metsmarathon

i'm surprised it wasn't closer...

with apologies to SI... behold your chance to make a fool of yourself, by trying to predict the wierd wacky and wild goings ons of the upcoming hot stove season! to play, pick the one team you think each of the following players will end up on. and get your answers in before friday. and feel free to edit your responses up until the stroke of midnight that marks the close of thursday, and the rise of friday. the list of players comes from ESPN's top free agents, so complain to them about calling piazza a DH, if you feel you must. i've also added three additional players at the bottom of the list, to bring it up to a nice round 30. they may all be at the end of the road, but there's probably a team out there stupid enough to sign them. 1 A.J. Burnett - SP - 2 Kevin Millwood - SP - 3 Jarrod Washburn - SP - 4 Billy Wagner - RP - 5 B.J. Ryan - RP - 6 Trevor Hoffman - RP - 7 Bengie Molina - C - 8 Ramon Hernandez - C - 9 Brad Ausmus - C - 10 Paul Konerko - 1b - 11 J.T. Snow - 1b - 12 Kevin Millar - 1b - 13 Mark Grudzielanek - 2b - 14 Tony Graffanino - 2b - 15 Bill Mueller - 3b - 16 Jose Valentin - 3b - 17 Joe Randa - 3b - 18 Rafael Furcal - SS - 19 Nomar Garciaparra - SS - 20 Alex Gonzalez - SS - 21 Johnny Damon - OF - 22 Hideki Matsui - OF - 23 Brian Giles - OF - 24 Carl Everett - DH - 25 Ruben Sierra - DH - 26 Erubiel Durazo - DH - 27 Mike Piazza - DH - 28 Bernie Williams 29 Sammy Sosa 30 Raphael Palmiero

cameron, trax, and diaz i could live more comfortably with. cameron, heilman, and petit/milledge, not so much at all. granted, i like cameron, so i think i'd prolly lean the most towards an HBO position. until we can work them down to diaz and trax, with no cammy, that is.

hey! are we gonna have a free agent prediction contest this year, or am i thinking of a different site?

ron swoboda!!!! aw, hell. i cheated. i was ][ this close to guessing him, instead of the above...

that's just dumb. if my rep voted for that, i would make a point to not vote for him.

wasn't there a college hoops coach who was basically ousted from the NCAA for participating in a relatively low-stakes march madness bracket? in college, athletes are instructed thou shalt not gamble. that includes teensy tiny bets on the final four, football pools, and the like, and obviously goes onward and upward to include the dogs, horces, and underground illegal poker games that routinely get busted up by police stings. i don't imagine a good reason why major league baseball should be any less stringent. it would be an absurd news story if he were busted for playing rotisserie baseball with his buddies for a $300 pot. the fact that he is engaged in illegal highstakes gambling with characters, by definition, of shady origin only serves to make what could have been a nonstory into a big story. a BIG story. you could argue, what's the harm in letting a division three cross country runner at a small new jersey engineering college put down a five-spot picking his final four. but surely you can see the harm in gambling illegally, with shady characters, for large sums of money. the mere suggestion of impropriety is the reason behind the gambling prohibition in major league baseball, and other major professional sports. and what alex is alleged of doing goes far far beyond the mere suggestion of impropriety. its practically screaming "shenanigans!" and so ya know, i'm not an arod hater. nor, necessarily, a yankee hater.

i can always appreciate a little good old-fashioned anti-intellectualism!

if its anybody, its gonna be konerko... i think.

if tim mccarver were to go suddenly away forever and forever, there would be then one less announcer more interested in educating and analyzing for those fans who might need educating and analyzing for, and one more announcer more interested in getting his latest toy catch phrase on sportscenter as often and painfully as possible.

if pitching in winterball was bad, and tantamount to asking for injury, whysoever would teams allow their pitching prospects, who often make the majors with fairly tight pitch counts in their young years due to concerns of overstressing fragile arms, pitch in winterball? why would they do such a thing?

how much throwing do these guys do in the offseason, anyways? i'm guessing they throw more than a few innings' worth... if his participation in fall/winter baseball would not lead him to a greatly different offseason workload, then i've no problem with it. also, i've gotta say that at some pointyou need to trust your players, dotcha? if pedro really is begging out of games left and right, then don't you think that he'd also be begging out of these games too, forthe same reasons? i mean - he's a baby, right? he's not going to suddenly man up and play through, is he? if he feels his arm is healthy and can take the work, he's a big boy, and i've gotta take his word for it. in my own experience, also, my level of dissaticsfaction with management has never been inversely proportionate to my salary. in fact, i was less dissatisfied when working for taco bell and radio shack than i often find myself working for the man.

"tape reporter"?

awful http://www.emusic.com/album/10602/10602760.html even worse! http://www.emusic.com/album/10596/10596621.html

Proper Name: William Edward Wagner Born: July 25, 1971 Tannersville, VA Height: 5-11 Weight: 201 lbs. Age: 34 Proper Name: Robert Victor Ryan Born: December 28, 1975 Bossier City, LA Height: 6-6 Weight: 249 lbs. Age: 29 wagner is 4 1/2 years older than ryan. that's a big enough difference for me. if we're not to give the job to heilman, i'd prefer giving it to ryan over the other free agents

i have a secret... i actually found myself rooting for arod this series... i can't explain it. i mean, i guess i kinda feel for the guy basically being an mvp this season, and the only reason that yankee fans would argue the case for him is to argue against big papi. hell, i hope he does win he mvp, so that yankee fans can look extra bad for hating the guy.

surely there were good defensive plays, no? and if not, give the remaining 4 to the catcher - he must've called a good game.

and i was just gonna turn the game on to watch it...

yippee!

"y'all got another think coming" totally the wrong word for the phrase, but it still works in context. i like it. um, grammatics aside, i'd keep floyd. why, you ask, if he's just going to get hisself injured? because diaz makes an excellent 4th outfielder, and i'm not too sure that a floyd injury would necessarily unmake our team, and its not like he's all that expensive...

i'm fairly torn about the whole idea of carlos/manny.... while i like it, and the thought of manny and floyd in the same lineup gives me giggles, the voice in the back of my head tells me there's a downside that's big enough to not consider this a no brainer.

they really need to work harder on developing idiot-proof computers. that'll keep the yankee fans offa online votings.

i've got different numbers.... you're forgetting (i think) the run expectancy that results from a caught stealing. for instance: with no outs: no steal: 0.926 100% * 1.160 + 0% * 0.287 = 1.160 90% * 1.160 + 10% * 0.287 = 1.07 80% * 1.160 + 20% * 0.287 = 0.99 70% * 1.160 + 30% * 0.287 = 0.90 60% * 1.160 + 40% * 0.287 = 0.71 with one out: no steal: 0.550 100% * 0.710 + 0% * 0.114 = 0.710 90% * 0.710 + 10% * 0.114 = 0.650 80% * 0.710 + 20% * 0.114 = 0.591 70% * 0.710 + 30% * 0.114 = 0.531 60% * 0.710 + 40% * 0.114 = 0.472 with two outs: no steal: 0.246 100% * 0.336 + 0% * 0 = 0.336 90% * 0.336 + 10% * 0 = 0.302 80% * 0.336 + 20% * 0 = 0.269 70% * 0.336 + 30% * 0 = 0.235 60% * 0.336 + 40% * 0 = 0.202 so in each of these cases, it looks like you break even at about a 75% stolen base rate. below 75%, and you decrease your run expectancy (hurt your team/offense). above 75% and you improve your run expectancy (help your team/offense).

sample size(?). if i just look at this season, i could make the argument that stolen bases HURT offensive production, seeing as philly and st. louis scored the same # of runs, but philly had a higher OPS (on the back of a higher OBP - hteir SLG was nearly identical). in fact, walks and stolen bases aside, their offensive stats all looked eerily similar. yet we'v come to believe that OPS is the best correlator to runs. (and if not then OBP should be weighted heigher). so something MUST be dragging down philly's offense, no? gotta be the extra stolen bases! or maybe fewer GIDPs...? of course, then, what must boost the mets' offense? unless, of course, its random variation, and the overall correlation holds, but is masked by the random variation of a small sample size, and the contribution of other independent variables... (clutch/timely hitting? lineup construction? poor baserunning? conservative 3rd base coaching? who knows...) all other things being equal, the team that steals more bases and steals more efficiently, should score more runs than a team that does everything else the same, but steals less, and less efficiently.

well, if you want way outside the box.... six man rotation. the guy on his third day of rest is my closer for that day, and pitches my ninth inning if needed, instead of his regular bullpen throwing session.