Frayed Knot

* Lots of players -- major, minor, and in-between -- are moved every single July; this coming season should be no different. There are just too many variables to make blanket statements about the state of the market 8 months in advance. * My comment about doing a mid-season trade not being harder this coming summer was merely in response to the assertion that it will be because now "other teams have seen that trick". There was nothing unique or ground-breaking about the Cespedes deal that's going to change the way teams think in the future about deadline deals in general or about deals with the Mets in particular. Which isn't to say that coming up with a Cespedes-type at the deadline will be easy, or that it will work out as well next time (it almost surely will NOT), or that you should go into your season planning to do that.

Well it doesn't mean this needs to be their strategy for ever and ever, only that it seems to be right now.

bmfc1: The Mets will add Ryan Rayburn or someone like that, a righty reliever, and go to Spring Training as the favorites in the East. I think that they think that they can pull a rabbit out of a hat again at the trade deadline, if needed, but other teams have seen that trick so it will be tougher to pull off a second time. I fear that they are relying too much on anticipated success by d'Arnaud and Conforto and the health of Wright. Getting a better bat for the OF would help prevent such reliance. Boy Named Seo: I suspect they're trying to put the most competent team out without getting crippled by long contracts and I think they're succeeding in that regard. Gotta try and extend these pitchers long-term sometime soon. With Heyward or Upton on the books, it'd be harder for these Mets to do that. I also think they'll lean heavily on a trade or 2 again in July to fill whatever holes have opened up by then. Just how it is. I agree that their strategy is mostly a case of trying to ‘plug the holes’, of improving the overall offense by reducing the downside rather than trying for the home run move to upgrade the top end with the huge commitment that goes along with it. Now of course whether you believe that to be a choice or a necessity is, as always, up for debate. As I said a handful of times during the first half of the 2015 season, the half-season-long ‘Noffense’ wasn’t only that we ran into a couple key injuries but that the contingency plans for those holes failed so miserably. Some maybe were predictable in that players got exposed when turned into full-timers (Campbell), or not yet ready for the big time (Herrera, Plawecki), while others should have been better (Mayberry, Nieuwenhuis) but simply weren’t. The bottom line was that, of the 23 non-pitchers to see time this past season, more than 18% of the entire year’s ABs (approx. 2 of every 11 ABs) went to the collective mob of Dilson Herrera, Nieuwenhuis, Ceciliani, Plawecki, Campbell, JM Jr, Recker, Muno, Monell, & EY Jr. (add in the pitchers and it’s 25% of all 2015 ABs). And that group of ten ranked 13th (Herrera) then 15th-23rd (of 23) in RC/G (IOW, not just less production but the worst rates of production - Lagares was 14th) while hitting a collective .191/.258/.299 over nearly 1,000 ABs and whiffing over 30% of the time. Not one of them hit over .211 individually (Dilson) and they combined for just 19 HRs So (Seo) the plan this year, it seems to me, is to reduce the holes in the ‘secondary’ and have a lot fewer ‘give-away’ at bats because the depth is better. Specifically, Recker’s ABs go to Plawecki who’ll ideally get maybe 1/4 of the catcher time instead of fully half of it. Wright’s missed time in 2016 (in addition to being hopefully smaller) will go to whichever of Tejada / Flores / Walker / Cabrerra is sitting that day rather than Campbell. Mayberry, Cuddyer, Ceciliani, and maybe even Nieuwenhuis’s slack will be picked up by increased Conforto time plus the combo of Lagares and his (anticipated) future running mate. There’ll certainly still be a black hole or two somewhere (there always is) but a number of last year’s full-timers or first backups are slated to be this coming season’s no-timers (Cuddyer, JMJ) or platoon players (Flores/Tejada, Plawecki, Lagares) who’ll then be the guys who move up to replace injuries. And if all that doesn’t create an offense that’s better than DFL* in the first half like last year then, yeah, they’re going to have to go out and pull a mid-season deal again - something maybe they couldn’t do if they committed to a big deal now. But I don’t get the part about that being tougher to pull off; mid-season trades have been going on since the game began and it’s not like other teams can do something to prevent it simply because we did one last year. No guarantee that the next one will work out as well as it did in 2015 but those deals are always a gamble. * dead fuckin’ last

Sounds like maybe Phillips wanted compensation -- probably in the form of an extension beyond the two years he has remaining on his deal -- for waiving his N-T rights. As far as the Nats go, for a team that's already lost Ian Desmond, Yunel Escobar, and Dan Uggla out of the infield -- plus the likes of Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmermann, Denard Span, Craig Stammen, Matt Thorton, and Nate McLouth elsewhere -- they've got a lot of replacing to do and have so far just been nibbling around the edges (Ollie Perez, Logan Schaefer).

Pitchers: deGROM — Best starter start to finish HARVEY — the occasional PR problem aside, not that far behind deG FAMILIA — I wanted to see him as closer even before Mejia went down … then went down again. Now about that HR to Alex Gordon … SYNDERGAARD — we may just have a monster on our hands with this one COLON — he and Niese were almost statistical twins, but Bart seemed to have fewer bad games NIESE — too many good games were marred by bad innings ROBLES — Seems to have ‘stuff’ that’s better than his results. But he’s young and was thrown into some high-leverage spots early on, I think he’ll get there. GILMARTIN — the Rule 5 pickup was good, was versatile, and even tossed in a start MATZ — only so high you can rise on just 6 starts + 3 more in the post-season CLIPPARD — had his bad moments, but came in to stabilize the back of the bullpen when it was absolutely critical to do so VERRETT, GOEDDEL — two afterthoughts who provided 70+ innings of sub-1.00 WHiP. Verrett gets the tie-breaker for his spots starts C. TORRES — 2nd most relief innings on the squad, but not nearly as effective as in 2014 REED — 17 mostly good innings down the stretch although just 15 IP total and many were after the division was already decided A. TORRES — had a few bright moments early, but far too few GEE — started bad, got worse, ended ugly PARNELL — certainly wasn’t his pre-injury self, and may never be

Hitters first: GRANDERSON — From his very own ‘Suxx’ thread to the best offensive player on the team: Led in ABs (by a lot!), Hits, XBH, OBA, and even stolen bases MURPHY — Slow April then his typically consistent Murphiness with a bit of extra power thrown in. Then went wild in October. CESPEDES — Met fans are going to have to fight off the notion that they’re not getting 5+ years of what he was in August, but that August was so absurdly good that it turned the team around. Best OPS and RC/27 on the team by far. DUDA — Absurdly streaky but I don’t know whether he gets points for his hot streaks or points off for his cold ones. d’ARNAUD — With a full season he may just have topped this list. Projected to 450 ABs this year translates to 51 XBHs including 23 HRs. Is that something I can interest you in for your catcher? FLORES — Still don’t think he’s a real SS, but he faked it decently and provided some punch even if still making too many outs. TEJADA — When handed the job he seems to fall off, then when written off he keeps forcing his way back. CONFORTO — 3rd on the team in ‘Isolated Power’ behind just Cespedes and (just barely) Duda. Needs ABs and more exposure to LHPs LAGARES — Bat stagnated which led to being platooned and/or replaced. His good -- though this year not great -- defense in CF noses him ahead of Cuddyer despite slightly worse all-around hitting stats. CUDDYER — Was merely OK at his best, then looked worse and worse as the season went along WRIGHT — Numbers weren’t bad in the small sample once he finally got on the field. PLAWECKI — Brought up earlier than they wanted to, showed some pop but needs more seasoning URIBE — The timing of his hits and the pop in them (15 of 28 for XBs) made them seem bigger than the quantity JOHNSON — Some nice role playing off the bench CAMPBELL — Injuries gave him a chance to play regularly and he gave it back. Even managed to almost lead the team in GiDPs despite half the number of ABs NIEUWENHUIS — A bit better after he was reacquired, but was so useless in the 1st half that the overall picture is still ugly. 114 points of his 688 OPS came on one day. No soup for any of the rest of the bunch.

Frayed Knot wrote: So not only is the Dodgers' trade for Aroldis Chapman on seemingly perpetual hold, but now so is their FA deal for Hisashi Iwakuma They had previously reached a 3 year deal for the former Seattle starter (and 2015 no-hitter author) but this one has hit a snag over medical questions found during the required physical rather than around any potential felony charges. And Iwakuma returns to the Mariners; one year deal with several options.

Certainly helps the Nats in the short run - although not as much as he would have even 2-3 years ago. Deal not yet official - although certainly seems to be done. Phillips still has to give his stamp of approval (5-10 rights) and there's no word on what is going back the other way. Phillips signed for two more seasons at pretty big bucks ($13 & $14). Will turn 35 in mid-season 2016

NYDN's Andy Martino posts a lengthy article about this past winter meeting in particular and about the general vibe of the tradition in general. Specifically here he deals with the temporarily in charge John Ricco, the Zobrist pursuit and the Walker/Cabrera aftermath. But he also goes back to dish on the Dickey dealings at the meetings three years back and on the whole pursuit/sharing of info and rumor that goes on at such things.

So not only is the Dodgers' trade for Aroldis Chapman on seemingly perpetual hold, but now so is their FA deal for Hisashi Iwakuma They had previously reached a 3 year deal for the former Seattle starter (and 2015 no-hitter author) but this one has hit a snag over medical questions found during the required physical rather than around any potential felony charges.

On the first day of Metsmas The Metsies sent to me: Some memories of Dillon Gee On the second day of Metsmas The Metsies sent to me: Two shortstop's broken ankles And some memories of Dillon Gee On the third day of Metsmas The Metsies sent to me: ______________________ Two shortstop's broken ankles And some memories of Dillon Gee

Weird alternate-year progressions for Raburn 2012 OPS = 480 over 222 PA 2013 OPS = 901 over 277 2014 OPS = 547 over 212 2015 OPS = 936 over 201 That's not just erratic, it's freakin' absurd!! Pearce, meanwhile, is in the opposite camp where he's coming off a bad season on the heels of a good one 2014 = 930 2015 = 711 Pearce is two years younger: 33 in April as opposed to Rayburn who turns 35 the same week.

There were 75 starts last season made by someone named NOT Harvey-deGrom-Syndergaard-Matz - the only four 'proven' starters on the roster prior to this signing. 33 of them were from Black Bart and 36 others from guys no longer in the org. A full season from Syndergaard & Matz will make up for approx 1/3 of that 75 and maybe a dozen more from Wheeler gets you up to around 1/2 - and that's assuming no injuries from any of them or from any of the others either. So if the remainder of the 'missing' starts weren't going to come from Bartolo they were going to have to come from someone, either imported or internally promoted. Which isn't to say he was the only option, but he's been a pretty good one for two seasons and even with him a team rarely gets by with just five starters (used 10 different ones last year). 2014 Starts to cover from other than the assumed current starting five Niese = 29 Gee = 7 Sean Gilmartin = 1 Logan Verrett = 4 Rafael Montero = 1 And for the accountants out there, this contract represents money saved on him as compared to each of the last two seasons. On the downside: I don't want to say that he's old but, during Colon's rookie year, the ML minimum salary for $3.75/hour plus tips.

ChiSox send 3 prospects to the Dodgers Dodgers send 3 prospects to Cincy Cincy sends Todd Frazier to the ChiSox

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Let's get this story right. Gay is fine with Jeets, he just doesn't want "too gay." Geez get it right, it's properly written as 'Not 2 Gay'

I think that Anson example is part of the problem/argument about Cobb: it's not that Ty should now be considered the most socially enlightened person ever to play the game, but that he wasn't particularly racist or anti-social for his era and yet is held up as the example as such probably 90+% of the time.

No better than an average flick to me. Look, I got sick of the whole 'Rocky' franchise many years ago. At this point I don't even remember when I bailed (after '3' maybe) and they're not movies I'll latch onto if I pass by them on the dial (and lord knows there are enough opportunities to do so). Did I get into the first one back when it first came out? ... Sure, but I was also 18 years old or whatever so was almost genetically programmed to like it. But each succeeding sequel was increasingly cheesy and dumbed-down to the point where they not only increasingly sucked but managed to take more and more shine off the original with each tacked-on roman numeral. Hell, I will (and have) watch the original RAMBO before I see ROCKY again. Having said all that, this one certainly had less of the corny crap that increasingly cluttered I thru V (plus whatever they tacked onto after that) and once you get past the flimsy backstory which shoe-horns this previously unknown offspring of Creed into existence it's certainly not a bad movie and Michael B. Jordan is quite good. But in the end it's still just another version of an underdog getting into shape for a fight where he's in over his head but wins the respect of all around who doubted him and the woman who believed in him, yadda, yadda. And Rocky gets to play Mickey - which is certainly a lot better than having Stallone go through a dozen or so suitcases worth of horse-steroids/HGH that he'd have to do in order for anyone to want to see him take his shirt off at his age.

Blevins is officially back on a one year deal. Now all he has to do is last more than a week this season and we'll be ahead of the game. "Thanks for the early Christmas present! I couldn't be happier to return to the Mets" - tweets the lefty

Puckett's the guy I always think of as benefitting from good timing in his HoF vote character-wise. Kirby was well-liked during and just after his career by fans, by teammates, and by media types. But he was a borderline HoF case (in my mind he falls short) and had the rather sordid details of his life which became public not long before his early death -- mainly poor treatment of women maybe mixed with drug/alcohol use (can't quite remember) -- surfaced prior to his HoF vote I think they would have been enough to turn the vote the other way. Pure speculation on my part obviously but in borderline cases having your personal rep go from one extreme to the other can certainly make a difference.

Anybody who's read A Terrible Beauty (a W.B. Yeats reference for a subtitle!), offseason book reports are encouraged. From my (soon to be released) end of year book summary: **** TY COBB: A Terrible Beauty � Charles Leerhsen (2015) Although the author claims he didn�t set out to write revisionist history, he pretty much does exactly that as many of the things modern day baseball fans �know� about Cobb get debunked. A demonized angel? � Hardly. But a dirty, spike-sharpening racist who was hated by the rest of baseball? � the facts, as he finds them, say otherwise. Al Stump, this author claims, was a no talent hack whose chief asset was that he could churn out pages faster than just about anyone to the delight of his publishers. So that even though Stump got to TWICE write a Cobb biography -- the first, a serialized account under Cobb's thumb of final refusal, and then a second time long after Cobb's death so he could "set the record straight" -- he didn't come close to getting right either time. It was Stump's second bio that served as the source material for the Tommy Lee Jones movie which, as Edgy mentions, went ahead and made up even more things about him above and beyond what Stump conjured up.

And just in case you were worried that supporting a continuing Rose ban might put you on the wrong side of the issue, Trump has come out in favor of Pete so you've got that going for you.

'Opt-Outs' are the new 'No-Trade' clause. Giants 2016 rotation = Cain, Bumgarner, Peavy, Cueto, Samardzija

Gee: May 30 2013 - May 10, 2014 29 Starts, 202 IP, 2.67 ERA; 1.11 WHiP Since: 21 Starts, 124.1 IP; 5.14; 1.46

Oh Pete certainly still has both supporters and detractors with entrenched opinions on either side. It never occurred to me how, or even if, those camps might be split along political lines and I'm not sure I'd care to dig into it in order to try and find out. My only point was that the non-baseball portion of the sports media in this country seems to treat the Rose question -- particularly the HoF part -- as if it's the most pressing issue facing baseball today. It's the one they most want to grill Manfred on when given a chance (sometimes to the exclusion of anything else). Those more within the game, on the other hand, have other topics to occupy their thoughts which push Pete's status further down the list of priorities.

I'm sure this will be a major focus on ESPN where they think there's little to discuss about baseball except for Pete's HoF banishment. But I think most baseball fans, other than Cincy boosters who still worship Rose, have moved on and care very little about his ongoing status.