The Mets and Pythagorus don't really match up well this year. A .500 record with a negative run differential usually implies a lot of close wins and larger losses. The large losses they have: seven of them by seven or more runs [8, 8, 10, 7, 11, 11, 11] -- that's a shitload of extraneous runs-against in just 26 defeats -- and by contrast those losses are offset by only two big wins: [10, 12] On the other side, a better than expected Pythag tends to imply you've grabbed more than your share of close wins, yet the Mets (like you haven't noticed) are now 7-11 in those so it's not like they've been on some kind of unsustainable roll of good luck just to get to the treading water level. Were they in the first two week of the year? ... of course they were, 11-1 type of streaks don't exist without a dose of luck. But I think the 'a run is a run is a run' system named after Mr. Pythagorus can get skewed in this still-small-ish sample of 52 games. It's still just an estimate, not a scientific law.