nymr83

Heilman is coming off a terrible year as a reliever. He has a history of being equally terrible as a starter. Anyone can say "I want to start" but he has no credibility to say "I deserve to start." If the Mets can get anyone useful for him they should jump at it.

They already try to fool around with the early season schedule, but they end up with sunny skies in Cleveland while the Indians are playing in Texas and snow in the 2nd week when the Indians come home. I think they just shouldn't worry about weather in April, theres plenty of time to make games up.

I'd hate to shorten the already too short 5 game series. The shorter a series is the more likely the lesser team will win it, or the team with the best 1 or 2 starters will win it instead of the team with the more balanced rotation. I'd rather see the first round expanded to 7 games, with an appropriate penalty for the wild card team (less home games being the best one I can think of.) But if you're going to add games to the playoffs you need to cut days somewhere, whether its travel days during the playoffs or days during the regular season (156 game schedule or scheduled doubleheaders on 3 home dates for each team.) The regular season needs to end by about September 25th every year, not October 3rd.

the owners would never go for moving their cash cow to rural upstate NY every year

I highly approve of MetBot's placement of Heilman.

I might have voted for Cliff Lee.

wow board-drama. and steve can't even keep it on the board. hey steve, if this place is so bad that you have to complain about it elsewhere, why are you still here?

I haven't been reading as religiously since the season ended, what did Steve Jeter Rogers say that prompted this poll? i dislike him because he's a yankee.

How do you guys feel about pursuing Trevor Hoffman? He and the Padres aren't speaking (they made a lowball offer and then withdrew even that and refuse to speak to him) and he's probably one of the few talented relievers amenable to a short deal. i know he's OLD, but what if its just for a year with an option?

FireJoeMorgan.com is shutting down, a big loss for anyone who appreciates criticism of shitty journalism/anouncing.

Gregg is nothing special. Take away the "closer" label and he's a middle of the road reliever. The Marlins are smart to not want to pay a guy like that and instead get a prospect for him.

Victory!

thats not good news

Alou was a good gamble that didn't pay off in 2008, but to bring him back for 2009 he'd need to accept that he's not option A (because there'd better be a better option in place) and that his playing time won't depend only on his own health but on the health and production of the guy(s) in front of him. He'd also need to accept an appropriate salary for that role. He probably has more to offer a small-market team that sees some upside in a small investment and can offer a starting job because its worth the risk to them.

All-Caps thread titles are annoying. They're more annoying when they are nothing more than a WFAN-caller-style trade proposal about random players that you'd like to see here

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE... to get you to not use ALL CAPS in starting a pointless trade speculation thread

="Benjamin Grimm":2r8jsv3a]Dale Sveum got a vote? For managing 13 games?[/quote:2r8jsv3a] Palmiero. Gold Glove. These guys just shouldn't have ballots. OlerudOwned Nov 12 2008 10:26 PM Give them a break, they just moved the thing off of geocities. Frayed Knot Nov 13 2008 01:08 PM ="Nymr83":340zi3t0]="Benjamin Grimm":340zi3t0]Dale Sveum got a vote? For managing 13 games?[/quote:340zi3t0] Palmiero. Gold Glove. These guys just shouldn't have ballots.[/quote:340zi3t0] Except that gold gloves are a coaches & managers ballot. Can't blame the writers for those. Edgy DC Nov 13 2008 01:21 PM Don't knock him off that high horse. It's a long way down. soupcan Nov 13 2008 01:59 PM Oh, snap.

="John Cougar Lunchbucket":2c8hgooe]Jerry finishes 5th and last among Manuels. If you ever wanna go blind, check out the officials announcement at the BBWA site: [url:2c8hgooe]http://www.baseballwriters.org/awards/2008/2008_NL_manager.html[/url:2c8hgooe][/quote:2c8hgooe] my eyes are closed and i'm still seeing yellow. fire your web designer. G-Fafif Nov 12 2008 01:37 PM You ain't kidding! Can I send Jack O'Donnell my optometry bills? Benjamin Grimm Nov 12 2008 01:57 PM Dale Sveum got a vote? For managing 13 games? seawolf17 Nov 12 2008 02:12 PM I'm surprised it doesn't start playing a midi file as soon as you open the page. Hey, BBWAA, 1997 called and they want their cutting-edge Web design back. metirish Nov 12 2008 02:15 PM They pay someone for this? http://www.baseballwriters.org/ Edgy DC Nov 12 2008 02:19 PM How long do you think that message board has been "(to come)"? metsmarathon Nov 12 2008 02:21 PM well, no wonder they don't like recognizing the internet guys... their technical sophistication must be foreign and disconcerting to the paper-based bbwaa members A Boy Named Seo Nov 12 2008 02:28 PM ="seawolf17":20raxvdr]I'm surprised it doesn't start playing a midi file as soon as you open the page. Hey, BBWAA, 1997 called and they want their cutting-edge Web design back.[/quote:20raxvdr] Hilarious. Nymr83 Nov 12 2008 02:29 PM ="Benjamin Grimm":2r8jsv3a]Dale Sveum got a vote? For managing 13 games?[/quote:2r8jsv3a] Palmiero. Gold Glove. These guys just shouldn't have ballots. OlerudOwned Nov 12 2008 10:26 PM Give them a break, they just moved the thing off of geocities. Frayed Knot Nov 13 2008 01:08 PM ="Nymr83":340zi3t0]="Benjamin Grimm":340zi3t0]Dale Sveum got a vote? For managing 13 games?[/quote:340zi3t0] Palmiero. Gold Glove. These guys just shouldn't have ballots.[/quote:340zi3t0] Except that gold gloves are a coaches & managers ballot. Can't blame the writers for those. Edgy DC Nov 13 2008 01:21 PM Don't knock him off that high horse. It's a long way down. soupcan Nov 13 2008 01:59 PM Oh, snap.

I think the Marlins REALLY want to call up McPherson to play 1st or 3rd, he hit like 40 homers in AAA last year.

I'm glad Arnold pulled this one out.

]And when is the last time you remember hearing simple but respectful applause for an opposing starter when he was removed mid-inning? That was routine in the '50s and into the '70s. whether this was ever true or not i don't know, but if its gone you can blame the clubs that start playing "hit the road jack" and similiar things over the PA system before you blame the fans.

well we knew they were idiots. the ballot should be taken away from anyone who voted for an ineligible player, voted for Palmiero's gold glove, or voted for a yankee.

]But Pelfrey WAS given the job in 07, and it turned out to be a year too early. I'm worried that a similar mistake will be made with Jon Niese. If he'd spent '07 in the minors maybe '08 would have been a sucky learning-curve year in the majors for him, theres really no way of knowing.

do the Mets seriously have anything to do with this movie?

="G-Fafif":2xmtej86] Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.[/quote:2xmtej86] I think he's grading them, so you'll probably get a better grade that way. Kong76 Nov 09 2008 01:07 PM Here's my first quick swing, I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ... Santana Wright Beltran J Reyes Delgado Pelfrey Perez Tatis Church Maine Easley Murphy Smith Schneider Feliciano Wagner Schoeneweis Castro Castillo Sanchez Heilman Evans Stokes Chavez P Martinez Pagan Figueroa Vargas Ayala Cancel Frayed Knot Nov 09 2008 07:32 PM ]I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ... We may cajole, browbeat or humiliate you into changing your vote but no one will change it for you. And besides, your list is closer to the overall consensus than anyone's. That said, you may want to explain how you have Feliciano with his 24 ER, 57 Hits & 26 BBs ranked ahead of Wagner and his 12, 32 & 10 in almost the same amount of IPs (53 v 47) Kong76 Nov 10 2008 04:18 AM I saw a couple of things I'd change after posting it, I'll humiliate myself thank you. Feel free to browbeat. As for Wagner, why is everyone ignoring his IDL factor? Edgy DC Nov 10 2008 07:43 AM Italian Drama League? Internet Dating Lapse? Inconceivieably Dead Leftarm? Gwreck Nov 10 2008 08:06 AM Inconvenient (trip to the) Disabled List? Kong76 Nov 10 2008 03:47 PM Gwreck's is better, mine was I Don't Like'im. Frayed Knot Nov 10 2008 05:09 PM Well here's where our consensus sits at the moment after 13 lists plus our PotG results: 30 - Santana 29 - Wright 28 - Beltran 27 - Reyes 26 - Delgado 25 - Pelfrey 24 - Perez 23 - Tatis 22 - Maine 21 - Church 20 - Wagner 19 - Schneider 18 - Murphy 17 - Easley 16 - Smith 15 - Schoeneweis 14 - Castillo 13 - Castro 12 - Feliciano 11 - Sanchez 10 - Chavez 9 - Heilman 8 - Stokes 7 - Martinez 6 - Evans 5 - Pagan 4 - Figueroa 3 - Ayala 2 - Vargas 1 - Alou Received votes but fell short: Cancel Casanova Anderson A Reyes Sosa Shut out: Aguila Armas Clark Knight Kunz R. Martinez Molina Muniz Niese Nixon Parnell Phillips Rincon Wise A couple of places on the big board are close and could change a bit on account of revisisions while others are pretty much set in stone at this point. Elster88 Nov 10 2008 06:29 PM What's the deadline for submission? Frayed Knot Nov 10 2008 08:26 PM Nothing specific. We tend to not wrap things up until conversation starts to peter out and the list is as set as its going to be - although we are kind of reaching that point. Edgy DC Nov 11 2008 07:27 AM I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me. John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 11 2008 07:41 AM ="Edgy DC":36ifpmno]I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.[/quote:36ifpmno] One of the great mysteries of the year was his non-reappearance. We saw an awful lot of Cancel, and enough of Molina to assume neither one was going to out-hit Casanova. That said, the very fact that he was not given another chance sorta makes whatever small case Cancel has to be his superior. m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 12:50 PM after an extended period of inactivity, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been dusted, appropriately lubricated, and finally activated. m.e.t.b.o.t. has manipulated the win percentage data from the 2008 baseball season and, implementing a fancy new bit of mechanical programming and intricately crafted, steampunked sprocketry, has calculated the rankings for the 2008 new york metropolitan baseball players. the list is as follows. 30 Carlos Beltran 29 David Wright 28 Johan Santana 27 Carlos Delgado 26 Jose Reyes 25 Mike Pelfrey 24 Oliver Perez 23 Fernando Tatis 22 John Maine 21 Damion Easley 20 Ryan Church 19 Brian Schneider 18 Joe Smith 17 Daniel Murphy 16 Duaner Sanchez 15 Pedro Martinez 14 Billy Wagner 13 Luis Castillo 12 Claudio Vargas 11 Angel Pagan 10 Moises Alou 9 Endy Chavez 8 Jorge Sosa 7 Ramon Castro 6 Robinson Cancel 5 Pedro Feliciano 4 Brian Stokes 3 Nicholas Evans 2 Scott Schoeneweis 1 Marlon Anderson 0 Ramon Martinez -1 Aaron Heilman -2 Argenis Reyes -3 Carlos Muniz -4 Raul Casanova -5 Nelson Figueroa -6 Trot Nixon -7 Brandon Knight -8 Luis Ayala -9 Brady Clark -10 Robert Parnell -11 Tony Armas Jr. -12 Gustavo Molina -13 Ricardo Rincon -14 Abraham Nunez -15 Andy Phillips -16 Edward Kunz -17 Jonathon Niese -18 Chris Aguila -19 Matt Wise this is performed via a modification of an earlier graphical methodology attempted by human poster metsmarathon. m.e.t.b.o.t. has streamlined and vastly improved the implementation of this methodology. the graphical results are depicted below. a description of the methodology will be forthcoming. m.e.t.b.o.t. requires significant rewinding after posting images, as it requires significant mechanical effort to appropriately arrange pixels into something which humans might have a chance of comprehending visually. John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 18 2008 12:59 PM Heilman doesn't rate? Wow! Look at Tatis! Look at Show! Look at Alou! Dig Joe Smith-over-Wagner! I love m.e.t.b.o.t. metirish Nov 18 2008 01:04 PM I can see now why Schoeneweis and Feliciano are still in Minaya's plans , excellent work metbot. Nymr83 Nov 18 2008 02:33 PM I highly approve of MetBot's placement of Heilman. Edgy DC Nov 18 2008 02:42 PM And I of his placement of Argenis Reyes. Gwreck Nov 18 2008 03:26 PM The shocker to me is Jorge Sosa. Was it the 4-1 W-L record for Sosa that put him so high? m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 03:36 PM m.e.t.b.o.t. wonders if the graphic shows up. can any human poster verify this? essentially, what m.e.t.b.o.t. has done is determined a likely maximum value of win percentage added would be for both hitters and pitchers, based upon data reaching back into the 1970's. the yearly leaders in win percentage added ranged from about 6 up to a maximum of 12 for performance enhanced human barry bonds. the typical second place win percentage leader ranged from 5.5 to about 8. m.e.t.b.o.t. determined, using convenience and simplicity as a primary factor, that 7.5 win percentage added would make for a reasonable expected maximum, which works well with an expected maximum plate appearances of 750. and so, a rate was determined that for every 100 plate appearances, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best batter. for pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t applied the same methodology. the yearly leaders in pitching ranged between 5.5 and 6.5, for the most part. the sole outlier was dwight gooden in 1984, with a remarkable 9.0 wpa. interestingly, despite the total innings pitched of top pitchers decreasing during the previous 30-40 years, the maximum wpa has remained fairly static. m.e.t.b.o.t. selected 6.5 as the reasonable expected maximum win percentage added for pitchers, which works very well with an expected maximum innings pitched of 250. therefore, for every 33.1 innings pitched, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best pitcher. with 250 innings pitched, a pitcher in the national league would expect nearly 100 plate appearances, as evidenced by johan santana's 81 plate appearances in 234.1 innings pitched. if the best pitcher were capable of being the best hitter, he would be expected to have 7.5 wpa in 250 ip + 100 pa. m.e.t.b.o.t hopes that this all makes sense to human crane pool forum participants. the terminal m.e.t.b.o.t. is utilizing to communicate these 2008 rankings and associated methodology is undergoing a forced reboot. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. will resume discussion later this evening. G-Fafif Nov 18 2008 05:53 PM Robinson Cancel sends m.e.t.b.o.t. a glass of 3-in-One. Edgy DC Nov 18 2008 07:10 PM I got the graphic. Reconsider Raul, m.e.t.b.o.t. m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 09:11 PM unfortunately, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to reconsider single players; m.e.t.b.o.t. can only reevaluate methodologies and perform recalculations. m.e.t.b.o.t. has performed a cursory review of the methodology used to arrive at the above listed rankings for 2008 and m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that raul casanova is appropriately ranked relative to his teammates. in approximately 61 plate appearances, raul casanova contributed -0.35 wpa. based upon the current methodology whereby 1 inning pitched is considered equivalent to 3 plate appearances, there are 32 players who played more than raul casanova. to outrank a player with more playing time, raul casanova would have to significantly outperform that player. based on these calculations as performed by m.e.t.b.o.t., raul casanova has outperformed only one player - nelson figueroa, with -1.25 WPA in 1.50 time units (3*IP + PA) the series of diagonal lines in the picture show, essentially equivalent win percentages for the purpose of ranking. as can be seen in the lower left corner, brian stokes, nick evans, and scott schoeneweis all have approximately the same equivalency (0.80, 0.74, and 0.73, respectively) the updated picture below shows raul casanova, and those teammates immediately above and below him in equivalency. equivalency is defined by where that diagonal line intersects the y-axis, and is determined by the formula: WPA + [ ( 3*IP + PA ) / 100 ] = equivalency. this is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attempt at mimicking wins above replacement, or win shares, or the like. modifying the relationship between playing time and win percentages is the most straightforward means of altering the ranking methodology. this can be approximated by varying the slope of the diagonal lines. as can be imagined, the proximity of those players directly behind raul casanova in equivalency implies that as you alter the relationship, you either lift nelson figueroa or trot nixon above raul casanova. nelson figueroa had a lower wpa in more playing time, while nixon had a higher wpa in less playing time, yet raul casanova was slightly ahead of each of them in equivalency. in fact, there is no way to draw a line on this graph which would have raul casanova and 29 other players on its positive side. even drawing an imaginary line up and to the right from casanova so as to exclude the cluster of billy wagner, moises alou and robinson cancel yields 31 better metropolitans. based on the rule of 3 ip = 1 plate appearance, raul casanova does not merit placement in the top 30 metropolitans of 2008. in fact, modifying this relationship such that 2.5 ip = 1 pa, raul casanova only improves to 33rd, and causing 2 ip = 1 pa brings him up to 32nd. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it fruitful to reevaluate the placement of robinson cancel further. were m.e.t.b.o.t. capable of the emotion, m.e.t.b.o.t. would, however, consider this above exercise very welcome given the recent extended period of inactivity. regarding the rankings of robinson cancel and jorge sosa, despite the apparent statistical inadequacies of their respective performances in 2008, these two players each had positive win percentages added in very little playing time. jorge sosa had 0.48 wpa in 21.7 innings and 2 plate appearances, while robinson cancel had 0.46 wpa in 52 plate appearances. jorge sosa[/url:sg2qqlax] had more good outings than bad outings, and most of his bad outings came in blowouts. his four worst outings had wpa of -0.128, -0.117, -0.108, and -0.078, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.275, 0.172, 0.138, and 0.110. robinson cancel[/url:sg2qqlax] had more bad outings than good outings, as can be expected of any hitter. but when he contributed, his contributions were fairly positive. his four worst games had wpa of -0.214, -0.117, -0.076, and -0.070, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.334, 0.240, 0.170, and 0.84. one further point that m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined may be of potential interest to human cranepoolers. the colored tails leading diagonally down to the positions of the 5 primary starting pitchers in 2008 reflect the impact to their position that their offiensive contributions has had. at the upper right, the tail end of the line, is where the pitcher would place based only on his pitching performance. for instance, johan santana had a wpa of 4.08 in 234.1 innings pitched, but had a wpa of -1.27 in 81 plate appearances. also, if a human poster using mozilla firefox were to right click on an image and select the "view image" option, a much larger, more viewable image is available to be seen. this image can then potentially be zoomed into even further, to better aid comprehension. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to confirm whether this is applicable using internet explorer. Edgy DC Nov 18 2008 09:24 PM Two methodology issues to consider: 1) One inning isn't equal to three plate appearances, but rather to three outs. In fact, it should be equal to about two thirds of three outs --- two outs. 2) The third out is a question of defense, which puts Casanova in positive terriotry. Positive territory, m.e.t.b.o.t.! m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 10:07 PM m.e.t.b.o.t. has no source for defensive input. for all of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s intents and purposes, defense is entirely the result of the pitches thrown, not the fielders to which the pitches are hit. m.e.t.b.o.t. recognizes the inherent flaw in this, but there is no data source avaiable which can provide a remedy within the win percentage framework. m.e.t.b.o.t. would be a very happy emotionless springwound contraption indeed if one day someone were capable of producing such a data source. ... how would human poster edgy dc compare the relative playing time of johan santana and jose reyes, defense aside? a strict perspective would be to consider plate appearances for and against, in which case johan santana would have an edge of approximately 1053 to jose reyes' 754. IP X 3 + H + BB should approximate total plate appearances against, give or take gidps, errors, and csa's. that gives santana 972, plus his 82 plate appearances for 1053. scaling those plate appearances against by 2/3, santana has 648, plus 82 plate appearances for, for 702. applying this playing time adjustment to all pitchers actually causes raul casanova to drop from 35th to 36th, as nelson figueroa's increased number of batters faced per inning pitched gives him a boost. if m.e.t.b.o.t. were to go to the extreme step of granting this increased 1/3 playing time to the batters, then raul casanova improves all the way up to 34th place. raul casanova amassed neither sufficient playing time nor positive contribution of win percentage to warrant inclusion in the top 30 players as determined by m.e.t.b.o.t. raul casanova participated in 13 games as a catcher. while his defense, according to baseballperspective.com was exemplary in those 13 games, rating 7% better than average, that, too, does not appear to be sufficient to escalate him into the top 30 players. worth noting, too, is the 11% better than average defensive rate posted by argenis reyes in 27 games at second base, and marlon anderson's 34% better than average defense at first base in 6 games, and 11% better than average defense in 25 games in left field. raul casanova would have to pass these two position players, along with averagely defensive ramon martinez to make it into the top 30, unless the 5 pitchers ahead of him were to fall by the wayside. Gwreck Nov 18 2008 11:38 PM So Beltran came in first under the Metbot system, without even factoring in defense? Wow.