Frayed Knot

"Don't forget Todd Hundley in left field" That one should have led off the list ... I hate it when I miss the gimme putts.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Not for nothing but this notion that the Mets are in desperate need of an ace starting pitcher are pretty overblown. Nuh-uh, the Mets HAVE to do something DRASTIC!!!! I know this because Chris Russo just told me so.

Mets In Weird Places: Well let's see ... - How 'bout Kevin Mitchell at SS? - Kaz Matsui at SS - HoJo in CF - Pete Harnisch on the opening day mound - Frank Tavaras hitting lead-off - Mike Piazza behind the plate - Dave Kingman with a glove on - Rich Becker on base - Mickey Lolich at a salad bar - Victor Zambrano OFF the disabled list - Doug Sisk with the bases empty - Mel Rojas in the 9th inning

Relievers complaining about a lack of defined roles is nothing new and is probably about as common as ... well as fans comlaining that the manager is too wedded to specific roles for his bullpen guys.

bmfc1 wrote: Jon Sciambi's good but I'm not familiar with the others. I think he was considered bck when McCarthy was hired. I don't remember whether he pulled out of was simply not chosen.

Fran Healy's departure from Met-land (which made it safe to watch TV with the sound on again) greatly curtailed my semi-forced volume of NYM radio listening so maybe I'm not the best guy to judge, but I never quite understood the venom directed at McCarthy. Yeah, he was kind of vanilla but I never found him annoying. So I guess I'm kind of indifferent to his leaving. Not particularly gonna miss him, but aren't going to be planning any parties either.

The grand-slam was a one in maybe one-thousand play. But once the ball went over the wall he had won ... until a one in a billion play turned it around. THAT is a bad beat. I personally LOVE hearing stories like this, particularly when they occur to gamblers who KNEW what was going to happen.

With no overwhelming 1st-timer on the ballot it's probably the best time for those recent near-misses (even though the one really shouldn't affect the other). As a result, I predict Gossage & Blyleven get in.

Valadius wrote: My view is, if it's going to happen anyway, why not let it happen sooner? Who says it "has to happen" at all?

I have a generally more favorable view (ie. see a better future for/would prefer not to trade) of Pelfrey but it's not like that's based on a whole lot other than a few perceived differences: - MP seemed to have more hype coming out of his amateur career despite his lower (9th vs 3rd) draft position - more faith in a hard, sinking fastball as a ML out-pitch than the notoriously fickle curveball - 1 yr younger and no surgery vs older and yes surgery

"I really think that there is a serious backlog problem that hasn't been addressed" It's addressed every year! "and I think that the best way to address it is to lower the percentage of votes needed for election to either 65% or 60%." How 'bout 40%? "As the article pointed out, the highest vote percentage a player who didn't eventually make it in ever got was Gil Hodges' 63.4%, and he deserves it." According to some, not to others. "I think it saves the voters, the players, and the fans a lot of time." Yes, saving time is the biggest concern.

Minor league guru John Sickels chimes in on the current state of the Met farm system: Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+ Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+ Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B (may raise to B+) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B (may raise to B+) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade B Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B- Brant Rustich, RHP, Grade B- Joe Smith, RHP, Grade B- Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+ Stephen Clyne, RHP, Grade C+ Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+ Brahiam Maldonado, OF, Grade C+ (deserves more respect) Nate Vinyard, LHP, Grade C (although I like him) Robert Parnell, RHP, Grade C Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C Hector Pellot, 2B, Grade C Dan Murphy, 3B, Grade C Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C -- There are 15 other Grade C prospects in the book who are interchangeable with these other guys. There are some toolsy players like Francisco Pena and Juan Lagares with dismal performance records that I cannot rate highly at this point, no matter how much the Mets talk about them. There is some nice pitching in this system but depth in position players is very weak. Overall the system is better than it looks at first, but lack of hitting depth is a problem, and I hate the way they rush some of their prospects A synopsis of his grading system: Grade A are the elite prospects. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars and almost all will develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role. Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all. He also tacks on an essay about Gomez, one which throws some cold water on those who got over-heated last summer and were mentally tossing aside Milledge thinking that his replacement/superior had already arrived.

NYDN's Adam Rubin tracks him down in Pt St Lucie Not going to be ready for winter ball but looking forward to spring training

The yearly talk about whatever potential BIG TRADE is thought to be on tap always drives me a bit nuts as most of the "info" out there is at least 9 parts baseless speculation for evey one part actual fact. But it's getting to the point where it's worth tracking whatever's happening on the Johan Santana front as things might actually be starting to heat up. * Various reports (from SI's Jon Heyman among others) have him turning down offers from the Twins for 5 yrs @ $93 mil and most recently 4/$80, leading to speculation that he's pricing himself out of Minnesota and towards being dealt this winter. * FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal suggests that it'll take around 7 yrs @ $140 (as a minimum!) to sign him - although it's not clear where that number comes from except maybe that it's a nice round number and an extrapolation from Zito's 7/126 from last year. * Santana already has complete no-trade protection and the always popular "source with knowledge of his thinking" says that Johan would almost certainly insist on signing a long-term deal with whatever trading partner comes up as a condition of approving a trade even though most players specifically DON'T want to lock themselves into just one club a year before being able to negotiate with all 30 for the first time in their careers. Of course it's also up to the Twins whether they want to agree to grant their trading partner such a window to negotiate a new deal after agreeing to a trade. Also the commish's office will need to approve. That add-on usually slows up potential deals but also means a better return to his team. * And then there's the matter of trading chips before you ever get to that point. "Rival executives" say that the Twins want at least one "big name major leaguer" - mentioning the likes of Reyes & Cano - and presumably several prospects as well. Happy hunting.

Ahh, the fickle market for relief pitchers ... you can't predict it and you can't depend on it. Rumor has it that right after acquiring Perez & Robo Hernandez from Pittsburgh Omar was trying to flip Oliver to SD for Linebrink (or maybe Linebrink + something). If true I'm glad it didn't work.

smg58 wrote: Hunter is younger than Vernon Wells but he's a better overall player, so this is where the market is. If we needed a CF, I'd have paid this much for him. ??? ... Wells is the younger player (by some 2-1/2 years) and, despite coming off a bad 2007, is the better player with the better upside IMO. Hunter to me has always been a somewhat more consistant version of Mike Cameron: similar fielders and sluggers with Hunter having a 20 pt edge in BA while Cameron has the same edge in OBA and is the better base-stealer. ]Matthews has a no-trade clause, I just found out. So either they know he'd agree to something, or they're fine with the rotation thing. Moving him to a corner while having the Vlad/Garret Anderson duo split the remaining slot/DH is certainly an option - not to mention that a defensive alignment of Mathews / Hunter / Vlad would be outrageous defensively (even tho I've always thought Vlad to be over-rated w/the glove) . It's just that many thought they over-paid Mathews to begin with and if he's no longer going to be a CFer for the remaing years of his deal then that's likely to become even more true. What all these deals (Wells, Mathews & Hunter) have done is to make the Beltran signing - particularly since it started at age 28 - look real good.

... for somewhere north of $80mil over 5 years ($16+/per) This (along with Glavine I suppose) is the first major FA team-switch of the winter. * He turns 33 at mid-season '08 * .324 career OBA And now what to do with Gary Mathews Jr.? That's a lot of cash to pay for two REAL GOOD CF gloves who are good, though hardly great, offensive players who now become somewhat less valuable if moved to a corner position.

I suspect that a baserunning stat probably takes into consideration things like pct of time going from 1st-to-3rd on singles or 2nd-to-home. If so it's possible that playing in Coors Field with its bigger OF and therefore deeper OFers makes taking extra bases easier for the likes of Holliday. As to what Wright did on the paths to drag his excellent SB% down to the point where his running was considered a virtual wash, well I'm stumped. I don't remember seeing blunders and/or extreme conservatism on his part.

From the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal: Estrada and teammate Tony Graffanino were involved in a dugout altercation with manager Ned Yost in early August - ironically, in a game against the Mets - but that was not believed to be a factor in the trade. "I don't really want to get into all of that," said [GM Doug] Melvin. "It doesn't do any good to talk about negatives." More from Melvin: "We're just looking for more of an energy level and a catcher who works well with pitchers." If Estrada's energy level was down, his agent, David Schwartz, said it probably was related to the injuries he played with. "I don't think Johnny got enough credit for playing hurt all season," said Schwartz. After the season, Estrada had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow and repair torn cartilage in his left knee. And from Estrada himself: "I heard they wished I worked better with the pitching staff," said Estrada, who will be playing for his fourth team in four years. "That (ticks) me off. I think sometimes, as a general manager or an owner, or even a manager, you don't have the pulse of the team. (General manager Doug Melvin) is not in the clubhouse."

Mex17 wrote: Either the Post is making crap up or Omar is out of his mind. Or maybe he doesn't particularly want Estrada (like because he's not very good) and the deal was simply a way to get out from under Mota's 2008 salary which IS guaranteed. Or, as they say in the beer commercial ... BRILLIANT!!! ]Estrada should be the starting catcher for this team!!!! This was a gift from Heaven. Well, if you think the "gift" part is that he was able to get rid of Mota then it's a gift whether Estrada is kept or not. If you think having Estrada as the starting catcher is the heaven-sent part then I think you have an over-inflated view of his worth.

That was the year the Braves offered potential FA Greg Maddux arbitration in order to get draft picks when he left only to see him fool them all by accepting the offer. That unexpected move wound up blowing apart the Braves' budget prompting them to trade Millwood for the then young backup catcher Estrada. Much chuckling ensued amid wondering if Schurholz had lost it until Estrada wound up having a better year than Millwood.

]what is the advantage in a catcher that draws walks? Because if he's drawing walks then he's not making outs - something Estrada did at a better than 70% clip last season.

="metsguyinmichigan"]Looks like a win for us, just getting Mota out of town makes it worth it! Reverse the names and that's what a quickie sampling of Brewer fans are saying about Estrada: "If Mets fans were disappointed with Lo Duca's defense, they're in for a heckuva surprise with Johnny" ... "garbage defensively" ... "clubhouse cancer" ... "didn't play like he cared" ... "whoever replaces him can't possibly be worse" ... "needs to lose 40 pounds" etc. ]So if they can get Estrada for Mota, then why can't they get a solid #1-#2 pitcher for Gomez-or-Milledge and Pelfrey-or-Humber-or-Mulvey On what planet does one have anything to do with the other?

In trying to compare how Estrada stacks up against Torrealba (since he's essentially the replacement choice) I'm pointing out that Estrada is a switch-hitter while Torreabla hit RH only.

"...this is from a site that will not be MentiOned FOr several reasons" Enough with this nonsense OK? 1) you're only copying something that someone there copied from elsewhere. It's not like that site was the source of the material in the first place. 2) there's no reason you can't mention a site. Stop inventing problems that don't exist. Back to Estrada - and a brief comparison to the guy who almost landed here: - 2 years older than Torreabla - 23 points better in BA than YT in 2007 (30 pts career) - 27 points Lower OBA last season. 12 BBs in 442 ABs!! - similar sluggers: .125 IsoP vs .121 - switch hitter vs RH only. Helps slightly in platoon situations - recently repaired knee vs questionable throwing shoulder - probably similar $$ costs for 2008, but one year vs three at which point it looks like he'll be a FA after that so this may well be a one year and out deal. - Cost of money only vs a sometimes promising if erratic reliever whose brief success may or may not have been due to steroids. He had that one pretty good year in Atlanta, a year he never quite duplicated after that (I've seen this movie before) although had a decent one with Arizona in 2006. In all it's probably an OK move, especially considering the limited options at the position. Maybe our Wisconson-based correspondant can check in with his new Brewer-fan friends and get some impressions about his defense or other general tendancies beyond what the numbers show.