batmagadanleadoff

who wants to tell them how many places include BB% in the list of stats? Is everyone here 65 years old? [TWEET]https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608[/TWEET] Baseball Reference lists walk rates (BB%). It's in the Advanced Batting section for each player. Also, I don't get your age reference. You'd figure that, generally, younger fans would be more interested in walk rates than older fans.

Frayed Knot wrote: Simply the gap between a player's BA & OBA. The difference, unless significantly affected by HBPs which is barely relevant for most hitters, measures how often a hitter draws a walk. 65 to 70 points has been the traditional average and it's not a rate that varies much over time. It was 69 in 2024 for MLB as a whole. From his ML debut through his CIN & SEA seasons (2017 - 2022) when Winker was more or less a full time player, his BA/OBA gap was 104, significantly above league averages and even his 'down' rate as a Met (75) was still higher than league norms. For comparison, Keith Hernandez was 88 over the length of his career. You can usually find ultra high rates in power hitters where both careful pitching and high numbers of IWs start to play a major role such as Giambi (122) or Thome (126), or freaks like Bonds (146) and Williams (138) So this conversation we've been having over calculating a batter's walk rate has been nagging at me all afternoon, ever since we had it. I knew something was wrong and am now angry with myself for not seeing it immediately. Your method doesn't work -- for several reasons. First of all, there's the problem with HBP's, which you recognize and acknowledge. Your method also inflates the walk rate of batters who have many sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies. A sac lowers a players OBP, but doesn't affect a player's BA because a a sac is neither a hit not an AB. Your method thus inflates a batter's walk rate because a SAC lowers a batter's OBP without affecting his BA. But even if you wanted to concede these flaws on grounds that sacs and HBPs don't happen often enough to have a major influence on your numbers - your math doesn't work. You can't accurately subtract averages from each other unless the denominators in those averages are equal. The denominators for the same player's PAs and ABs are different because not all PAs are ABs. I'll illustrate: A batter goes two for two in his first two at-bats. His BA is 1.000. His OBP is also 1.000. You would subtract his BA (1.000) from his OBP (1.000) to get his walk rate, which in this case is 0. That result is correct. The batter hasn't drawn a walk. Yet. But watch what happens when that batter draws a walk in his third plate appearance. His BA stays at 1.000 because he got two hits in two at-bats. The walk is neither a hit nor an at-bat, and so has no effect on his BA. His OBP also stays at 1.000 because the walk is a plate appearance and the batter reached base in all three of his plate appearances without making an out. Your method would now produce a walk rate of 0 -- a 1.000 OBP minus a 1.000 BA. And that's wrong. The batter's walk rate is .333, based on one walk in three plate appearances. This doesn't work out. Now suppose that the batter, in his fourth plate appearance, finally makes an out. His BA drops from 1.000 to .667 (two for three). His OBP drops from 1.000 to .750 (2 hits and a walk in four plate appearances). Your method yields a walk rate of .083 -- (.750 -.667) But the batter's true walk rate is .250 based on one walk in four plate appearances. That's obviously wrong. The size of these errors will surely shrink as the batter accumulates more plate appearances and the numbers you work with get larger. But the math will still be off. Always. Unless the batter never draws a walk.

I do the same as soon as I see the slash line -- comparing BA to OBP. I've been doing that since I was a teenager though, granted, when I was a teenager you didn't get OBP's as readily and as pretty much automatically as you do today. I think that the standard way of measuring walk rate - BB/PA is the easiest way to do it because a 10% walk rate is pretty good and a 15% walk rate is excellent. It's child's play to calculate 10% of any number. And 15% is just about as easy -- 10% plus half of that 10%.

=smg58 post_id=183324 time=1737308843 user_id=62] Is anybody besides the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers even trying?

=metsmarathon post_id=183314 time=1737303978 user_id=83] Fucking dodgers

That's an unusual way to express a batter's walk rate. When I saw your numbers,, I had no idea what they meant or how you got them. Walk rate is a standardized stat, calculated as BB/PA. A walk rate of 15% is considered excellent. I guess your way works for you. You've probably been doing it that way for a long time and are used to it.. But most other people won't know what your numbers mean or what the context is for those numbers.

How did you calculate Winker's walk rates?

Cohen made that much money in the time it took you to write this. He probably did.

What money? The Dodgers got him for less money than the Mets are gonna pay Jesse Winker. And they didn't have to trade for him or give up top prospects, either.

What leaks? "Pete Alonso is willing to compromise with a three year deal! And despite lots of interest, it's only open to the Mets! What a guy!" "Can you believe it? Even after Pete came to the Mets with a three year deal structure, they still refuse to compromise on money. Steve Cohen is gonna have to get involved." "Did you guys hear that the Mets are forcing a deadline on Pete's negotiations?" "WTF. Check out this low-ball offer the Mets made. After everything Pete has done." "The Mets have moved on from Alonso. Their plan B is Brett Baty. Get ready for life without Pete Mets fans." I just don't get what all the fuss is about these supposed "leaks" or whatever they are. The parties can divulge to the press whatever they wanna divulge about the negotiations. Also, I don't see what kind of an edge Boras gets from this info or leaks or whatever it is. If the info is true, then it's info that the Mets already know. I don't think that Boras is that dumb that he thinks the Mets are gonna go against their plan and crumble just because the dumb and uninformed portion of the Mets fanbase reacts to this info the way that dumb and uninformed people tend to react to things. Is that what Boras thinks is gonna happen? That the Mets are gonna be goaded into paying Alonso way more than they were willing to pay because some idiot calls up Mike Francesca and blows a gasket on live radio over Alonso's unsigned status? Maybe that's how things worked under the Wilpons. Not that they'd have the money to even be in the Alonso talks. The Mets are offering Alonso in the 23M-24M AAV range. Freddie Freeman, a better first baseman, got a $27M AAV contract. Miguel Cabrera got the highest AAV ($31M) in baseball history for a first baseman. But Cabrera was a triple threat -- not only capable of leading the league in HR's and RBI's like Alonso, but in batting average as well, unlike Alonso.Cabrera was a four time batting champ. He was also toast by his age 32 ssason. If the Mets offer is so bad, some team would have topped it by now. ST is one month away and the big ticket FA purchases are always the first dominoes to fall during the off-season. The Mets offer sounds very fair. Maybe the Mets left a little wiggle room to raise their offer. But they're definitely in the ballpark of what seems fair and reasonable. I also think that some other team would need to blow the Mets offer out of the water. Because if they just top it by a little bit, why would Alonso take the little bit of extra money to walk away from his cherished team and the great city that he came to love? And he'd be in line to shatter most of the Mets franchise major batting records. That surely means a lot to Alonso. What's an extra two or three million dollars to a guy that will make between $150M and $200M by the time he's 40 between baseball salaries and endorsements? How much money does a person need? Why would he walk away from all of that for an extra million dollars a year?

Me personally, I tend to believe what's being reported. I don't have all of the details, the granular stuff, the minutiae. But I believe the big, broad picture that other teams are showing interest in Alonso, and that the Mets, truly and sincerely need for Alonso to decide sooner rather than later.

And the Mets might, just the same, be playing their own bluff with this supposed deadline for Pete to come to terms.

Oh. I don't get why all of that is considered a "leak". The negotiations aren't top secret talks held in a SCIF. The parties can say what they wanna say.

What leaks?

Wasn't it reported that the Mets offered 3/90? I guess that was incorrect.

If you wanna blame, blame eff Wilpon for selling out the Mets future. Alonso shouldn't even be a free agent this off-season. It's been like 5 years. wtf cares about the Wilpons? It's 2025, if they don't want to 'overpay' Alonso, that's a decision, but it's not super useful to armchair GM the way you think things happened 6 years ago. It's a factor. It's not the only factor and it's not even the main factor, but it's definitely a factor and something to consider.. Not useful to what? Do you think that my post is gonna screw up the Alonso negotiations?

Jayson Stark voted for David Wright on his Cooperstown ballot. Here comes some brilliant logic: Stark assumes that Wright would've been inducted had he not gotten hurt, and so votes for Wright even though he did get hurt. Maybe the Veterans Committee will vote Bud Harrelson into the HOF one day. Harrelson would've gotten into the HOF if he was as big and strong as Aaron Judge. And Harrelson would've also gotten into Cooperstown had he hit 800 HR's. I guess they're gonna vote players in for things they didn't do instead of the things they did do; for imaginary accomplishments that they never accomplished.

Can't blame the Alonso camp if they end up getting a better deal from some team other than the Mets. If you wanna blame, blame eff Wilpon for selling out the Mets future. Alonso shouldn't even be a free agent this off-season.

Can't blame the Alonso camp if they end up getting a better deal from some team other than the Mets.

The Athletic is reporting that Alonso's market is starting to heat up, with three other teams, including the Blue Jays, in talks with Boras. The Jays, though, would prefer to keep Guerrero.

Past few weeks, if you ask me.

Is it just me or is taking unusually longer for pages on this website to load, lately? Seems like the site is running slower.

I've thought for months that it will take Cohen to step in and get a deal done. Time will tell Or maybe Cohen and Stearns are on the same page. There doesn't seem to be another market for Alonso. And Cohen has to establish that he's not gonna pay free agents whatever the hell they wanna get paid just because he's baseball's wealthiest owner.

This, of course, could change. There's always the chance that another team could step in and up the Mets offer. But the Mets are probably assuming that Alonso wants so badly to remain a Met, that he'd give the Mets a chance to match or top that offer (unlike deGrom).

Poor Alonso. So long as he prefers to play for the Mets and no other team seems willing to top the Mets offer, Alonso has absolutely no leverage here. None.