I said 12 games ago (quoting Gary) that the Mets likely needed to lose no more than four games (go 16-4) in order to push this season past next Sunday. Well, they lost four games since then (8-4) meaning we're in a pickle (just in case you didn't already know that). So they basically need to run the table -- win vs Cincy on Sunday, then 4-0 from Miami, then 3-0 vs Atlanta -- and end up 88-74 in order to TIE for a Wild Card slot If Two or More of the following also happen ... - the Nats (7-5 over their last 12) go no better than 3-6 over their remaining nine games: 1 @ Miami; 5 at home vs Phils (DH on Tuesday); 3 hosting Indians - the Brewers (10-2) go no better than 3-4: 1 more walkover against Pirates; (off Monday); 3 at Cincy; 3 at Colorado - the Cubs (5-7) go no better than 6-1: final game at Wrigley vs Cards; (off Monday); 3 at Pittsburgh; 3 at St Louis We can also technically tie with the Cards by winning out while they lose out, but that would automatically give the Cubs four wins and the DBacks three so that kinda makes it not worth considering. And obviously if we go a mere 7-1 this week then all of the above numbers get bumped up by one and so on, but losing even one game also brings both the Phils and Diamondbacks into the mix. We're currently even in the loss column with Philly so we already need their losses going forward to surpass ours in order to keep them from gumming up the works (making rooting for them to sweep five vs the Nats a bit tricky) and we're one loss ahead of the Snakes. The Phils have nine games remaining: The ESPN Sunday Night game at Cleveland, 5 at Washington, 3 hosting the Marlins DBacks (7): today in San Diego, then home for 3 vs Cards, 3 vs Padres So, uhh, yeah. The odds here would certainly have been a lot better had the Brewers fallen into a hole like they were supposed to following the Yelich injury instead of somehow catching fire. Not having the Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Reds, and Rox on their schedule coming down the stretch would have been a help as well.