If Italy wins then that's two losses for Mexico and it's Italy #1, US #2 If Mexico wins then it's three teams tied at a 4-1 record and it goes to tie-breakers. This is how mlb.com summarizes it: - The tied teams would be ranked, based on runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the three tied teams. - If that also results in a tie, the next tiebreaker is earned runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the three tied teams. - Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy, there is no scenario in which Mexico could win Wednesday’s game without advancing. - Assuming a nine-inning game, Team USA would advance if Italy gives up five runs or more and loses. But Italy would advance if it loses but gives up four or fewer runs. - An extra-inning game would, of course, alter the math.