Frayed Knot

I think the "bad defense" comments from the various scouts and touts are more just a way of saying that they don't think he has the tools to stay as an everyday SS at the big league level, a call that probably 75% or more amateur and/or minor league shortstops hear at some point. But it likely does NOT mean that he has to abandon SS now and it certainly doesn't mean he can't play the infield. So before we go about redesigning the defensive alignment around him, let him stay at the position for as long as possible and then transition if and when necessary. It's always easier to move from SS and, hell, if Rosario advances in 2017 the way he did this past year that he's going to force everyone in front of him to change anyway.

In fairness to those advocating for Heyward last winter (for the Mets or for any other team) it's nearly impossible to expect a 26 y/o to fall off the cliff like the way he did this year - OPS dropped off 166 points from 2015 and more than 150 points off his career norm - OPS+ fell from 117 to 70! I'm not sure there was another guy getting 500+ ABs in the majors this year with a 70 OPS+, and certainly not a corner outfielder. - RC/G was cut practically in half: from 5.9 to 3.4 - his power became almost non-existent as shown by his IsoP going from a career mark of .163 down to .093. Shit, Rey Ordonez had a .089 isolated power mark one season (2001)! The good news for the Cubs is that he just turned 27 and that this season looks like such an outlier compared to others that there's almost sure to be some kind of bounce back going forward. Plus he still brings the defense. The bad news is that if he doesn't find his way back then you're on the hook for major bucks straight through to the 2023 season! And to think, Hayward's agent made sure to front-load the deal and also put in opt-outs following the 2018 & 2019 seasons. Just in case he was, y'know, out-playing his contract.

Tues 8PM in Cleveland (Game Time Forecast = 49, mostly cloudy) Wed 8 PM ----- Fri 8 PM in Chicago Sat 8 PM Sun 8 PM ----- Tues 8 PM in Cleveland Wed 8 PM Top Ten Cubs of all time by WAR * CAP ANSON - 84 WAR (Cubs 1876 - 1897) * RON SANTO - 72 WAR (1960 - 1973) * RYNE SANDBERG - 67 WAR (1982 - 1994, 1996 - 1997) * ERNIE BANKS - 67 WAR (1953 - 1971) * BILLY WILLIAMS - 61 WAR (1959 - 1974) SAMMY SOSA - 58 WAR (1992 - 2004) * FERGUSON JENKINS - 55 WAR (1966 - 1973, 1982 - 1983) STAN HACK - 52 WAR (1932 - 1947) * GABBY HARTNETT - 52 WAR (1922 - 1940) RICK REUSCHEL - 49 WAR (1972 - 1981, 1983 - 1984) Top Ten Indians of all time by WAR * NAP LAJOIE - 79 WAR (1902 - 1914) * TRIS SPEAKER - 74 WAR (1916 - 1926) * BOB FELLER - 63 WAR (1936 - 1941, 1945 - 1956) * LOU BOUDREAU - 61 WAR (1938 - 1950) * STAN COVELESKI - 51 WAR (1916 - 1924) * BOB LEMON - 48 WAR (1946 - 1958) KENNY LOFTON - 48 WAR (1991 - 2001, 2007) JIM THOME - 47 WAR (1991 - 2002) * EARL AVERILL - 47 WAR (1929 - 1939) * JOE SEWELL - 45 WAR (1920 - 1930) * = Hall of Fame

Fman99 wrote: Heyward signing is still powerfully stupid money for what he's giving you. Yeah, you can't hit on every move you make -- they also got shit from the Yanx when they dealt away Starlin Castro last winter (Adam Warren pitched one start and 30 shitty relief innings for the Cubs then wound up back in the Bronx as part of the Chapman deal three months later) -- and Heyward is almost certain to be overpaid at best throughout this contract and maybe even a total bust where they have have to eat the money and cut him loose in a few years. But it's not like they were counting on him to carry the load by himself so at least there was the defense to fall back on. It all probably forced Zobrist into the OF more than was initially planned, but the fact that Baez improved so quickly at his age (his 39% K-rate prior to this season plummeted to 24% in 2016) essentially means Zobrist is no longer the incumbent 2B-man anyway. You know what else helps you win 103 games? ... having most of your guys stay on the field. They had 7 guys with 450 or more PAs, and their season opening five starters all had between 29 and 32 starts. Shit, just 10 starts all year went to someone other than their big five (as opposed to 36 for the Mets) and a couple of those were due to guys on short-term bereavement lists. 5th starter Jason Hammell went on the DL on the last day of the season right as a 5th starter is no longer needed. Of the main position players, only Fowler (28 games) and part-time OF Jorge Soler (51) missed a stretch longer than two weeks. Like I said, there's always a bit of luck involved.

October 22, 2011 — the Chicago Cubs announced the hiring of 37 y/o Theo Epstein to be president of baseball operations. Five days later they hired Jed Hoyer away from San Diego to be Theo’s GM. Winter 2011-2012 Dealt RHP Andrew Cashner, their 1st round (19th overall) pick in 2008, to San Diego for 1B Anthony Rizzo. Oddly, Theo had originally drafted Rizzo while with the Red Sox, then dealt him away to Jed Hoyer and the Padres before getting both Hoyer and Rizzo back again where he’s a likely top-3 MVP this season and the ‘old man’ of the infield at age 26. Cashner has since moved on to Miami 2012 Using maybe the best, and certainly the last, good half-season out of pitcher Ryan Dempster, they dealt him at the trading deadline to Texas for two prospects, the less heralded of the two being control specialist Kyle Hendricks then at Myrtle Beach in the high-A Carolina League. Dempster is now retired and working on the MLB Network Signed OF Jorge Soler out of Cuba to a FA contract Selected reliever Hector Rondon in the 'Rule 5' draft 1st round pick (6th overall) = Alberto Almora: part-time OF in his 2016 rookie season 2013 Drafting 2nd overall following their 101-loss season, the Cubs select 3B Kris Bryant out of Univ San Diego Year 1 = ROY, Year 2 = likely MVP and his WAR to date exceeds the combined WAR of the remainder of that year’s 1st round picks. Pitchers Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray went before and after him. Again taking advantage of a good 1st half of pitching, they dealt RHP Scott Feldman and C/1B Steve Clevenger to the Orioles for reliever Pedro Strop and starter Jake Arrieta Arrieta’s ERA w/Balt over 4 seasons = 5.46, ERA w/Cubs since the deal = 2.52 including one CY award. Strop has pitched to a 2.68 and sub-1.00 WHIP out of the bullpen. Clevenger is now in Seattle where he hit .221 in part-time work this year, Feldman has pitched for three teams since the deal. Also at the trading deadline, dealt RHP Matt Garza to Texas for current relievers Justin Grimm and Carl Edwards. Garza spent 1/2 season w/the Rangers before moving on to the Brewers 2014 Signed RHP Jason Hammel as a FA in the winter then flipped him along with fellow RHP Jeff Samardzija to Oakland for minor league SS (11th overall pick in the 2012 draft) Addison Russell (plus others). Russell was an All-Star this year at age 22. Samardzija is on his third team since the deal. Hammell then returned to the Cubs that winter. Promoted previous (pre-Theo) 1st round draft pick (9th overall - 2011) Javier Baez to play 2B - or maybe SS, 3B, 1B, LF … wherever Maddon puts him 1st round pick (4th overall) = Kyle Schwarber, 16 HRs in part-time use in 2015, injured in 2016 although could possibly be activated and DH in the WS 2015 Signed manager Joe Maddon to a five-year deal when a change in the front office in Tampa triggered an out-clause in Maddon’s deal. Signed LHP Jon Lester to a mega-bucks FA deal. And while it’s possible they’ll get bit by that one before it’s over (2020 plus option for ‘21) he’s the front-runner in this year’s CY award. Traded IF Luis Valbuena to Houston for CF Dexter Fowler, then re-signed Fowler on a one-year deal after he inexplicably shunned first the QO, and then a three-year offer by Baltimore. Signed C David Ross to a FA contract 2016 Sign RHP John Lackey (38 y/o Today!!) as a FA to a two-year deal. 29 starts, 11-8, 3.35 ERA Signed the 35 y/o Ben Zobrist to a four-year FA contract. This also might bite them eventually, but it worked just fine for this year. Signed OF Jason Heyward to a mega-bucks FA contract Dealt several top prospects to the Yanquis for RP Aroldis Chapman Promoted C/OF/1B (a pre-Theo int’l signing) Willson Contreras in June: 27 XBH in 250 ABs October 22, 2016 — five years TO THE DAY!!!! after hiring Theo — the Cubs advance to the World Series for the first time in 71 years. Everyone from football coaches to the old Soviet Union apparatchiks play up the idea of the vaunted ‘Five Year Plan’ like they’re either wise enough to concoct one on their own or privy to some secret formula that’s going to turn the team, the economy, the neighborhood around. And while there’s always a degree of luck involved in success stories like this such — like when the lesser prospect in a deal becomes the better player, and sometimes even an All-Star or even a CY — at large chunk of it in this case shows shrewd talent evaluation, while more can be attributed to player development (Arrieta likely didn’t magically improve on his own), or to sucking enough to get the high draft picks (though you still have to hit on them … certainly not a given), or to getting the budget for major FA moves which (except to some degree with Heyward) have at least worked out so far (Lester, Zobrist), that’s an awesome string of roster moves no matter how you slice it which has (so far) resulted in 200 regular season wins in two seasons along with one division title, two NLCS appearances, and one WS appearance (and maybe more!!) Players left from the 2011 Cubs = None! - and I believe only Baez & Contreras were in the organization

I think the Cleveland run ends here. Too many injuries, too many holes, and not enough depth* to hang with the Cubs or even stretch it them to the max. I voted Cubs in six and I'd quicker move that bet to five than I would on it going the full seven. * although there's talk of getting RHP Danny Salazar back (out since Sept 9) 25-16 over 2015-16

I sometimes don't know heading into a 'neutral' World Series who I'm going to root for until several games in when I find myself pulling for one over the other. I suspect in this case that I'm going to be pulling for the Cubs (so I voted that way in the poll) although not so much that I don't want to see them at least have to sweat for it.

I didn't know that they were even allowed to play post-season games in 2:36 these days!! Just leaves more drinking time if you're a Cubs fan.

Wait, Mattingly wants to challenge that last play at 1st

Utley, who's getting PH'd for as I type, is 3-for-28 in the post-season this year ... one year too late.

Yeah, one out in the 8th but after just 2 hits and with less than 6 average innings worth of pitches. And it's not like Chapman has been lights-out recently. oe: although 2-pitch GiDPs shirley help

So will they still have to play the blues in Chicago when baseball season rolls around? I mean, they can't blow this one, can they?

Centerfield wrote: I fear he's gone. He re-signed last year at the tail end of January.

Again, there is ZERO incentive to cut or otherwise get rid of Reyes prior to next season (aside maybe for some odd scenario where the other team insists on Reyes being part of some package trade) nor is/was there any incentive for Reyes to insist on anything over the ML minimum for 2017; he's getting his same $20+ mil salary no matter what happens so why should he care how much of it the Mets pay? As for 2018 you evaluate that later on. Obviously you're not going to pick up the option but there are too many variables between now and then to make a call on it any time soon.

The Mets had a bunch of long games this past season and averaged over 3 hours on the whole, but only went above 4 hours a handful of times across the full 162 (five times to be precise) and all of them were extra inning games. Only twice this year did they top 3:45 in a 9 inning game. But the 27 (so far) playoff games have already topped 4 hours four different times (one was a 13-inning game) plus have come close to that in several others - and that's just a really bad trend if you want to keep fans of teams other than the ones playing from tuning out. The biggest culprits are easy to find, namely the increased commercial time (2:55 between innings vs 2:05 in most regular season games) and the increased number of pitching changes. But games like last night were just slow from the 1st inning on: slow pitchers, slow batters, lots of mound conferences, replay reviews, thinking about replay reviews, and mainly just a kind of malaise which has seeped into the game where it seems to take a minute or more to get from the end of one play to the first pitch of the next, like this is football where there's a designated 'dead time' period between each play. What they need to do is think more futbol rather than football which is how the game was originally intended to be, where the play is assumed to be live unless stated otherwise instead of the current way of thinking which treats it as the other way around.

They seem be doing that for unscheduled stops in the action such as pitching changes but not during the usual between innings breaks. Final time of this one was 4:16 Obviously the big Cubs 8th inning and all the pitching changes slowed things up but that game was slow from the beginning and was beyond the 3-hour mark when it was still a 3-1 game in the 7th. Lester worked slowly and Maeda even slower. And then came (LA's) Pedro Baez who's on his way to becoming the poster boy for how to get fans to turn the channel. As Smoltz said during Baez's time on the mound when Buck brought up the possibility of a pitching clock to enforce quicker play: "Oh it's coming"

Maybe I've lost count, but I think that was just the 17th replay review tonight.

Fuck the Dodgers!

Fman99 wrote: Play during prime time, for fuck's sake. That's when the NL game is on. Of course with tonight's game approaching three hours and just in the top of the 6th, it might still be going by mid-day tomorrow.

Andrew Miller actually only struck out one batter today - he had faced 33 batters this post-season prior to this game and had struck out 20 of them. So today he goes the opposite route and retires 8 batters (2-2/3 innings) on just 21 pitches.

Cleveland, apparently, rocks. And there's no way they could have done this without LeBron.

The Tigers were a good team that year -- won 95 during the season and went through the AL playoffs 7-1 -- but then played like shit in the WS. That they swept ALCS while the NLCS was going the full seven gave them a full week to kill before the WS, something that is often cited as the reason they looked stale and in particular why they made six errors in five WS games including five by their pitchers. The odd thing is that mgr Leyland said that with the down-week they spent a good chunk of that time doing what no team does once the early days of spring training are over ... they worked on pitcher fielding practice! The 83-win Cardinals were without a doubt the worst team in the playoffs that year from either league.

I also don't think that anyone is arguing that $17 mil is the 'Right' salary for him, merely the one you have to offer in order to snag a draft pick. And that even if he upsets the apple cart by accepting and then regresses to the point where that salary turns out to be twice as much as what he 'earns' in 2017, well hell then he's overpaid for one year but anyone can survive that. Either way, it's hard to see him falling-off enough to where he becomes backup material, at least not for another year or two yet, and his inconsistencies this past season weren't any worse than those of most other hitters. He had a rough month of June, no big deal. No worse certainly than Cespedes's September, most of Grandy's first half, or anything Conforto did starting the 1st of May.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I don't like to argue WAR because I'm suspicious of it generally and don;t really understand it, but if you do consider 2016 despite the career high in HRs was his "worst" WAR year offensively in his career. WAR is a cumulative stat so his "lowest" mark this year was entirely due to this season falling as much as 200 ABs short of his previous five seasons (458 this year vs 530 to 662), most of that obviously due to the late season injury. Now maybe you could argue that missing the ABs is a sign of aging but it's not one of his hitting falling off. A rate stat like Runs Created per/Game shows this to be his best season other than his first full one back in 2010. The oddity in his season was his dearth of doubles.

Yeah, Murph was the Nats' third choice after Zobrist rejected them and Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade. As mentioned already, there were three players (out of 20) who accepted QO's last year plus another who negotiated a two-year deal within the window so accepting isn't out of the question. There were also three others who wound up sweating it out even longer than Murphy, not signing until late February and then only one-year deals at rates sometimes half what the QO was and for the only teams that would have them with forced position changes mixed in. So while I suspect Walker will reject, I don't think it's a slam-dunk by any means.