A Boy Named Seo wrote: ... but there is a difference between "run expectancy" and "% chance to tie the game" - is it possible that run expectancy is higher with [runner on 1st, 0 outs] than it is with [runner on 2nd, 1 out] because the possibility of a big inning is so much higher, BUT the bunt has a higher probability of scoring one run? Yes there's a difference in 'Run Expectancy' vs odds of scoring, mainly that one is an average and the other a percentage. Run Expectancy factors in not just the times scoring once or twice but the chances of putting up a 10-spot are factored in as well. What we want here is the odds of scoring at least a single run or, it's corollary, the odds of NOT getting bagel-ed in that inning. The numbers I remember is that the strategy of NOT bunting is still going to be favored but not by as much. iow, the run expectation gap is bigger because more big innings are erased by ceding an out but the odds of scoring 'one and only one' are now closer to the point where how you play it is more likely to be affected by who's up in the inning. In this case I'm not asking Mookie Betts to intentionally make an out, especially not with his low GiDP odds and with Goldschmidt & Trout behind him so I'm backing DeRosa here. If it's 7-8-9 coming up with less speed and lower BA's then I might favor the bunt in this particular case.