Frayed Knot

=kcmets post_id=102553 time=1659748751 user_id=53] I was gonna check out, but I have a feeling the 2022 Mets are about to return and make this a ballgame.

Ruf boy, I want to bite and kiss you

Not that it would flip the results to date, but it doesn't help that we're leaving runs out there almost every inning. oe: as if on cue, they cash one in and end Anderson's night.

Over 1-1/2 hours to get through 3 innings. The game is ugly, but at least it's long.

=seawolf17 post_id=102537 time=1659745005 user_id=91] Why the hell are you sending Luis there? For fuck's sake.

Need rule: any pitching who visits the mound with an 8 run lead is suspended for the season.

Well at least the 2nd inning was only 4 runs and 8 batters coming to the plate. Much better than the 1st when 4 runs were scored and 8 batters came to the plate.

Even the visit from Nancy Pelosi earlier this week wasn't enough to inspire Walker tonight.

So this one isn't starting well.

The new look Padres, though still without baby Tatis, get their first big test with a three game set in L.A. They're 12.5 G behind the Dodgers so are unlikely to catch them no matter what happens, but it's probably important for their psyche and getting thumped will start to put their WC status in doubt - right now +2.5

Or an entire league: see NBA & China

Why not? He's getting on base nearly half the time (.474) and 4 of his 10 hits as a Met have gone for XBs.

The word may be made up (aren't all words made up?) but the concept is real. This new LIV golf tour is backed by Saudi money but the matches (only a handful so far) take place in various locations (none in the mid-east afaik) and doesn't represent the nation of S.A. in any overt way. The Putin Olympics (Socchi winter '16) -- like Hitler's '36 games -- the two recent ones in Beijing (summer '08, winter '22), and the upcoming World Cup in Qatar are better examples IMO. All of those made worse in that they were bestowed by international organizations only too willing to take the cash while ignoring the consequences. But if there are more corrupt and soulless orgs than the IOC and FIFA I don't want to know them. As far as the NYM hat, I'd be fine with the colors as a one-off community building idea if it didn't also incorporate the flag. You're trying to honor Chinese, presumably Chinese-American, culture, not the increasingly aggressive and threatening government of China.

In addition to the several threads here dealing with our predictions for this important five-game set (and beyond), there's also the matter of cold, hard probabilities. A five game series provides six possible results [the Mets can go 5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-4, or 0-5] but those results are made up of 32 [2^5] unique outcomes which will serve to make up those results. What I'm going to assume here is that each game of the series is a statistical coin flip [50/50], an assumption which I think is fair seeing as how the two teams are close in the standings and have virtually identical records since July 1st. One could argue that a slightly better season record plus home field should give the NYM a slight edge in each, but HFA is small in baseball (53-ish% per game?) and factoring it in makes the math so complicated that it begins to make my hair hurt. So I'm sticking with the idea that each of those individual outcomes have the same odds at each other. But of course more of those outcomes feed into split series results than they do clean sweeps or 4-1 near-sweeps so the chances on those final results aren't all the same. So, as our series began, the odds were like this: Mets go 5-0 = 3.1% Mets go 4-1 = 15.6% Mets go 3-2 = 31.2% Braves go 3-2 = 31.2% Braves go 4-1 = 15.6% Braves go 5-0 = 3.1% (odds add up to 99.8% due to rounding) And since there is no splitting of a five game series, the odds of either winning the series, in small degrees or large, is 50% to either side. But now that the first outcome has been PUT IN THE BOOKS the odds change and the remaining number of possible individual outcomes is reduced, cut in half in fact. Most obviously gone from the realm of possibility is a 5-0 ATL sweep while the odds on the remaining ones shift to reflect the ongoing reality. So as we stand now heading into Game 2: Mets go 5-0 [4-0 from here] = 6.3% Mets go 4-1 [3-1] = 25% Mets go 3-2 [2-2] = 37.5% Mets go 2-3 [1-3] = 25% Mets go 1-4 [0-4] = 6.3% As you can see, the Mets winning the series 3-2 is the most likely individual outcome, but their odds of winning big vastly trump those of the Braves doing the same and it all adds up to giving the Mets a better than 2-1 shot at gaining ground this weekend (68.8%) while dropping the Braves' odds to 31.3% (again, rounding). An Atlanta win tonight would further reduce the potential outcomes and throw the end results right back to even odds for each. And after looking at what a win is the opening game did to the odds of a positive NYM outcome, I don't think I need to stress what a second win tonight would do to those chances.

For the Angels it lasted 15 starts.

Various bits of tid from yester-day/night - Noah Syndergaaard went all the way for the W in his first game as a Philly ... sort of. The game was called after five by rain so his less-than-good 'complete game' line of 5 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BB, 3 K was good enough. Phils stay 10 back - Brewers lost for the third straight time to the Pirates (by 2, 1, and 1 run, twice by walk-off, the last one in 10 innings) That couldn't have been easy for Brews fans to swallow The Cards, meanwhile, took a day/night pair off the Cubbies so StL & MIL are now in a dead heat atop the NLC - The Angels hit 7 HRs in a home game vs Oakland ... and lost 8-7. That's right, seven solo HRs (on 9 hits) Shohei Ohtani, hitting but not pitching, hit two of them - As mentioned up the thread, JD Davis HR'd off Kershaw. Not mentioned was that Kershaw was later removed with a back issue. Those haven't gone well for him or the Dodgers over the years. Dodgers won 5-3 The 107 win Giants of last year are on pace for 78 wins this season. the 106 win LAD of '21 are on pace to win 111 If those paces hold up the Giants go from +1 over their rivals to -33. That's hard to do in one year.

Arcia was so knocked back by that pitch, I think at least four infielders (Pete, Diaz,McSquirrel, and maybe Lindor] could have made that play unassisted. Lucky getting that on a 3-0 pitch? Yeah, but a tough pitcher makes his own luck.

Rosario got on top of the high heat. Ozuna, not so much

Would have like to see them dive into the Braves' bullpen an inning or two earlier, but Matzek is in to start the 7th.

Edgy MD wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Not THAT dumb apparently. Cahna would have hit three homers. Clearly ... and caught that d'Arnaud liner.

Dang! Ottavino had 2-outs and an 0-2 count and was sitting on a potential 8-pitch 1-2-3 inning ... then he nibbled on Arcia and gave up a 3-2 single, followed by a WP and an RBI single to bring Acuna up as the tying run. ... but then whiffs him!!

Not THAT dumb apparently.

Two poorly timed (are there any other kind?) GIDPs have kept this game from really blowing up.

Back to back AND BELLY TO BELLY That should be BELLY to BELLY

Nice to see the non-HR club beating the homer happy squad at their own game. Also seeing crooked number innings after 2-out/none-on