Frayed Knot

I remember that game, in part because I was so disgusted by their play that day (and leading up to it) that, even though I was dimly aware that a game-winning HR was theoretically possible, the notion was so remote that, when it happened, I was as stunned as I would have been had I previously been unaware of the rules of baseball and just at that moment discovered that such a thing was permitted to occur. There are 18 y/o gymnasts who can't go from grouchy and reclining on couch to standing on floor several feet away as quickly as my aging corpse did upon the crack of the bat, cuz as soon as he hit it ...

Nice to show that we can sweep the Braves when it really matters!

There are, as there usually are, a million ways to autopsy the season after you come up short. But I think this year it was pretty obvious that the main shortfall as compared to expectations lies in just one place: with the supposed stalwarts who were supposed to shut down the end of games. What I'm trying to do here is put on number on that failure. While we can trash the logic of Brodie's biggest off-season move last winter, and specifically wonder whether he was guilty of 'buying high' on Diaz coming off such a stellar year that he was unlikely to repeat, or even the wisdom of importing 'proven' closers vs hoping one will turn up through trial and error, it's clear that what he provided wasn't even within the realm of reason. That goes for Familia as well even if not quite to the same degree. Neither is at age age [ED = 25 just as the season began, JF = 30 in a few weeks] where you could reliably predict downfalls, and while Familia missed a few weeks with an injury, Diaz, as far as we know anyway, was healthy all season long. So if we don't want to just assume the two could repeat 2018, how about asking them for merely the average of the past three seasons? For Diaz that means the average of his ML career to date prior to this season. For Familia it's the previous 2-1/2 as a Met plus his partial season in Oakland. If we take those average rates and compare them to what we could reasonably have expected vs what we got instead what we get is: - instead of a combined total of 74 ER allowed, we'd get exactly half, 37 - instead of 116 hits in 118 innings we had a right to expect more like 89 - those 22 HRs allowed become 8 - 64 walks are cut down to 45, while K's remain virtually the same [162 to 157] So that's an extra 37 runs allowed on 27 extra hits and 19 more walks THIRTY SEVEN EXTRA RUNS!!! Now normally the 'Pythagorean Wins' projection figures that it takes about 10 extra runs allowed/not scored to turn a win into a loss. So by that method alone we're talking 4 lost wins accountable to those extra 37 runs allowed, a figure that would have put us at 90 wins rather than 86. But I'd argue that runs at the end of a game, where the addition/subtraction of one or two can flip games around, can't be judged on the same scale as just random runs scored/not-scored across a season. Not quite sure how those runs can be weighted (even closers give up meaningless runs at times) but shirley the gap between the norm from those two and what we actually got cost more than just four wins. I mean, take away 37 runs from a combined 132 appearances and 118 innings [66 G each, 58 & 60 IP] and that's gotta mean, what ... Six?, Eight?, Ten?!? At that point we're into the 90s in wins and maybe up to the mid-90s and who knows how different things could have been.

I think it's safe to say that this season has had its share of ups and downs.

Really, Walker?!?

Frayed Knot wrote: So this would only be appropriate if we blow the game in the 9th here, right? Yup!

So this would only be appropriate if we blow the game in the 9th here, right?

=kcmets post_id=23259 time=1569768667 user_id=53] Reminder: All 14 games today start between 3:05 and 3:15.

And his name's not even Joe!

54 is a nice baseball number as it translates into one HR for every three games on the sked. Or we can see if he, unlike Sammy Hagar, can drive 55.

A 1-2-3 inning for Diaz ... HE'S FIXED!!!!!

Ryu threw 7 shutout innings today so ... pfffft.

I think it's great that we're showing we can take it to the Braves when it really matters.

=G-Fafif post_id=23223 time=1569717892 user_id=55] Matz seems to be pitching a shutout.

My trepidation about Girardi is his reputation as being a bit too tightly wound and that that gets transferred to the players. Now granted that's more likely to be a long-term problem rather than an immediate one, but he and Maddon are probably polar opposites in that regard. But, in general, aside from the fact that each time he ranted at the umps he projected an air of entitlement that the Yanx deserved EVERY call so how dare one go against them, I rarely had a problem with his in-game managing.

Maddon is goofy and funny and often a great quote. But if youse guys think hiring him will be the end of banging your heads over bullpen moves, please review the films of the 2016 World Series.

I never quite got the 'Super-Joe Love' thing. Not that I disliked him or anything. But his supposed over-achieving was really only over-achieving when it was based on how folks imagined he would do based on his size and looks. He had, at best, two 'good' seasons in his career. The first was his rookie year as a Cardinal which turned out to be the lone full season of his career. He finished 5th in ROY but even that was good for just a 84 OPS+ while his defensive versatility, while nice, still kept him mostly out of the middle of the field. The second was his first year as a Met (maybe he simply made good first impressions?): it was his only above-average OPS+ (107) but it came with less than 300 ABs. And even his supposed Randy Johnson 'domination' was based on a very small sample size (like 10 ABs) which quickly reverted to where you'd think a bench player would hit vs Big Unit, even it few seemed to notice. That said, his playing career shouldn't be used for or against his managerial candidacy. His name has been mentioned before and I believe he did get some interviews during the last round of musical chairs so at least some people consider him worthy. I'm willing to go in that direction but not just for sentimental reasons, particularly because I don't understand the sentiment.

I think one thing that's become apparent over the last couple of years -- both with watching managerial hires and from listening to various talking heads opine about them -- is that the era of the Six Million Dollar Man(ager) is over and, no, not just with the Wilpons. Not sure where that leaves guys like Girardi & Maddon who are/were used to paychecks with more zeroes in them. Girardi, Joe was making about $4 at the end of his NYY deal, which itself was a come down from the previous Joe (Torre) who was more like $6. Maddon, Joe looks like he's the stereotyped 'Average Joe' among those two as he's listed at $5 plus post-season performance bonuses, a perk which he obviously won't be enjoying this year. By contrast, Mickey is at 850K. Across town, Boone is taking in $1.15 Both obviously are first-timers so you'd need to go higher than that to snag either Girardi or Maddon, but it's unclear how high anybody is willing to go in order to hire a guy whom you just want to take dictation from the front office anyway. Flying solo too often is apparently at least part of what's going to end Maddon's tenure in Chicago despite that whole WS/108-year thingie.

=Fman99 post_id=23177 time=1569666300 user_id=86]Total bush.

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: I pointed this out when we got him but his most similar was Hector Noesi, I think, who also has 1 outstanding season as a young reliever. He easily could have had his best days already. Not sure where Noesi is coming from since his best season contained a 4.50 ERA (96 ERA+) and never had anything as good as even that again. And Diaz didn't merely have a good season, he had two good years and one Great one [ERA+ = 146, 128, 208] all in his first three seasons and all by age 24 Look, he may very well never see the likes of 2018 again but there was no reason to suspect anything like what we've just seen. And I have no idea if Tracky is actually quoting someone in the front office when he advances the 'can't handle NYC' thing but I sure as fuck hope no one there is actually dumb enough to fall into that trap. That's 'pass-the-blame' loser talk. He's young, he's talented, and (as pointed out) not ALL of his indicators headed into the toilet even as the year as a whole could scarcely have been more of a disaster. Maybe it's the ball (affecting the slider), or it could be fucking sunspots for all I know. But I see no upside in trading him this winter and potentially a lot in sticking.

Lame and bush In fact, it wasn't merely bush league, one could say it was minor league. (I totally crack myself up sometimes)

But not that one!

Robo-Ump prevents that HR

You'd hate to see Lowrie go hitless for the season (such as it was). So far he's gone: K, K, 6-3, Walked, FO-7, K, K - that's 0-fer-6 w/a BB and 4 Ks while hitting One fair ball (which didn't get out of the infield). He was also part of an 8th game but his PH'ing spot got PH'd for (by Nimmo) before he ever got to the plate because the opponent switched pitchers after he was announced. Also Sam Haggerty, who has 2 ABs concluding in 2 Ks while appearing in 10 games although has at least played in the field (once, last night, for one inning ... and never touched the ball).

Tonight's 7 IP/0 ER performance lowered deGrom's season ERA to 2.426 [204 IP / 55 ER] putting him just a coupla ticks behind LAD's Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 2.407 [175-2/3 IP / 45 ER] Ryu is expected to make one more start in the regular season, I believe on Saturday at home vs the Giants. Now obviously if Ryu allows no runs then he wins the title regardless of how long he goes in the game. And if Ryu gives up three or more then he would have to pitch into extra innings (which he never does and obviously isn't going to do on the eve of the playoffs) to keep JdG from winning the title. It's the middle ground where it gets interesting - and possibly something that Dave Roberts might want to manipulate. If Ryu gives up exactly One ER in his final start then he'd have to be credited with at least eight outs (2-2/3 innings) to retain the title he now holds. 8 outs/1 ER = 2.422 ERA But if/when Ryu gives up a second earned run then his required out/inning total jumps to 19 outs / 6-1/3 IP in order to keep the lead. 19 outs/2 ER = 2.423 Ryu has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts. And, as usual for deGrom, if he loses this one it's going to all be the fault of his offense since the Mets were Ryu's opponent two starts ago, the first of those 7-inning outings, when he threw 7 shutout/2-hit innings. More recently (9/22) Colorado touched him up for 3 earned over 7 Where Roberts might want to get cute would be in pulling HJR as soon as he reaches those out/inning totals I listed (if I can figure them out I assume their analytics people can too) before some SFG bat "runs into one" and spoils it for him.