a hope for some late development because he's a catcher. d'Arnaud can kinda hit, sometimes? if he's healthy. I dunno. Nido was overmatched this year, but could he hold his own a little more next year after some more minor league reps? (thinking post d'Arnaud injury)

Don't forget Wilson Ramos, too.

[Ceetar]

yeah. Ramos is good too. Looks like he might've been a little lucky too. Love Grandal's BB%.

Kurt Suzuki and F. Cervelli look pretty nice too, from an older/cheaper/backup standpoint.

edit: Cervelli not a FA. misread it.

[Edgy MD]

Swarzie was probably coming off the best year of anybubby. Split over two teams, too.

Alas, he doesn't have a history of pitching two good, healthy years in a row.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Problem with bullpen spending is, you don't know which of these guys-- save a scant few with track records-- is a fluke, or due for an off-year. Unless you've already got your championship contender built, you build a team-- including a flexible, fungible bullpen comprised of your guys and/or buy-low additions-- in the offseason, and upgrade your bullpen in-season (see: Oakland, MFYs).

[Edgy MD]

Mets too.

[Centerfield]

Problem with bullpen spending is, you don't know which of these guys-- save a scant few with track records-- is a fluke, or due for an off-year. Unless you've already got your championship contender built, you build a team-- including a flexible, fungible bullpen comprised of your guys and/or buy-low additions-- in the offseason, and upgrade your bullpen in-season (see: Oakland, MFYs).

This is true. You can get a little better picture with analytics (rather than hey, this guy has a lot of saves and he's a "closer"), but definitely. Greg Holland on one side, Brandon Morrow on the other. Everyone was hot for Brian Shaw last winter and he was pretty doodoo.

[smg58]

Same with Addison Reed.