Frayed Knot

Edgy MD wrote: Open Conforto in St. Lucie, you think? You would think that a top-drafted player from a major college program would be able to handle it. Not sure if blowing him past low-A Savannah even qualifies as 'skipping a level' as the org sometimes uses a start in Brooklyn as more of a brief showcase than anything. Montero: What we have to remember about Montero is that he went from the DSL to the majors in three years so some adjustment period is to be expected. He even looked as if he was starting to settle down very late in the season.

John Sickels posts his NYM list (with BA's due out tomorrow). I generally look forward to this review above any others. Not that he's any more likely to be right than anyone else but because he'll go beyond just ten deep, and that he assigns grades and descriptions that go beyond just an ordinal list, and the fact that none of it is hidden behind a pay wall helps too. 1) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Age 22, 4.60 ERA with 145/43 K/BB in 133 innings in Triple-A, 154 hits. I don�t think there is anything wrong with Syndergaard that getting out of the PCL/Las Vegas won�t cure. Velocity continues to increase, curve continues to improve, just needs to prove that minor health issues aren�t precursor to anything major. 2) Steven Matz, LHP, Grade B+: Age 23, 2.24 ERA with 131/35 K/BB in 141 innings between High-A and Double-A. Great story on Tommy John recovery, power lefty arm with good command, fastball well into the 90s now. Terrific complement to Syndergaard. 3) Dilson Herrera, 2B, Grade B+: Age 20. Hit .323/.379/.479 with 13 homers, 23 steals, 47/96 BB/K in 524 at-bats in High-A/Double-A. His reputation is growing but if anything he may still be under-estimated. 4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 21, hit .322/.448/.458 in High-A but just .238/.339/.396 in Double-A. I love Nimmo�s on-base abilities and overall approach, but I am hesitant to go full-bore B+ or higher at this time due to serious platoon split problems. For now I have Herrera ahead, which is likely a minority view. That should be seen as praise for Herrera, not any disrespect towards Nimmo, who is one of my favorite prospects. 5) Kevin Plawecki, C, Grade B: Age 23, hit .309/.365/.460 between Double-A and Triple-A. Just a solid all-around prospect, not deadly against bsaerunners but otherwise very skilled on defense, not a big home run hitter but should maintain solid average and OBP with gap power. Great backup for Travis d�Arnaud, can start if necessary. He would also make attractive trade bait. 6) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B: Age 24. People seem a little down on him but I�m not really sure why: he�s pitched very well in the difficult environment of Las Vegas and the PCL (3.31 ERA in 169 innings, 158/59 K/BB, 154 hits), and while he doesn�t have blistering stuff, the complete package has always played up. He needs to adapt his command to the majors but he could be the Jake Odorizzi of 2015. I think there is some prospect fatigue with this one, everyone looking for shiny new toys and overlooking a guy who has always gotten the job done. 7) Michael Conforto, OF, Grade B: Age 21. Very advanced college hitter with above-average power and good strike zone judgment, should not need very long in the minors. Hit .331/.403/.448 in New York-Penn League. Athleticism may be underrated but his defense still needs polish, which is OK if he hits as expected. 8) Marcos Molina, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Age 19, Flavor of the Month after dominant turn in the New York-Penn League (1.77 ERA, 91/18 K/BB in 76 innings, 46 hits), impeccable statistically with good reports on mid-90s fastball and change-up, breaking stuff still needs some work and we need to see what kind of workload he can handle. With Syndergaard and Montero likely graduating to the majors in 2015, Molina could be top of the list next year. 9) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade B-/Borderline B. Age 19, hit .289/.337/.380 in NY-P. Scouting reports and defense are ahead of his offensive production at this point, hardly atypical for his age of course. High ceiling with both bat and glove, needs work with the strike zone and defensive reliability. Like Molina, could shoot to the top of the list next year. 10) Jhoan Urena, 3B, Grade B-: Age 20, switch-hitter from Dominican Republic hit .300/.356/.431 in the NY-P with 20 doubles. Long-term defense and future home run production are unanswered questions, but there is a lot to like here. Mets fans are aware of him but he is just now earning national attention. See more via the link including prospects 11-20, an overall assessment of the system as a whole, and (as time goes on) comments and discussion from the prospect nerds who frequent that site, comments which can range from insightful to downright silly.

Well I say yes. There is more money potential in foreign infielders than anything else we�re looking at now. If we don�t sign them somebody else will, maybe one of the other five NL East teams, maybe all of them. And with the money they�ll earn via extra TV rights and merchandising they�ll be able to buy more lineup and bullpen power, then they�ll come after us. Right now we have the young pitching and the farm system and they�re the best things to have. But foreign infielders are a thing of the future and if we don�t get a piece of that action we risk everything we have. Not now, but ten years from now. Next scene: Agent Borazzo enters ...

Edgy MD wrote: Chase Headley looks like he'll stay with the Yanx for another four years. This sure seems like a Luis Castillo of a move. The thing about Headley is what an outlier 2012 was for him - specifically the power spike. He never hit more than 13 HRs in any season except for 2012 when he suddenly exploded for 31 in a pitcher friendly park and finished 5th in MVP with an AS appearance and Silver Slugger award. Last year he had what seems like the usual jump in stats after getting traded to the Yanx in mid-season: up 33 points in BA, 85 in OBA, but unless that small sample size is a sign of things to come then, yeah, it does have a whiff of Castillo to it. The more interesting thing it that Cashman said, pre-signing, that if he did sign Headley it was to be the full-time 3B leaving ARod competing for DH ABs with the likes of Teixeira, Beltran, McCann and whoever, plus maybe the occasional 1B start - and is STILL signed for another three years!!

Alex Rios to KC for one year Also Brian Anderson goes to the Dodgers on a one-year deal at $10 million plus incentives. Now I heard this yesterday and immediately had trouble remembering who Anderson even was. Turns out he's a soon-to-be 27 y/o LHP who was with Oakland for five season and then pitched in 2014 for Colorado. His career numbers are OK but nothing outstanding: 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHiP. So why is he so anonymous? -- maybe because he's managed all of 81 starts (plus 11 relief appearances) over those six seasons with nearly 1/3 of them (30) coming as a rookie back in 2009. His start numbers have gone from 30 that first year, down to 19, then 13, 6, 5, and 8. The problem, needless to say, has been a string of injuries including TJ surgery in 2011 and other presumably unrelated ones since including a broken finger and back surgery. So this, apparently, is what $10 mil buys you these days (and maybe more depending on the specifics of the incentives): a guy who's started 30 games over the last three seasons and has won all of 27 in his career (vs 32 losses). It's one of several examples I've noticed to indicate that, despite what seems to be repeated as if a universally agreed upon fact, Bartolo is hardly overpaid on his now one-year deal.

I was just about to bring Lowrie up as Richard Justice had him going to the Mets on his prediction sheet. The biggest stumbling block here may have been that he wanted, and got, three years (plus an option) which was longer than the Mets wanted to go, more so than the money which wasn't all that high in total ($23 + $5 for the 4th year).

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Ceetar wrote: That's really what the Wilpon-hate is about. Mets fans want them to operate at a loss cause they're rich and this is NY and suck it up and do so. No, I want them to accept that they can't afford to run a New York City sports franchise as it ought to be run, and they should sell to someone who can. I think they think they can get back to being in that position even if they're not there now.

Chase Headley looks like he'll stay with the Yanx for another four years.

The difference seems to be that the Cubs are doing so on the cusp of an upswing [61 wins in 2012, to 69, to 73] and what seems almost universally considered to be the strongest farm system in MLB right now; while the ChiSox, also off a 73 win season, seem to be doing all this adding with a hope that the additions will take a bad team and jump-start it to the top of their division. That latter strategy rarely works. Plus, are a 35 y/o 1B (LaRoche), a closer, a one-year sorta-ace (Samardzija), and someone named Melky really the formula to long-term success?

Doesn't matter if it works or not. Do it anyway. It'll embarrass them at cocktail parties. It'll make them just a tad apprehensive about attending any public events. Whatever joy they seem to milk out of owning a baseball franchise may curdle, even just a tiny bit. And, personally, I'll settle for some Wilponian discomforture in the short term. they should share our pain, hiding behind their plexiglass walls. And that's fine too. I'm not trying to talk anybody out of anything here, but fans have been yelling shit about the Wilsons since the 90s - including during times when the team was good. But the bottom line is that it's different than trying to embarrass Woody Johnson into firing his GM, and that, unless fans are TRULY willing to boycott games, cancel SNY, stop buying merchandise, etc. -- and to stick to it even if the team finds itself 40-29 during the second week of June!! -- then the effect is to be spitting into the wind.

Centerfield wrote: How are they not being run out of town? Because it's a private business where one family owns a majority share of a business with at least the potential to make money even if it's not making any (or much) now. IOW they have neither a reason nor the interest in selling and, short of an organized and disciplined mass boycott (and when exactly have those ever succeeded in sports?), there's really no way to get them out.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Sure, but the idea this winter is that we need a SS. If you sign Kang it's not going to be for him to sit around for a year waiting for Murphy to hit FA status. My thinking was that Kang could play shortstop in 2015, and if it turns out he's better suited to second base, he could move there in 2016. I think the emphasis needs to be: if you're going to get a SS, get a SS rather than someone pretending to be one. But as we're finding out on this great SS odyssey this off season, there are lots of choices out there but all of them have flaws in some way in the same way that the incumbent choices do.

Melky Cabrera continues to put up some nice offensive numbers but, while doing so, will join his sixth club in seven years thanks to his new three year FA deal with the ChiSox Starting with his 4th season in the Bronx in 2009, he went from the Yanx - Braves - Royals - Giants - Jays - and now White Sox. That includes two trades, one release, and now three FA deals.

Sure, but the idea this winter is that we need a SS. If you sign Kang it's not going to be for him to sit around for a year waiting for Murphy to hit FA status. And if they're going to trade Muffy first then they've already got 2B alternatives (Flores, Herrera) and we'd still be sticking a pseudo-SS out there every day. In the meantime, Sherman in the Post is crowing: Damn the risks and go for Tulowitski

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Maybe "Mr. Baseball" has tainted my perception of stuff, but how common is diving in the Asian game? Not sure, but remember it was back when Kaz Matsui got here that we learned of the oddity that Japanese infielders rarely played balls to the backhand (or at least that was the story at the time). Anyway, Mr. Kang is to be posted by his Korean Lg team on Monday with the Mets, Giants, & A's being listed as the ones with the most interest. As mentioned before, Korean players become available via the 'old' posting system that governed the early generation of Japanese players until those rules were updated a few seasons back. So interested teams will need to win a bidding process (with all that money going to the club) for the right to negotiate a deal with the player. The article announcing this on mlb.com warns that the 1.189 OPS that Kang put up this past season [39 HRs, 115 RBI in 116 games, and a career .298/.382/.502] comes from a league where offense is much more plentiful than in MLB. Runs scored in the Korean league were 11.4 per game combined this past year as compared to 8.2 in MLB 2014. Even during the height of the steroid era in MLB teams runs scored topped out at just over 10 Runs/G And then there's the question as to whether teams view him as a SS or 2B

I actually saw a brief rumor a few days back about that Santana and ... the Twins!, but at the same time it sounded quite far from being a reality.

Ervin Santana to the Twins for four years.

smg58 wrote: I'm not sure why our farm system is so worth raiding, but I bet/hope we get most of those guys back. Sometimes how many players get selected in a given year is less a statement about the overall strength of the system being plucked than it is how many fall into the eligible category at one time -- although in this case I think we're going to see many of the gurus who rank these things putting the NYM system in their top 10 this winter and quite possibly in the top 5 so it's probably a matter of both.

Not to change the subject or anything, but here's a Jim Callis (mlb.com, formerly of BA) rundown of the best prospects traded away (sometimes more than once) at these just concluded winter meetings - guys who, a few years from now, might fall into the category of: 'I can't believe they gave up HIM back in '14 for one year of that broken down old fart who never did anything for us!!' Or we may never hear from them again ... who knows.

Nats deal away LHP Ross Detwiler to Texas for a pair of A-ball minor leaguers. Detwiler was a one-time top draft pick (6th overall, 2007) who seemed to be on his way after decent seasons in 2012-13, but then was nudged to bullpen by Tanner Roark and eventually left off the playoff roster in 2014.

FWIW, BA divides the chances of the 14 players taken in the Rule 5 draft sticking with their new teams into one of four categories: 50/50 - 4 players Low - 8 players, including Gilmartin Very Low - 1 player (Verrett) Extremely Low - 1 player So from a NYM point of view we may just end up with the same dance card we started with here, and that they still consider the odds of a drafted player becoming a full-time member of the new team to be the exception rather than the rule

Although I checked MLB's bylaws and it turns out that it IS possible to make trades, sign players, and make a myriad of other roster decisions even after the winter meetings are over.

Frayed Knot wrote: A Boy Named Seo wrote: Marlins get Mat Latos. He seems like a Marlin. I already hatted Mat Latos so now that he's in the division I can hat him even more. OK, now I really hat him. [fimg=350]http://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/latos.jpg?w=720&h=480&crop=1[/fimg] That's Dallas (of course that's her name) Latos

Edgy MD wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: How often do Rule 5 players stay with the team that selected them? I remember years ago, they almost always got sent back before the season ended. I sense that that's not so much the case anymore. Probably more often than not, these days. My feeling is that maybe they stick with their new team more often than they used to but I still think that carrying a Rule-5 guy on the ML roster the entire year without his original team having the option to snatch him back is still the exception rather than the norm. Of course the teams that lost them don't always want them back (or circumstances change to where they have no place for him anymore) so other arrangements are sometimes made if choosing team wants to keep their new man but send him down during the year. And, yes, the rules are different for the minor league phase but I'm not up on all the specifics.

From Sickel's website: -- Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Twins: Age 24, former Braves first round pick in 2011 out of Florida State who was traded to Minnesota last spring. Posted 3.71 ERA with 133/44 K/BB in 146 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year. A classic finesse lefty, his heater is usually in the 80s and he survives by changing speeds and throwing strikes. He could stick as a fifth starter or relief option. -- Logan Verrett, RHP, Mets: Age 24, third round pick from Baylor in 2011, posted 4.33 ERA with 119/34 K/BB in 162 innings for Triple-A Las Vegas, with 188 hits allowed. Respected for his durability and control, Verrett has a complete fastball/slider/curve/arsenal but has never excited scouts with average/below velocity. Still, he survived the Las Vegas pinball machine with his career and confidence intact and could prove a useful long relief option for the Orioles.