smg58

Frayed Knot wrote: Maybe it was injuries, maybe the ballpark in Texas was responsible, maybe the pressure of his big contract got to him, or maybe he's just plain lost it.I think all of the above. The change in leagues and ballparks probably accounted for what happened his first season in Texas, then the injuries started, and at some point the confidence went poof. But there's a chance he could get "it" back for a bargain price, so there's certainly no harm in giving him a look.

Basically somebody asked Wright an extremely hypothetical question and Wright answered it. Like I said in another thread, I don't see how A-Rod opts out of $27M a years for the next three seasons.

Yes, I meant NOT guaranteed. Damn I hate it when I make typos like that. Let's hold on to this thread for a week and see how things progress.

Nymr83 wrote: Wouldn't Reyes get moved to 2B again? Isn't this the dumbest speculation ever? I'd hope not, and of course it's dumb but the subject came up so I guess we're talking about it.

How is Milledge doing? I would hope that Green's starting role is guaranteed.

It's actually $27M per year for the next three. He may ask for a trade -- and if he wants to go that badly the feeling would probably be mutual and the Yankees would quickly oblige him -- but I just don't see him simply walking away from that money. He could probably get 8 years and $160M if he opted out, but he'd need a reason to think he couldn't get 5 and $80M three years from now for it to pay. (The Texas Rangers, who are slated to pay him over $21M over the next three years to play for the Yankees, would probably throw a huge party if he did opt out, though.) And besides, A-Rod would bet a better fit at second base than Wright.

Set-up guys only make much of a fantasy impact in numbers. If you can find three good ones, you could get 20 wins and 200 K's with an ERA in the 2's and a WHIP around one. That equals one great starter. The catch is, you need to be in a pretty deep league for that to be a preferable option to additional full-time hitters or starting pitchers.

Cool, I have a better chance of not needing to autodraft on Sunday evening. So is anybody else jumping on the boat, or are we set at eleven?

Gomez strikes me as the best candidate to deal between him, Milledge, and Martinez, because he's the least likely of the three to put up strong offensive numbers for a corner outfielder. Sure he's probably the best defensive CF of the three, perhaps by a lot given his rep, but the Mets won't need a CF any time soon.

1. First hit Reyes 2. First double Beltran 3. First triple Reyes 4. First home run Delgado 5. First stolen base Reyes 6. First baserunner caught stealing/picked off Chavez 7. First guy to hit into a double-play LoDuca 8. First batter to strike out Delgado 9. First fielder to commit an error Valentin 10. First guy to score a run Reyes 11. First guy to drive in a run Delgado 12. First Met player to field a batted ball Glavine 13. First Met to draw a walk Beltran 14. First Met relief pitcher to make an appearance Heilman 15. First Met to reach base on an error Ben Johnson 16. First winning Met pitcher Glavine 17. First losing Met pitcher Hernandez 18. First Met to throw a wild pitch Hernandez 19. First Met to be hit by a pitch Wright 20. First Met pitcher to plunk an opposing batter Schowenweiss

On one hand, it would take an awful lot of explaining if they spend all this money then let Zambrano walk. On the other hand, he'll command a scary contract for a pitcher. 7 years and $140M would probably be needed to get it done; I doubt he settles for "only" what Zito got. I still think you have to do it. No pitcher's arm comes with a money-back guarantee -- which explains why Zambrano wants a deal done now -- but if you want to keep a pitcher like Zambrano then at some point you quit the posturing and open your wallet.

Keep in mind also that Park closed for Korea in the WBC, so he is a viable bullpen option as well.

Seo took too many things for granted and wound up pitching his way out of the rotation that spring. I didn't agree with it, but Seo didn't help his case any. He also didn't have more quality playoff starts than his competition combined. I'm assuming that Maine will have to be spectaculaly awful or hurt to lose his spot. We outbid other teams for Park and Sosa, so anybody who claims them on waivers if they get DFA'd will pay them more than they were willing to offer them in free agency. It's probably not that likely, and even if it does happen we'd get back money they wouldn't be earning while pitching in New Orleans. So I don't see any reason to factor in options when making the rotation; just get the best five out there. I think it's safe to assume, given the multitude of options, that Park would have to pitch well for the incentives to kick in.

Petit was indeed terrible last year, but at 22 I think it's too early to call him a bust. John Maine is a good example of a pitcher who looked promising initially (maybe never as highly regarded as Petit, but somebody the Orioles were hoping would pan out), saw his stock plummet over a season, then rebounded nicely. And sometimes pitchers need more time than fans are willing to give them. Adam Wainwright was a very highly regarded prospect in the Braves system a few years ago, to the point that somebody making a similar list to this one on John Sickels' blog last month listed him as a bust even though his current team would not have won a World Series without him. I wouldn't be surprised if Escobar (naturally assuming no injuries) finally gets a full year in the majors this year with the Nats. He may even do something with it. But I do remember some site projecting him as a "future All-Star," and that didn't quite work out. I thought the luster was off by the time of the trade. He'd been doing fine in AAA early in 01, then came up for two weeks when Payton got hurt and promptly forgot how to hit, then didn't hit much when he returned to Norfolk. I was OK with selling while there was still value. My impression, from looking at the Baseball America archive of top 100 prospects a while back just for fun, was that I recognized about half the names. Some of the guys at the top of the lists are well known, and some aren't. So from a dealing perspective, I'd probably weigh a prospect as about half what I perceive his upside to be, being more conservative the further away they are from the majors.

I'd have to autodraft if it was the weekend before the 30th, so I'd prefer the 30th.

Edgy DC wrote: There's buzz on Trachsel going with St. Louis and some other buzz on him going with Houston, both of whom still have holes in their rotation. Signing Trachsel is seen in some way as bolstering the Astros prospects for a return by Roger Clmeens, who recently told New York reporters, "When you don't have the opportunity to go to the playoffs and have a chance to win, it's a waste of time for me. At this stage and point in my life and career, that's all you're looking for." So maybe whoever gets him will get a full season out of him. Clemens evidently wasn't thinking that last year, when he sat out two and a half months only to watch his team fall short by a game when all was said and done. He's hard to take seriously. The Nats were also interested in Trachsel. He'd be their #2, which tells you everything about Washington you really need to know. So does the Losers Lounge have a plush couch, big screen hi-def, and a pool table?

I'll go Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Perez, Sosa.

Frayed Knot wrote: Cliff in LF, Soriano in CF, & Jacque Jones in RF has all the makings of one really, really bad defensive OF. Jones is a very good fielder, or at least was last time I checked. Soriano has the legs for center, but good speed doesn't guarantee good defense (see Cedeno, Roger). Floyd's D depends on the health of his legs. I wouldn't expect much, granted, but they might be better than most people think.

I do think Randolph has earned a raise. I don't know any specifics on the negotiations, though, and this is something that didn't need to be resolved yesterday. I'm perfectly willing to assume for the time being that this will be resolved to everybody's satisfaction eventually.

Everybody's an optimist in January. But Garcia's not a sure bet to rebound, Victorino as a full-time rightfielder doesn't scare me, and Eaton might not be an upgrade for their AAA rotation. I don't see how they make up twelve games on us.

iramets wrote: Oh, they can. All that has to happen is for him to have three or four off-years in a row, Well hey, if that happens the Phillies don't come within ten games of us the rest of the decade! I like it already!

I really don't see how anybody who's looked at their stats over the past three years could ask that question. At the very least, the Mets will get significantly more offense from left field than they got last year. I'm not certain the Mets can get more than 350 AB's from Alou, but I don't doubt that he'll hit when he plays.

You're going to see fewer and fewer high-profile young guys hit the open market. The benefits generally outweigh the risks for both sides.

Nymr83 wrote: the Braves have signed ex-Pirate Craig Wilson for 1 year and $2 million dollars. I still don't like their trade, but it makes alot more sense now. Wilson, who is 29, hit pretty well for Pit last year, but was a bust sitting the Yankee bench. his overall line was .251/.314/.446, his 2005 line was .264/.387/.421 in ~250 PA. his 6-year career line is .265/.354/.480 with a 115 OPS+. He's not the hitter LaRoche is, but its a good signing. That's great value. For that price he'd have made an excellent platoon with Green, and could conceivably have beaten him out. I don't think he got enough AB's with the Yanks to get going, so I wouldn't make anything negative out of his time in the Bronx. I still don't like the LaRoche trade either, but adding Wilson should keep the Braves from sliding backwards. I don't see them moving forwards any, though.

After looking at Lillibridge's numbers, he does have excellent potential as a leadoff hitter down the road. This makes the deal more palatable for Atlanta, but he's still two years away. So maybe they'll be the D-Rays with a couple of good prospects.