smg58

Thome could still hit 35 HR, and as long as the CWS aren't footing most of the bill this could work in their favor. They wanted to make room in their outfield for Brian Anderson, and they decided Rowand was the most expendable of their starters from this year. Obviously the deal doesn't hurt Philadelphia, either. They should be happy to have gotten legit major league talent in return. With Cameron and Rowand dealt, the market for centerfielders is shrinking considerably. That could boost Damon's asking price.

I know I'm late to most of this thread, but today has been hectic. I like Delgado, and I'm glad he's here, but if winning now was so important why didn't we offer more money last year? We're basically paying the same money per year, for one less year (and he would have benefited the team enormously last year), and now we've given up two players we might miss later. It almost seems like an admission of a mistake on Minaya's part. Regarding ballparks: 146 HR were hit in Mets home games last year, and 164 in Mets road games. 109 HR were hit in Marlins home games, and 135 in Marlins road games. Yes Shea isn't ideal for power hitters, but Pro Player is actually worse, so there is no reason to question Delgado's ability to hit here. And Shea is more favorable to lefties than righties; somebody suggested that we haven't had a lefty power hitter to take advantage of that, but I think Cliff Floyd would disagree. I'd project Jacobs as getting an .850 OPS, with very large error bars. Delgado should be at least 100 points higher, with much smaller error bars. I like Jacobs, but there would have been an element of risk playing him at first. (Then again, I think there is a bigger risk going with Diaz or Nady in right field than Jacobs would be at first, but we'll see how things pan out.) The Red Sox haggled the Marlins into accepting their second best pitching prospect instead of their first, and it's not clear who else could have taken on as much of Delgado's contract as the Mets, so I think Olney may have a point that this deal could have been made for less. I have a long-term concern with the Mets' direction, though. Assuming there's a limit to how much the Mets can spend -- and I have to think Delgado would have been here last year if there wasn't -- they can only go to the well so often. Beltran's contract is very heavily backloaded, and Reyes and Wright will soon have rapidly escalating salaries. If Minaya is not careful, the Mets could wind up in a few years with no money to spend and no minor-league talent to supplant aging players. In other words, if they're aiming to win now, then they sure as hell had better win now.

$11M would be more per year than Rivera or Gagne. And with so many other relievers on the market, too. I couldn't support this if it's true. I hope the Mets remember that Beltran's contract is heavily backloaded, and that Reyes gets arbitration after 06 and Wright after 07. The "win now or die" approach is great if you win now, but...

But what if he doesn't spend the whole year in Norfolk?

I'd have figured that any deal for Delgado would have to include Jacobs, to be honest. My first problem is money. At best, we're paying the same per year that we offered Delgado in the first place, only with one less year and costing us Jacobs and Petit in addition. I also can't see why we couldn't have haggled down Petit to Trachsel and Bannister. If this is true, I wish Petit and Jacobs well, but not so well that we regret this quickly.

The league has to be careful. If they allow Loria to dismantle two different franchises, that will look really bad. It's one thing to keep payroll in order, but it's in MLB's best interests to let Loria know, in no uncertain terms, when to stop. Hanley hasn't yet hit to his hype (A big deal .720 OPS in AA), so perhaps the Red Sox know something. Lowell sucked spectacularly last year, but I don't see why he couldn't rebound. The Red Sox seem determined not to make room in the starting line-up for Kevin Youkilis and I'm not sure why. Beckett made the Yankees look bad in 03. That had to factor into Boston's thinking. Robert Andino was supposed to step in for Alex Gonzalez at short for the Marlins, but his future suddenly looks a lot less certain. At any rate I'm not sure either he or Ramirez is ready to start 06 in the majors. And the Red Sox talked the Marlins into taking their second best pitching prospect instead of their first. (Omar, are you taking notes???) Mets fans have a reason to be happy. And Yankee fans have a reason to be pissed off. I guess I shouldn't be too critical.

heep wrote: I think the Mets have given up on Matsui. I have (Mets and Marlins talking in a deal for Castillo) It's pretty clear the Mets don't want Matsui back. The question is how to get rid of him. The only rumor I've heard involves Pudge, but I can't imagine Detroit would consider Pudge for Kaz a fair deal. (Pudge's poor OBP last year notwithstanding, I don't think you could say no to them if they actually do want that.) heep wrote: Wasn't Castillo hurt last year? Again, hypothetically, trading Anderson Hernandez for Castillo. The Marlins already have a SS prospect they'll now have to switch to 2B assuming this deal with the Sox goes. At this point, they'll ask for pitching. I'm not sure what the Mets' plans are for Hernandez at this point, though. heep wrote: Personally, the win-now appraoch, i.e. Kazmir/Zambrano, nags the shit out of me. Don't ask me why. Why? Look at all the success it's brought the Knicks. There are right and wrong ways, and right and wrong situations, to deal prospects for veterans. The fact that Kazmir has already given the D-Rays more than Zambano has given the Mets says all that needs to be said about that particular trade. Right now (unlike in 03), the Mets are one or two players from contention. The trick is to find the right balance between the long-term and short-term interests of the team. Any deal that involves Lastings Milledge will probably take away from the team four years from now, for example, but it's not really clear if that's true for players like Hernandez. heep wrote: Fans take more to players who come up throught the system. I do. Does anyone have an explanation for that? I'm not sure if that's entirely true. It took a few months, but we all warmed up to Piazza. Fans may have more patience with a struggling rookie than they would with a struggling Carlos Beltran, but anybody who does what's expected of them will get cheers. heep wrote: I say dump Matsui's K. Take the chance with the kids. If I have to pay to see Matsui swing at balls 2 ft. out of the zone next summer I'm going to puke. I'd prefer giving Hernandez or Keppinger the chance over Matsui myself (although I know a few people here wouldn't). But you have to keep your expectations realistic, and you have to see if there are better options out there at an acceptable cost.

Castillo did have a .391 OBP last year. There's something to be said for that. He's no longer a big-time base stealer, though. How has his defense been lately? Somebody was also reporting that the Mets were looking at Mark Grudzielanek. He can field the position and is a pretty good hitter, and he might come cheap.

Now if we could get Glavine to combine his first half in 04 with his second half in 05...

Vidro's not going anywhere. Spivey probably is.

I don't what's so bad about Valent that the Mets would pursue Sweeney. The absence of Cameron means the Mets do need to find somebody who can play center besides Beltran. Is Lambin ready to take Anderson's spot?

I wouldn't have expected him to sign so quickly, but then again I wouldn't have given him two years. That might open a door for Lambin or Keppinger though, so perhaps it's a blessing in disguise.

He's definitely a useful righty bat, capable of spelling Jacobs (assuming he plays first) or Floyd. I don't expect him to be needed at third, but he'd prevent a disaster there if we're faced with an emergency. I think the last time he played center was against the Mets, when he turned at least one flyball into a triple and then Giles played center against lefties the rest of the year. If somebody asks for Diaz in a deal, the Mets would have needed to find somebody like Nady to replace him, so he definitely helps a lot in terms of flexibility. On the flipside, I don't see him as a regular on a good team, and while the money may help I still think this was a better deal for San Diego.

With the Mets being reportedly interested in everybody else, why has nobody (meaning the rumor mill, not CPF) mentioned Brian Giles? He's a better fielder than Manny, gets on more often (which the Mets really need), wouldn't force Floyd to move to right, would cost less money and wouldn't cost us any players, and the power difference wouldn't be nearly as dramatic as it looks if you put both Giles and Manny in Shea. If the Yankees can show serious interest in him as a centerfielder, which would be very risky, why can't the Mets show interest in him for right?

I've been in Minneapolis a few times and I love the place. A DH who may or may not get you an OPS of .800 is not worth $7M. If Piazza gets $5M and an option for next year, his agent is really good.

I'd have put that as Eyre's market value. He said he wanted to move closer to his home in Florida, but New York is closer than Chicago. I think we may have blinked and missed an opportunity. If the Pirates can't find $7.5M to pay Jason Bay in 2009, they should contract right now. I could see them dealing him if they don't think they can sign him beyond that year, but a few more years like last year and Bay will be worth twice that.

I'd much rather deal Bannister than Petit, and I'd be willing to replace Nady with Diaz and throw in either Trachsel or Zambrano to keep Petit. We have so much freed up money, along with an excess of starting pitching, that we can make beneficial moves without parting with our best prospects. Taking on Delgado at more money per year than we were willing to give him last year, and then throwing in Petit, strikes me as being counterintuitive. If we can't haggle the Marlins down, go elsewhere. Bigbie might actually be useful to us, if he can play center. We can't continue with Gerald Williams as our #2 CF, can we?

Could any of you with ESPN.com Insider please provide the gist of Buster Olney's article concerning the Cameron deal?

If the contract guarantees two years, I'd go with Wagner. If it takes at least three years to get either of them, I'd take Ryan (assuming he'd be a bit cheaper). If the price goes above $30M for Wagner or $25M for Ryan, I'd look at one of the older guys (Gordon, Wickman, Jones) for a short, relatively cheap contract (say two years at $10M or less) while grooming Heilman. I'd also look into Scott Eyre as a lefty setup guy, although a report today said we're not on his short list.

When the thread about lefty/righty splits at ballparks came out (this was in July I think), I remember checking the site and seeing that Petco was bad in general but far more so for lefties. So Nady's home/road splits might not necessarily be that flukish. Bringing in a righty bat with 30 HR potential even in unfriendly parks makes sense for the Padres, as counting on Giles and Klesko for power in that park just wasn't working. Klesko is now free to play his best defensive position (first base), but the Padres still have glaring holes in the corners of their outfield.

This deal was made first and foremost to free salary. It's value depends not so much on Nady, but on how the Mets spend the extra money. I hope this puts the Mets in the hunt for Brian Giles. Since Nady and Diaz are basically equivalent players (righty OF/1B with some upside), I would be surprised if both report to Port St. Lucie in February. If a team is offering the Mets something Minaya wants for a package that includes Diaz, the Mets would need a righty reserve bat for first base and/or the outfield. With Nady (assuming the reports are accurate), that role is filled pretty well.

The Mets were responsible for half of Ishii's buyout. Technically, since he has less than six years of service, he is still under the Mets' control, but picking up his contract would actually be cheaper than offering him arbitration. I think it's safe to say he's not coming back.

The "broke his left leg" bit is a concern. Catchers don't get less fragile as they get older. That's why Hernandez would have to come cheap before I consider him.

Poor Jake, all he ever does is hit. While they seem to be cynical about every free agent (at least all the ones presented here), the Pecota projection for Konerko is alarming, and presumably has to do with a change in parks. We should keep that in mind before shooting the moon for him.

I like that site a lot (minorleagueball.com), but I'd be curious to know if there's anything more than guesswork that goes into those projections.