Ceetar

I was busy this weekend and didn't get to really watch any baseball. I'm just gonna pretend it all didn't happen and that tomorrow is where the Mets shake off this 'can't win at home' story line with a 6-game sweep.

Edgy MD wrote: I'm guessing that the whole PtBNL-will-arrive-after-the-draft is merely unconfirmed speculation, but I'm teeing this thread up now. I'm growing susceptible to the notion that the answer is sluggy shortstop Alen Hanson, who has been at AA for about 90 games now, searching for his lost shaker of ObP, but otherwise looks to be a well-rounded shortstop, if not a leadoff hitter. Is it one year after draft, or one year after contract is signed? we might have a few weeks yet.

sharpie wrote: Vinny Rotino, Luis Hernandez, Mike Hessman, Andy Green. I don't remember a thing about any of those guys. Vinny Rottino was one of those fun utility guys who could also catch. though he should've been the backup that year for flexibility's sake. Luis Hernandez is famous for Mike Puma declaring him the Opening Day 2B on like March 10th. Mike Hessman I tend to conflate with Val Pascucci. I have Andy Green's autograph on a baseball. He wore #10 (At least in Spring Training)

Watching the Miracle Of Life last night instead. Looking at the boxscore I'm unsure which is worse.

RealityChuck wrote: FYI, I'm at the game. Behind the Cubs dugout in the third section back in the shade. have a poppy seed bun for me. we've been batting one of our worst hitters leadoff almost daily all season, why change it now?

Edgy MD wrote: Ceets, remember when I said that a game characterized by walks and strikeouts and few balls in play made for a lesser appeal? Yeah. Last night was certainly not an appealing game, although I haven't really had the time to sit down and _just_ watch a Mets game in about a week. I know I sat down to watch "the rest of this half inning" in I think the third and it seemed to take 6 years to not score. Perspective plays in too though. If this was a battle for first place, don't you think we'd feel differently? They're under .500 so it feels like a battle of ineptitude, for any number of reasons. But if the walks and strikeouts and stranding runners were happening in a back and forth battle for first, wouldn't it feel more like a pitcher's duel than a game of offense hot potato? I just enjoy the mind games of the pitcher-batter matchup. The "should I swing?" struggles, the pitch that hits the corner. The just-missed meaty fastball that gets fouled off to make it 0-2 and puts a batter in a tough spot. The tailing slider that makes a hitter look foolish and walk back to the dugout. The balance of bouncing a curveball to make a hitter flail versus the chance it'll bounce away from the catcher allowing a runner to advance. The 10-pitch battle AB where a pitcher just can't quite get it past a batter and the batter's fighting off good pitches just waiting out the pitcher to either float one or walk him. I'm sure I'm not alone in this, particularly because of all the pitcher gifs I see posted of great pitches. The pitcher is doing the most interesting thing on the field on any given day. But of course, that's the ideal. Dice-K and Jackson are crazy slow (the time between pitches is more of a bore than walks/Ks) and often struggle to even throw strikes. It's not so much a pitcher-batter mental joust as it is batters waiting around for reasonable pitches to offer at.

you do that if you've given up. But in the meantime you very likely may lose games by trying to develop a prospect. Flores is still very very young. he had an .887 OPS in Vegas last year where league average was .756 and the average age was 26.9 (he was 21). But right now he's not doing that in the majors. He hasn't done that this year, and he hasn't done that factoring in the 101 PA from last year. Tejada is outhitting him, and he's doing it with some bad luck on balls in play (very low last year too), and a very high line drive percentage which probably means he's had some doubles taken away by hitting them at people. His SLG probably should be closer to his career average, which is not good. But he's 24th of 44 SS in wRC+ with at least 50 PA. Wilmer is is 31st. (Jeter is 26th) He's not doing great, but he's hardly at the "any other option" stage. And Flores gives you no defense or speed bonus either. Flores will likely get better, but that's no guarantee. He's not being buried, he's getting time, and that's fine. If/when he hits, he'll play more. Tejada, while never a prospect and never more than approaching league average at SS, is still only 26 and could potentially be worth something, even if it's just as a MI backup. If we get to August and the Mets are basically out of it and you want to find out if Flores can be your SS or 2B or whatever of the future, you play him every day even if his OPS is .596. When you're 3.5 games out of first in early May, you play that delicate balancing game of development versus best chance to win.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Astute assesment of the offensive troubles by Vic.I'll add to his call for Teagarden -- believe he has one of those promote-me-or-release-me clauses approaching as well. Not that I don't believe in dArnaud but he's gotta demonstrate he can hit. Brown for Young? We've got to be close to that 150-200 PA test I'd been willing to give him. Ceets! Ceets... Brown for a reliever is the word I've seen.

Vic Sage wrote: I'd like to see someone actually drive the ball at short. Flores has 2 XBH. He had quite a game two days ago. But that's it. Tejada is outslugging him in the last 7, last 14, and last 28 day samples. Flores could possibly be the better hitter going forward, but he needs to hit more than he has to actually deserve to play every day. you just won't give up will you? In what universe is Tejada even POTENTIALLY as good a power hitter as Flores? You lament the use of small sample sizes, and then talk about the last 7,14, and 28 days. Tejada has a career slg in the minors (over 2200 PAs) of .355, and in the majors (1500 PAs) of .316 (including his .286! so far this season). Flores has, over last 3 years in AA-AAA (over 800 PAs), around a .500 slg. but you want to talk about their last 7, 14, and 28 days? For a team so desperately in need of power, the choice is clear. It's not even close to clear. Like I said, Flores could easily become the better hitter. But he's not there right now. As of this moment, Tejada is the better hitter. It's made even more ridiculous by Tejada even out-slugging him. Will Flores get better? Well, maybe. But the recent samples, which are the only ones we actually have right now, suggest that even right now he's not there. You can't just hand him the every day job based on minor league projections. He's not being buried on the bench, and that's fine, but until he makes good on that pedigree, he doesn't get to play every day over a better hitter.

I believed Chris Young would hit for power, but I've probably seen enough of him too. The problem is he still might be the highest probability play to suddenly start hitting for power going forward over Campbell or Brown (or Nieuwenhuis or den Dekker) But Brown will be here soon as at least an option. Wright's slugging is .463 over the last month, so while it's not up to his career, it's getting better. Granderson was back to normal but he's slumping again now. yay. I thought in Spring that the offense might hinge on d'Arnaud being at least adequate, and so far that's been fairly accurate. The Mets aren't hitting for power and with d'Arnaud and whichever OFer is horribly slumping at the time (plus the damn pitcher) they've got enough holes in the lineup to trip up any non-HR rally. I just don't know that I trust Recker and Teagarden to be more useful on an everyday basis. I wouldn't quibble if that's the avenue they want to try, but I doubt they do since they easily could've let him rehab another couple of games in the minors with the same thought. I'd like to see someone actually drive the ball at short. Flores has 2 XBH. He had quite a game two days ago. But that's it. Tejada is outslugging him in the last 7, last 14, and last 28 day samples. Flores could possibly be the better hitter going forward, but he needs to hit more than he has to actually deserve to play every day.

Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I have no problem with the current dimensions - and the idea that changing them in some fashion or another will somehow benefit NYM bats while not simultaneously helping opposing bats and hurting NYM pitchers is, at best, akin to chasing your tail. That's never been the idea. The theory is that the dimensions fuck with our hitters more since they play 81 games here, while the opposition simply moves on after 3 games. By changing the dimensions, you unfuck our hitters. Sure, the opposition will get a benefit, too, but the idea is that revised dimensions will benefit our hitters more than they will benefit our competition. and will fuck with our pitchers' heads.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: And why would the Mets have gotten better offers for Ike, (assuming that's even true ... assuming the Mets were shopping Duda as actively as they were shopping Ike)? his pedigree? His slightly higher potential? his better defense? Who knows, I'm not Pittsburgh. Maybe he fit better with their philosophy. Maybe he looks good in yellow. But if they'd said "You know, I'd rather have Duda" they'd likely have Duda.

They should map out where all of the Mets deep fly balls are going to land next year against all of the deep flies by the opponents, and zig-zag the outfield walls appropriately.

There's no doubt in my mind that they traded Ike because Duda was more consistent and/or they simply got a better offer for Ike.

How about we extend the Pepsi Porch out another 5 feet or so.

MFS62 wrote: The CAPTAIN? (gasp) http://news.yahoo.com/jeters-mental-lapse-helps-mariners-beat-yankees-040607583--spt.html Later What the lame-duck SS who is spending the season being lauded and celebrated and talking about getting into ownership didn't have his head in the game? I'm shocked.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The Phillies are awful, but 4 of 5 at anyone's ballpark is impressive. The Phils may not recover from this last-placening we've smacked them with. Nah, I can see them recovering, in the sense that I can see the Marlins losing 25 of 35 somewhere here and slipping past them.

Vic Sage wrote: on edit: None of those AAA OFers have showed even at that level that they are ready to hit major league pitching. In his last 56 PA last season (which is pretty close to Abreu's sample this year) Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit .245/.339/.449. 21 PA this year .222/.286/.444 for a 105 OPS+. It's not enough to show he's ready to hit major league pitching consistently, but he also plays good defense and is faster. Or hell, play Campbell out there. You can still use Abreu in a pinch, he's not going anywhere. Maybe you can get something more out of these other guys given the the chances. As for Tejada, even a week ago he had a averagish OBP. At least he's not making outs. He's not really a drive guys in player, so you're not missing much batting him first. Plus while he's not fast, he's not really slow either so can do the first to third, score from second stuff without clogging the bases.

Edgy MD wrote: No, returning to the same fact when people try and point out a broader array. That's ONE fact. There's no reason to be sarcastic. Just because you think the stuff Abreu did in CBP in 2005, and before and after, is significantly relevant to today doesn't make it so. When you're 40 and the results over the last 3+ years are subpar. That's the most recent sample. 59 PA is basically nothing and is certainly not reason to think he's reverted to a player that he hasn't been in years and therefore deserves MORE AB and responsibility. People that know him better than we do even looked at him, closely, and decided he didn't really have any of value left. 59 PA doesn't make those people wrong. If Chris Young was even remotely hitting this would be a moot point, and if Juan is hurt again, well.. but personally I'd rather see if I could mine any value out of den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis or Puello before I played Abreu more. Even if their is more weight on Abreu's side of that equation, the upside of discovering something in one of the others is too great, in my opinion, to give more work to Abreu. And yes, if we're suddenly finding ourselves awash of OF playing time because of these injuries and such, it doesn't really matter. ride Bobby if he's hitting, but certainly don't bat him leadoff and give him more AB than everyone else. It annoys me that for righty/lefty ordering they bat him ahead of Duda.

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: 59 PA is not evidence, it's a small sample size and the recent past doesn't suggest it's going to stick. You're just going to keep doing that, aren't you? citing facts? yeah, sorry.

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Am I going to say the guy who wasn't even in baseball last year and sucked the year before that is going to maintain quality value based off 59 PA? Absolutely not. You're sticking to your antipathy of Abreu, and missing the evidence of your own eyes. I think the argument has been made and made again that there's a lot more to judge him by. Just look at him play. He's a fat old dude who brings very little on defense and could break down tomorrow, but until then, every plate appearance is a privilege to watch. And that's a cool drink of water in an offensive desert. 59 PA is not evidence, it's a small sample size and the recent past doesn't suggest it's going to stick. It's not an antipathy of Abreu so much as strong evidence that 40 year old bad outfielders who haven't played good baseball in years almost never come out of nowhere to be more than passingly useful. I certainly don't find every plate appearance a privilege to watch. I've got Wright and Lagares and Duda and Murphy and occasionally Granderson to watch if I want to see good AB.

Am I going to say the guy who wasn't even in baseball last year and sucked the year before that is going to maintain quality value based off 59 PA? Absolutely not. He hasn't slugged like this since he played in Yankee Stadium nearly 10 years ago. He's been helpful so far. surprising, but I wouldn't bank on it continuing and certainly wouldn't go out of my way to make sure he plays. The sooner the other teams realize he still has the bat speed to get one out and isn't just an over the hill guy just hanging on, the less he's going to get to hit. Sure, he still has the discipline to walk if they throw balls, but I'm just not going to make decisions based on 59 PA. I could list you 100 guys you've never heard of that have better numbers over that type of sample.

Well, the only non-pitchers with OBP higher than Tejada are Abreu (likely baBIP/luck driven and small sample size) Davis (he's not on the team anymore, also small sample) and Murphy. Murphy drives the ball more, so Tejada, then Murphy.

Zvon wrote: They have one more reliever left than we do. We have Black and Mejia. Can we get Black for two if needed? I dunno. This don't look good folks. But I still firmly believe we will win. oh please, i doubt they'll hit Recker either

I guess I'll go put the extra pizza in the fridge.