smg58
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Everything posted by smg58
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The basics of the deal (according to AP) are apparently these: This year: $8.5M signing bonus, plus $6.5M salary the next three years: $16M 2014: $17M or $3M buyout The signing bonus is prorated for the purposes of evaluating the luxury tax threshold, but Bay is getting $15M from the Mets this year. So the reports of a heavily backloaded contract were greatly exaggerated. The option vests with 600 PA in 2013 or 500 PA in both 2012 and 2013.
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The Mets bench, as it currently looks, is a little too left-handed. Carter and Cora are lefties, and Pagan hits better from the left side. They do need a righthanded bat, certainly one who can play first base, and possibly one who can play third and maybe second as well. Third base might not be a necessity if they're willing to give Murphy some games there -- if nothing else, the Mets would maximize Murphy's trade value next year if teams think he can hit well enough to play third without hurting them defensively. Otherwise, the Mets should take a look at somebody like Ron Belliard. He hits lefties well, can play any infield position, and with the market for second baseman being so depressed, he's likely to come cheap. If the Mets do sign Delgado, Murphy could still compete with Carter for one bench spot, but he'd better be prepared to play the outfield again. With the depressed market for second baseman, the Mets should take a look at Ron Belliard. He hits lefties well and can play any infield position
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Pagan has a career OPS of .805 against righthanded pitching, while Francoeur's career OPS against righties is .710. The splits are more or less inverted against lefties (.717 vs. .827). It looks like an obvious platoon to me, but we'll see how things play out. Neither guy is perfect, but we can get at least average production out of right field, and we're covered if one of them tanks.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-bay-deal-and-the-time-value-of-money Fangraphs has an interesting article on Bay and the value of backloaded contracts. The conclusion is there's no way of doing the math that would make the Mets' offer less than the Sox' alleged offer.
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Choose your preferred high risk/high reward former ace
smg58 replied to Mex17's topic in New York Mets Talk
If you're going for upside, go for the most upside. Sheets. -
Johnson barely got more than Cora. It will be interesting to see how Uribe fares in comparison.
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Carlos Zambrano? (Split from Francesa is fat at 2 p.m.)
smg58 replied to metirish's topic in New York Mets Talk
Zambrano's a solid pitcher who happens to not be worth his contract. This should limit what the Cubs can ask for in return, or at least limit what the Mets should willingly give up. I'm guessing he'd be more amenable to a deal with a National League team than an AL team, as he's a very good hitting pitcher, but that's speculation on my part. A deal that involved Castillo and Perez would be payroll-neutral, and then you could discuss another player. Our recent bullpen signings might make Sean Green expendable, for example. I'd be against taking on significant payroll while also giving up a top prospect and creating a positional need that would require additional money to fill, though; I like Zambrano, but not that much. -
Tough to say. Pagan should probably start in right against righthanded pitching; whether he will or not remains an open question. And we will need a defensive sub in left regardless. I'd be open to dealing him if somebody offers a starting outfielder's price for him, but if not, I think he has more than enough value as a fourth outfielder to justify keeping him around.
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I buy the argument that fly balls carry further in the more enclosed CitiField than they did in Shea, where the prevailing winds blew in from center and from left. I wouldn't be too quick to discount the home/road splits from last year, as they're the only hard data we have to go with so far. There's simply no evidence that opposing teams had any difficulty hitting home runs in Citi last year, and lots of evidence that the Mets had problems hitting home runs everywhere. I'll believe that Citi limits home runs when evidence to that effect emerges, but I don't share BML's confidence that it will.
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Like I said a while ago, people seem to have already forgotten that CC Sabathia sat on an enormous offer for more than a month last offseason. A few people questioned his desire to play for the Yankees and whether he was worth the trouble, but it was simply a business decision that ultimately paid off in the form of a bigger deal. There was really no reason to think he was motivated by anything other than the desire for an even bigger contract, and there's no reason to think differently about Bay. Hell, Matt Holliday has been sitting on an offer from St. Louis, after many people reported that he loved playing there.
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Holliday's month-by-month OPS breakdown (not counting October): April .648 May .872 June .814 July (18 games with Oakland) 1.026 July (8 games with St. Louis) 1.490 August .963 September .901 Obviously he had a bad April, for which there could be any number of explanations beyond switching to a more difficult league (playing with a minor injury, adjusting to unfamiliar pitchers, adjusting to not playing his home games at 5000 feet, simply being off form for a month, even a statistical fluke). But he hit fine in Oakland afterward, and was already starting to sizzle when he got traded. Regardless, the initial impressions he made with both clubs couldn't have been more different, and that has clearly affected people's perceptions of him.
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In theory, Escobar's arm is more likely to hold up to 65 innings of bullpen work than 200 innings of starting. I don't know if it always works that way in practice. I do know that it's easier to make a reliever out of a starter during the season than the other way around, so if they commit Escobar to the pen in the spring they'd better stick with it. The contract does include some starters' incentives, so the Mets are keeping the door open at least.
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I'd give six years to Holliday before I'd give five to Bay. But it's not clear that either is priced beyond a reasonable range just yet. Much like Teixeira last year, I'm not sure I'd trust the Yankees when they say they aren't interested.
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The bizarre thing about all the money going to relievers so far this offseason is that there is currently no obvious taker for Jose Valverde's services.
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RA Dickey close to deal with Mets. soon to be Memories of ?
smg58 replied to a topic in New York Mets Talk
I can see him providing us with two or three games of entertainment throwing the knuckleball. And the Mets might even win one of those games. Otherwise, he's just roster depth, nothing to get excited about or to burn Omar in effigy over. -
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The Braves do have Diaz and McLouth. They also have Jordan Schafer, who didn't hit in his first crack at the majors and then got hurt. They might make first base a higher priority than the outfield, but I'm not sure.
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Melky is a paragon of mediocrity; he'd be nobody on any other team and will be just that for Atlanta. Arodys Vizcaino has long-term upside, but a lot can happen before he gets to the bigs. Dunn could be a very good reliever if he cuts down on the walks. At face value, it definitely hurts the Braves over the short-term. But I'm not at all convinced that Vazquez will fare any better this time around in the Bronx. So the Yankees are now definitely in the market for a left fielder, and the Braves have some money to pursue another bat as well. Is anybody still wondering why Bay and Holliday were waiting around?
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Bay's not taking less from anybody. He has the right to see if somebody jumps into the bidding, and in the meantime he's working under the assumption that the Mets believe they need him at least as much as he thinks he needs them. Last year Yankee fans spent a month complaining about Sabathia taking his time to respond to a far more generous offer than what Bay's getting. People questioned whether he really wanted to play for them, and whether he was worth the trouble. CC wound up signing for even more than what the Yankees initially offered. Presumably Yankee fans are no longer complaining. And they're presumably not complaining about the eight years and $180M given to a slightly above average (assuming UZR and +/- have some merit) defensive first baseman capable of an OPS+ close to 150. A more consistently (at least over the last three years) above average defensive left fielder capable of an OPS+ close to 140 is waiting for a better offer than 5 years and $75M, and people think he's going to be overpaid. Am I missing something?
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Darren Oliver appears headed to Texas for a year and $3.5M, plus a possible option. Coco Crisp is getting $5M plus an option from the A's.
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I agree. I wonder if there's one Mets source doing all the talking, or whether the whole damn front office has diarrhea of the mouth.
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And Yankeee Stadium could make Johnson's power numbers reappear in a hurry.
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He does seem like a good guy. I'm rooting to be wrong about him as a player.
