Frayed Knot

The deal is at least being discussed: FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported the Cubs and Marlins were close to completing a trade which would send Zambrano to Miami. Rosenthal's sources said the Cubs would pay between $15-$16 million of the $18 million that Zambrano is owed next year. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman also reported the Marlins were close to acquiring Zambrano and that Chris Volstad could go to the Cubs in exchange. Between Zambrano and Volstad it's hard to tell which pitcher is more erratic (at least while on the mound) so it's tough to know who (if anyone) gets better here. Volstad was a 1st round pick (16th overall) 6 years ago but has only rarely harnassed his talent and his best ML season to date remains his first partial one as a 21 y/o back in 2008. Tell you what though - I'd pay to see a Zambrano/Ozzie argument even if I wouldn't understand a word of it.

The difference being that Gates Brown was a criminal pre-career while Cecil waited until afterward to start breaking bad.

metsguyinmichigan wrote: His Dad in his prime was fun to watch. We used to go to a lot of Tiger games in the early 1990s, at least one a homestand. (Having kids put a damper on that.) Cecil would hit some absolute moon shots on to the Tiger Stadium roof. But he kept getting bigger and bigger. There are stories of the then 11-12 y/o Prince hitting some long ones during Tiger Stadium BP as well.

The biggest thing Prince has going for him now is his age; not many hit the FA market this young so to take best advantage of that it seems to me that he's going to want the longest deal possible rather than try to do this dance again when he's in his early/mid 30s and those age/weight questions move from the back of everyone's mind to the front. Plus, short-term deals aren't exactly Boras's style - although he has shown a fondness for opt-out clauses part-way through, as long as such options are at the player's discretion of course. P.S. - the BB-Ref stats show Prince as that full 4 inches shorter than his daddy (didn't realize Cecil was that tall) but also 45 pounds heavier than the man who was once described as holding the major league record for having his back pockets further apart than any many who ever played the game. Now I suspect that 230 weight for papa F. was from early in his career while towards the end that real figure might have had a '3' as its first digit but who knows where Prince winds up when he's 35.

Yeah, I'm sick of thinking about this too, but the analysis of this deal never ends. - Hanley is now apparently agreeing to move to 3B (as if he had a choice). Still wouldn't be totally surprised to see him dealt; maybe not immediately but within the year. - The Reyes deal is heavily back-loaded 2012 - $10 mil 2013 - $10 mil 2014 - $16 mil 2015 - $22 mil 2016 - $22 mil 2017 - $22 mil 2018 - club option for $22 mil Given this schedule, the Marlins better hope that the new stadium attendance bump they're expecting is not only real but also lasting. The back-loading will also tend to water-down their (supposed) policy of not handing out no-trade clauses. If Jose does age or injure during the deal those out-year price tags will, in effect, give the deal a quasi no-trade drag since nobody is going to want him at those prices. - The draft picks the Mets gain for this deal are (at the moment) #s 34 & 64, although both of those will probably tick up a few notches as the remaining compensation-due FAs* sign. * Type A: Prince Fielder -- Ryan Madson Type B: Edwin Jackson -- Carlos Pena -- Raul Ibanez -- Derrek Lee -- Darren Oliver -- Dan Wheeler -- Francisco Cordero

Probably the most interesting FA story left is where Prince Fielder winds up. The sheer size and length of Albert's mega-deal seemed to set a pretty big market for the fat, tattooed one, but no one as yet seems interesting on opening the vault for a younger although heftier 1B/DH who had a similarly built father who never had a full season after age 32. - Seattle was rumored to be a landing spot but they've denied it totally and are so far away right now - particularly with their offense - he would be an odd fit there anyway. - The Cubs never got into things as Theo seems more intent on get rid of dead weight contracts in favor of prospects right now before taking on more - The Cards don't look to be interested in going home with the 2nd best girl at the dance after losing the 1st - and the 'usual suspects' (Yanx, Boston, Philly) are set at 1B/DH plus I've heard that the other NYC team is a little light on funds right now. But one possible landing spot involves the Washington Natinals. Sure they got one year left on the deal for Adam LaRoche (at $8mil) who spent much of 2011 on the DL) plus had a surprise breakout season from Michael Morse, but would you really let either one of those get in the way of Prince Fielder? Some rumor got floated a week or so back about them inking Prince then using Morse as a LF (where he'd be awful) or, better yet, dealing him for what they really need which is a leadoff/CFer, possibly for the rumored to be available BJ Upton from Tampa. That all was nothing more than local speculation - and was even pooh-poohed by Wash Post columnist Tom Boswell who is generally the only sports-writer in DC who's even aware that there is a baseball team in town much less follows the sport closely - but now comes a Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Report naming the Natinals as the front-runner for the Princely one ... "word is spreading in the industry that the Washington Nationals have emerged as a favorite to sign free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder." The Nats also have a recent history with dealing with Prince's agent Scott Boras (Werth, Strasberg & others) and it may be a clue that Boras most recent piece of bluster/hype involves Washington area icons, releasing a statement that "[Prince is] a combination of Henry Kissenger and Frank Howard. He's got brute strength power. He's a diplomat in the locker room" Not that any of the above proves anything but, if you're Washington, wouldn't you consider adding Prince to an existing IF of Zimmerman and youngsters Espinosa & Desmond, to go along with young catchers Ramos & Flores, plus a potential OF of Werth, Upton, and Cameron with possibly Bryce Harper at mid-season? And, yes, Davey is said to want Harper as soon as possible (as he did with Gooden way back when) especially seeing as he already has 1/2 season of AA under his belt despite not turning 20 y/o until Next October. And then there's a staff where guys like CM Wang & John Lannan are your 4th & 5th starters behind Strasberg, Zimmermann & newly acquired Gio Gonzalez. Not a bad pen either.

Ashie62 wrote: Maybe Beltran will find the fountain of Youth like Berkman. As opposed to the bad season Carlos had this year?

Apparently Oliver wants more The now 41 y/o Darren Oliver (y'know, the one who the Mets talked out of retirement seven years ago) has signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays. And in other LH-reliever news: George Sherrill goes to the Mariners.

I wouldn't put Olerud in, but then I wouldn't have put Rice in either.

If Miles Head makes it to the big leagues he can become a member of the all-time 'body parts' team, joining Barry Foote, Bill Hands, Rollie Fingers, and, of course, Bobby Cox.

I don't think anyone is claiming otherwise - and certainly anyone who thought they were being sold the notion that Wilmer Flores was some sort of guaranteed All-Star based on a teenage season or two at the lower rungs of the minors have only themselves to blame if they wind up disappointed.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Miles Head?? Better him than his brother Pot.

Red Sox seem to have replaced Jonathan Papelbon by acquiring 2009 RoY Andrew Bailey -- 27 y/o, 75 career saves; sub-1.00 WHiP; 2.07 ERA -- in a five-player deal with Oakland. To Boston: Bailey plus OF Ryan Sweeney To Oakland: 20 y/o 3B/1B Miles Head; 19 y/o RHP Raul Alcantara; and 24 y/o OF Josh Reddick Reddick has played with the big club. Head has reached high-A level; Alcantara just the short-season NY-Penn league - Oakland continues to stock up on young'uns - Looks like Boston was spooked enough by heir-apparent Daniel Bard's horrid September to not simply hand him the closer's job.

It's not so much that they think his use caused the injury and subsequent TJ surgery but rather the idea that his early call up and sudden conversion to a reliever stunted his overall development as a pitcher seems to be an article of faith among those who opine on this sort of thing. It's impossible to prove of course (one way or the other) but it's a more or less accepted 'fact' at this point. Sickels in particular has been critical of teams in general and the Mets in particular for what he sees as rushing prospects through the lower levels of the minors so this one is right up his alley.

It's also a factor of Latin players because they're signed so young which in turn makes the gap between their promise and actual payoff a lot longer and much more speculative. If Flores were an American HS player we would have only heard of him in the last year or so and if he went the college route he'd yet to be drafted.

John Sickels weighs in on NYM prospects: The Mets farm system has improved and I don't think it gets enough respect. There are some problems that have to be addressed, but they have some strengths as well. The organization is still suffering hangover from the way prospects were managed in the previous administration, but things are looking up. I like the pitching. Harvey, Wheeler, and Familia are three hard-throwing right-handers with the ability to be staff anchors. The first two aren't far off the A- category, and Familia is a fine prospect in his own right. It may be tempting to rush Harvey and Familia to the majors sometime in 2012, but I think both will be better-positioned to help in 2013. Mejia is something of a forgotten man but I liked him a lot before he got hurt, despite the ridiculous way he was handled in '10. Hitting is in tougher condition than the pitching. There are several very high upside players. There is some "shiny new toy" hope regarding Nimmo, but while his selection has been questioned by some, I like him. Products of the Latin American program like Puello, Flores, Valdespin (and Aderlin Rodriguez and Gilbert Gomez) have high upside but have yet to fulfill their potential, with strike zone issues being a persistent theme. Gomez had a nice run at St. Lucie but it was 75 at-bat sample and out of context with the rest of his career. I want to see more. 1) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B+: He can be a number two starter and someone to build around. Some evaluators see him more as a closer if his changeup remains erratic, but I'm cutting him some slack on that issue and am optimistic. 2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B+: This is actually more like Harvey 1-A and Wheeler 1-B. They are very close but Harvey is closer to being ready. Like Harvey, I see Wheeler as a future number two starter and staff anchor. He made big strides with his control last year. Like Harvey his changeup needs more work, but I'm optimistic about him given the improvements he's already made. 3) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B: Control still needs work, but took a major step forward towards harnessing his stuff. Could be a number three starter, perhaps more with additional changeup refinement. Could also end up as a fine closer. 4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-, One of my favorite players from the 2011 draft. Strong tools, skills are more refined than you think given his Wyoming background. There's some risk here but lots of upside too. 5) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade B-: Tough to grade and I'm not really comfortable with this guy. Tools are very impressive and he started tapping into his power. However his strike zone judgment slipped badly, with a dramatic reduction in his walk rate and increase in strikeouts. Power improvement was cancelled out by loss of OBP, and Double-A pitchers will easily exploit his over-aggressiveness. However, many scouts really like him and think he's going to break through, plus he was just 20 last year. Upside is very high but risk of failure is quite high as well. 6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade B-: Positives here are solid tools, high walk rate, moderate power (secondary average skills). Weaknesses include high strikeout rate and inability to hit left-handed pitching. I've seen him compared to Brett Jackson but Jackson is a better athlete and younger. Kirk looks like a very solid platoon player/fourth outfielder to me. Doesn't have Puello's ceiling but a much higher floor. I've gone back and forth about 10 times between Kirk and Cesar in the 5/6 spots. 7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B-: Waiting on Tommy John recovery at this point. I've liked him for awhile but he was handled badly by previous administration and it is still unclear if he's a starter or reliever going forward. 8) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. I like his power/patience combination and ability to handle second base, but his health care expenses have helped bankrupt the organization. If he manages to avoid injuries he can be a .260 hitter with 15 homers and a fine OBP. 9) Wilmer Flores, 3B-SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Still very young at age 20. Switch over to third base increases pressure on his bat. Will he develop sufficient power for that position? He keeps his strikeout rate low but power hasn't blossomed as Mets hoped, granted he was promoted aggressively. Stock is starting to sag but it isn't too late yet. 10) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-: North Carolina State product has sound combination of solid stuff and command. I don't think he got as much attention as he deserved in pitching-rich 2011 draft class and I expect good things from him. More here on players 11-40-ish, on the system as a whole, and also comments from readers/prospect-geeks

Yeah, we call that here "pulling an Ambler" -- named for an old poster here and at an older forum who was always the first to claim that _______ was going to strike out in whatever clutch situation was coming up. When said player would hit a game-winning double he'd be mysteriously silent ... until 3 or 4 days later when the same player actually would strike out at which point he'd chime in claiming that he wasn't wrong, merely ahead of his time.

Yeah, I can see it now; the trade doesn't happen but he backs out of shutting things down because, 'Hey, I wasn't wrong, that was an actual rumor'. Remember when the MOFO used to be full of questions like: Is this [rumored trade] just speculation or is it an actual rumor? And besides, how right or wrong can you be when all you're claiming is that David Wright MAY be the next Philly 3rd baseman?

According to Bell via his various complaints to anyone in the press who would listen, I believe that number is somewhere around 642

... both big and small with the Baseball Prospectus Transaction Database It defaults to the most recent transaction in MLB but can also be sorted by team, to a specific time period, or for just one player.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: No beat writer could resist taking the Wainwright angle this morning. Pathetic. Woke up in the middle of the night last night so I flicked on the radio to tide me over only to hear FAN's 3AM-ish update leading with that angle of the Beltran signing as if saying that it has become his 'Buckner' moment, one that will wash out everything else in his career both before and after that point. Hell, it isn't even his most notable post-season vs St Louis highlight! I think Cardinal fans just might remember his near single-handed destruction of them in the 2004 playoffs instead, a mere 10 hits including 4 HRs and 12 runs scored in 24 ABs

smg58 wrote: Milone is the key to this deal. Scouts don't like his velocity, but he's done nothing but produce in the minors and was decent in five starts for Washington. If he's a legit starter for Oakland this year, then they will have already recouped most of the loss. Otherwise, Norris has a K rate that's awful and getting worse; he's the kind of prospect I'd happily sell. Peacock and Cole have live arms, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Given Peacock & Cole's higher perceived ceilings and lower ages I'd think those two are more key for Oakland, especially so since this deal isn't about this year for them and, even if it were, Milone's 26 big league innings pitched aren't much more than Peacock's 12 so one is probably about as ready as the other. Also catchers with decent OBA + power don't come along every day; I'd live with the high Ks if I could get those. Of course any or all of those guys could still flat-line, but getting a set of four like that builds in some nice insurance for the A's.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Gnats get Gio Gonzalez for Peacock, Cole, Norris, Milone /tossing off names as though I know them Twitter says Nats got ripped They certainly didn't get a #2-ish pitcher cheaply from what I can tell. Assuming this is the correct Cole (and I don't see another one in their system) he's as highly rated as Peacock even if not quite as ready. On the other hand, the Nats look to have a very decent rotation next season plus a good pen. Oakland, I guess, is reloading for 2013 and beyond. From John Sickels (who just did his Washington evaluation the other day) #3 (ranking among Wash prospects) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B+. I really believe in his upside. Needs to build stamina and refine his changeup, but if it comes together he could be a Top 20 pitching prospect next year, perhaps more. #4 Brad Peacock, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. Still has some command issues, but his ERAs finally caught up with his components and his overall potential in 2011. Will be ready before Cole but his upside is not quite as high. Future 2/3 starter if all works out. #6 Derek Norris, C, Grade B: Loads of power, walks, and scouting reports on his defense are getting more positive each year. Ranking may seem high for such a low batting average, but I see him as a Mike Napoli/Mickey Tettleton type who can be productive even with a low average. #9 Tom Milone, LHP, Grade B-: At some point, the radar guns stop mattering. The guy can simply pitch. He has little margin for error, but he will probably have a better career than hundreds of guys who throw 10 MPH harder.

Give him some points for consistency though. In 2010 he hit .191 over 178 ABs (for Seattle) In 2011 he hit .190 over 179 ABs (for San Diego)

Gwreck wrote: I actually find Carlin an intriguing choice. Somehow I don't think he's going to be doing the "loudmouths" act while doing PBP. I'm with GWreck on this one. I'm not saying he's a 'MUST GET' but they could do a lot worse. - Sure Carlin doesn't have a classic announcer's voice, but I also don't think having a Mr. Golden Pipes is the most important prerequisite for the radio sidekick guy. - the 'Loudmouths' stuff is pure schtick directed, I'm sure, from the show's producers who think having two guys insulting each other because they just happen to be on the opposite side of every issue is going to create TV magic as some sort of love-child between ESPN's 'Pardon the Interruption' and the old SNL 'Point-Counterpoint' parody. - when he did come out from under Francesa's shadow [insert joke here] and got WFAN shifts on his own he was more than OK. He always seemed to know his stuff and is reasonably quick-witted. - and while he claims to no longer be a Met fan (he got mad at the Mookie deal and somehow adopted the Rangers as a replacement) he'll at least not be ignorant of the team's history or of NYC. I can't imagine Duquette being anything special based on the little I've heard him on TV and Coleman or Sample both strike me as the kind of vanilla choices we've knocked this org for in the past.