Frayed Knot

The Phils really need to win their Hamels starts -- someone said he doesn't even have starts anymore, he has auditions -- but they're only 2-4 in them so far. He's pitched well in three of those starts but not in the others and is coming off his worst game of the year: 6 runs, all earned, on 10 hits + 3 walks over 6 innings vs Miami.

They've also neither won, nor lost, a game via walk-off - something that may not be a record but is probably longer than usual as well. Both conditions are particularly odd this year as they've been in so many close games. 18 games have been decided by 2 runs or fewer. They've lost by more than two runs just 3 times, and won by more than two 7 times.

(Brief) thoughts on the game - So, how many rows into the seats is that first fly out by Granderson if he's back in YSIII? 6?, 15?, 75? - Dilson hit two balls hard that seemed like real good pitches (from a pitcher's perspective). The liner up the middle that went right past the pitcher's hip was smacked practically off the ground. And then the HR pitch was up and in yet he not only got around on it but drove it Not sure I'd choose either pitch selection as exhibits in a 'How-to' clinic, but both swings sure made me sit up and watch. - not sure that Familia was necessary with a four run lead and just a runner on 1st, especially seeing as how two games ago (A) Torres did the 3-K thing after coming in with the bases loaded and no outs. Not a big deal (especially with the off day) but I think Torres has earned some degree of trust and if you're not going to do it there ...

deGrom - 4.4 ATorres - 0.2 CTorres - 0.2 Herrera - 2.6 Granderson - 2.1 Plawecki - 0.25 Cuddyer - 0.25

If he was playing back w/the Yanx he'd have two HRs today. Or maybe even three, I think there was a check-swing foul earlier that might have gone out of YSIII.

WOW!! Just getting to that pitch was good stuff much less hitting it out.

In comes Brad Brach, he's the rush chairman, and he's damn glad to meet you.

Bartolo's walk rate so far this season is less than half that of even the 2nd best in the majors and 1/3 that of the guy in 3rd - Colon = .223 [walks per/9 innings] - Jason Hammell (CHC) = .575 - Michael Pineda (NYY) = .686 - Josh Collmenter (ARZ) = .827 - Phil Hughes (MIN) = .956 and those are the only five guys (counting both leagues) that are even under 1.00 Not sure how historically out of line this is. Bret Saberhagen is a guy I think of for low walks and his lowest over a full season (it was his 3rd season as a Met) was 0.6598 oe: ah, here we go, lowest since 1900 is Carlos Silva for the 2005 Twins: 0.4301 To illustrate how freakish Silva's 2005 was, it, Saberhagen's (shortened season) 1994, and Phil Hughes from last year [0.6868] are the only seasons since 1920 in the top 50 of all time.

Bryce Harper with 3 HRs in his first 3 ABs this afternoon. He then grounded out in AB #4 in the 7th inning. Is 7th in line to bat in the 8th inning so the Nats need a rally to get him up and, with Washington at home and handily ahead of Miami, they won't likely bat in the 9th.

John Sickels: [Nimmo is] hitting .372 in his last 10 games and .304/.375/.457 overall for Double-A Binghamton. He played half of 2014 in the Eastern League and it will be interesting to see how quickly the Mets move him up to Triple-A if he remains this hot.

The only thing I'll say for Granderson to date -- and I can't prove this but I believe it to be true -- is that he's seemed to be really unlucky so far, lots of at 'em balls off his bat.

Bartolo vs Dilson Not even close, Colon's got like a 3-to-1 weight advantage. No way should that fight be sanctioned.

Gee - 2.8 ATorres - 1.5 Plawecki - 0.5 Lagares - 0.5 Granderson - 0.2

Niese - 4.0 CTorres - 1.1 Duda - 0.7 Lagares - 0.7

Harvey - 4.7 Familia - 1.1 Cuddyer - 1.5 Lagares - 0.8 Murphy - 1.9

Colon - 5.2 CTorres - 0.2 Familia - 0.4 Duda - 1.3 Murphy - 1.6 Plawecki - 1.3

One of those games where it seemed like we should have had more than 3 runs - on the other hand if we didn't bunch those doubles the way we did then it could have been even fewer. Pitching was great, Machado and Davis can do that to anyone (you know both were gone before they cleared the infield airspace) so there's nothing to worry about on that front. Nice to get back on the winning side; going for the sweep tomorrow.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: How on earth does Muffy finish 3rd? I guess a few big moments in a mostly awful year so far beats consistent Okayness (Cuddyer, Flores, Grandyman). Yup. I'm sure the 3R HR game and the 3R 2B game accounted for a huge share of his points. Bad month for the bench when neither Mayberry or Nieuwenhuis (or Recker for that matter) can match the stupendous start of Ruben Tejada.

Yeah, several of those platoon/OF/IF/DH guys have some decent numbers, but no one seems to have a specific, full time job to call his own and of course they're going to have to lose one of them during this series on account of no DH. Plus any set-up that involves Delmon Young on the field with a glove in his hand is a net plus for the opposing team.

I'm going with a minor trade and/or DFA involving Recker. They haven't announced yet because they're still trying to work something out that will prevent a flat DFA. No way they're dealing Plawecki having barely taken him for a test drive and with d'Arnaud out for probably another month.

So am I and I'm part of it.

I think you're treating Duda's road to not just a starter but a potential upper-level one as much more of a sure thing than it ever was. Sickels gives out 'C' grades to average prospects and never went above 'C+' in any year. Those players are, in his mind, ones who may make the majors some day if things go well. That doesn't mean 'C' players can't be future regulars or even stars but that the odds are against it and many more C-level guys have a future as bench players or simply never make the majors at all.

Quickie O's KTE Adam Jones (CF) and Manny Machado (3B) play everyday and are both real good with stick and with glove. Jones in particular is hitting over .400 this season. C - Caleb Joseph is filling in quite well so far [.305/.414/.475] for the (once again) injured Matt Weiters. Joseph also spent the empty-stadium game last week pantomiming signing autographs along the stands and high-fiving and cap-tipping to the imaginary fans. 1B - Chris Davis had a GREAT 2013 but is now trying to come back from a bad 2014 which ended with a drug suspension. 2B - Rookie Rey Navarro & journeyman Steve Pearce have been sharing the job. SS - Evreth cabrera (ex of Sandy Eggo) is one of the short stops we opted not to pursue over the winter and, at the moment, he's doing about what all the SS we didn't sign are doing [.221/.235/.247] A variety of guys seem to be manning the corner OF/DH/PH spots following the loss of Nick Markakis, none on a regular basis or to any particular distinction: Alejandro de Aza, David Lough, Steve Pearce, Travis Snider, Delmon Young, Jimmy Paderes

Ken Davidoff at the NYPost pries the lid off the SS discussion once again. Nuthin like a few errors plus an off day to wake up slumbering spirits. (it's partly why this thread is 20 pages long!!) Specifically he mentions: - Alexi Ramirez (ChiSox): His team is off to a crappy start despite their off-season spending spree ... but so it Alexi [.205/.247/.295]. Only on a one-year deal and would certainly help the defense - Asdrubal Cabrera (TBR): Off to an even crappier start [.194/.250/.269] after signing a one year deal as a FA in the off season. Notable in that the Mets weren't interested at the time. Also like Ramirez, he's coming off a decent 2014 so maybe the slow start is just that. - Troy Tulowitzki (Rox): You know that no article can be written about potential NYM SS without including this guy. Still going to be expensive both in terms of money and live bodies. And, look, the 30 y/o coming off hip surgery who will be your through the 2020 season is somewhat off from his elite so far this season. - Starlin Castro (CHC): Again it's in the writers handbook that he needs to be mentioned; Mets have lots of pitching, Cubs have lots of SSs, etc. - Jimmy Rollins (LAD): I know, he just signed there. But this is based on the idea that the Dodgers' up-and-coming SS (Corey Seager) could be ready soon and that Rollins too is off to a slow start [.176/.269/.308]. Player can veto any trade.

Ceetar wrote: The talent was always there with Duda, and it was clear from the beginning. Not really. I mean obviously there's some talent there or you don't get drafted. But a 7th round college pick is nothing particularly special. I don't have the stats for the percentage of 7th rounders who even become an everyday player in the big leagues but I know it's a single digit percentage and I'd bet that that single digit is probably under 3. What Sickels is asking here is if anyone saw this coming, throwing the question open to the flocks of prospect geeks who frequent his site. One of the things I like about his site is that he's good at looking back at players who make or break out in the majors to see how accurate (or not) his projections were (something you'll never see from the crew who spent the last two months making absolutist pronouncements on the NFL draft). In this case he's looking at a player who is clearly out-playing his draft rank & prospect reports.