Benjamin Grimm

Upcoming schedule for Mets and Nationals: MetsNationalsSeptember 8At WashingtonMetsSeptember 9At WashingtonMetsSeptember 10At AtlantaSeptember 11At AtlantaAt MiamiSeptember 12At AtlantaAt MiamiSeptember 13At AtlantaAt MiamiSeptember 14MiamiAt PhiladelphiaSeptember 15MiamiAt PhiladelphiaSeptember 16MiamiAt PhiladelphiaSeptember 17MiamiSeptember 18New York (AL)MiamiSeptember 19New York (AL)MiamiSeptember 20New York (AL)MiamiSeptember 21AtlantaBaltimoreSeptember 22AtlantaBaltimoreSeptember 23AtlantaBaltimoreSeptember 24At CincinnatiSeptember 25At CincinnatiPhiladelphiaSeptember 26At CincinnatiPhiladelphiaSeptember 27At CincinnatiPhiladelphiaSeptember 28CincinnatiSeptember 29At PhiladelphiaAt AtlantaSeptember 30At PhiladelphiaAt AtlantaOctober 1At PhiladelphiaAt AtlantaOctober 2WashingtonAt MetsOctober 3WashingtonAt MetsOctober 4WashingtonAt Mets

A win today doesn't mean that the lead won't be back down to two or three games a week and a half from now. But Harvey hasn't exactly been a sure-thing this year anyway. The Mets have lost 40% of the games he's started. Their record in games that he's started isn't significantly better than it is in games started by others. (I do realize that may be more of a reflection on the "others" than on Harvey.)

In the abstract, I'd love to see him stay but I realize that practical considerations make that impractical. Instead, trade Harvey this winter for the best young slugging outfielder they can get. Put him in the outfield with Conforto and Granderson, with Lagares and Cuddyer in reserve and they'll be in pretty good shape.

I'd say the first sign of trouble happened a few days ago.

With today's update from Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds for the NL East are now at 90.3%, and 0.1% for the wild card. They're at 9.4% to win the World Series. World Championship odds for current division leaders. The Mets have somehow moved ahead of both Missouri teams. Dodgers 18.5% Blue Jays 15.6% Astros 14.0% Mets 9.4% Cardinals 9.3% Royals 9.2% NL East Tragic Number update: Phillies 2, Braves 4, Marlins 6, Nationals 21.

The fact that the Mets would have to make a preemptive offer is the main thing that makes resigning him more difficult.

Alvarez 0.3 Cespedes 2.5 Conforto 0.8 d'Arnaud 0.5 Goeddel 1 Granderson 0.5 Johnson 0.8 Robles 1 Tejada 0.5 CTorres 1 Wright 1.1

He's been such a presence in the lineup. Even when he's three or four batters away, he's probably on the pitcher's mind. I'm sure he hasn't been this player throughout his career. A player like isn't likely to be traded three times in just a few years. But the Mets sure got him at the right time. Hopefully he can keep this up for another four to eight weeks!

As the denominator (number of games remaining) continues to decline, the NHOP will have larger and larger fluctuations.

Biggest game of his life. Yes, it is the biggest game of his life. And thanks to him and his agent, he'll be taking the mound surrounded by a big stinky fart cloud. I never liked the Batman stuff for Harvey, but now it seems even more stupid than ever. I think this character is more appropriate:

A very bad Sunday is followed up by a very good Monday, as the Mets draw first blood in their three-game series in DC. Getting swept would have been very very bad, and eliminating that possibility in the very first game was huge. The magic number drops from 23 to 21. The NHOP drops by 22 points, from .442 to .420. The Mets will still be in first place on the morning of Saturday, September 12. Before Monday's win, Baseball Prospectus had the Mets at 84.5% to win the division and 0.3% for the wild card. We'll see later today how much the win over the Nationals improved those odds. DateMets RecordNationals RecordMets LeadMagic NumberGames RemainingNHOPAugust 356-5054-501571140.500August 457-5055-501561120.500August 558-5055-512541100.491August 658-5056-511.5541090.495August 759-5056-522.5521070.486August 859-5157-521.5521050.495August 959-5257-531.5511030.495August 1060-5258-531.5501010.495August 1161-5258-542.548990.485August 1262-5258-553.546970.474August 1363-5258-564.544950.463August 1463-5358-574.543930.462August 1563-5458-584.542910.462August 1663-5558-594.541890.461August 1763-5558-594.541890.461August 1864-5559-594.540870.460August 1964-5660-593.540850.471August 2064-5660-60439840.464August 2165-5660-61537820.451August 2266-5661-61536800.450August 2367-5662-61535780.449August 2468-5662-615.534770.442August 2569-5663-615.533750.440August 2670-5663-626.531730.425August 2771-5664-626.530710.423August 2871-5764-636.529690.420August 2971-5865-635.529670.433August 3072-5866-635.528650.431August 3173-5866-646.526630.413September 173-5966-656.525610.410September 274-5967-656.524590.407September 374-5968-65624580.414September 474-6069-65524560.429September 575-6070-65523540.426September 675-6171-65423520.442September 776-6171-66521500.420

Cespedes 1.5 Conforto 0.75 Flores 2.5 Matz 2 Reed 1 Robles 0.5

I think I'm going to skip this one. I'll even try to avoid knowing what the score is until it's over. My hunch is that Niese will give up some early runs and the Mets will make a futile attempt to scratch back. And I'm not interested in spending three hours watching that. Friday's and Sunday's games were too frustrating; I need to back off a bit. (Yeah, I know, "ya gotta believe" but sadly, right now I don't.) If I eventually find out that the Mets won, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

Yesterday was another very bad day. The lead drops to 4 games and the NHOP rises to .442. After this three-game series with the Nationals ends, the Mets will still be in first place, but by how wide a margin? It will either be 1 game, 3 games, 5 games, or 7 games. In other words, the Mets will have to sweep the Nationals to get their lead back to (roughly) where it was five days ago. DateMets RecordNationals RecordMets LeadMagic NumberGames RemainingNHOPAugust 356-5054-501571140.500August 457-5055-501561120.500August 558-5055-512541100.491August 658-5056-511.5541090.495August 759-5056-522.5521070.486August 859-5157-521.5521050.495August 959-5257-531.5511030.495August 1060-5258-531.5501010.495August 1161-5258-542.548990.485August 1262-5258-553.546970.474August 1363-5258-564.544950.463August 1463-5358-574.543930.462August 1563-5458-584.542910.462August 1663-5558-594.541890.461August 1763-5558-594.541890.461August 1864-5559-594.540870.460August 1964-5660-593.540850.471August 2064-5660-60439840.464August 2165-5660-61537820.451August 2266-5661-61536800.450August 2367-5662-61535780.449August 2468-5662-615.534770.442August 2569-5663-615.533750.440August 2670-5663-626.531730.425August 2771-5664-626.530710.423August 2871-5764-636.529690.420August 2971-5865-635.529670.433August 3072-5866-635.528650.431August 3173-5866-646.526630.413September 173-5966-656.525610.410September 274-5967-656.524590.407September 374-5968-65624580.414September 474-6069-65524560.429September 575-6070-65523540.426September 675-6171-65423520.442

Yeesh. One put bases loaded and Travis GIDPs. Going into the bottom of the ninth. It's extra-innings-game rules now. I may have to stop watching for a while! I can't bear to watch!

Reed gets a big strikeout of Prado to end the seventh. Still 3-2 Mets going into the eighth. Top of the order coming up.

Uh oh... it's Bearclaw!

Some additional Mets runs would be very much appreciated.

Matz leaves with one out in the sixth for a blister or something. Fasten your seatbelts... we're going to the bullpen!

Matz has thrown 77 pitches through five innings. Hopefully he throws a scoreless sixth, but his pitch count may prevent him from pitching the seventh. And that's when things might get scary, as we well know. Am I the only one watching today? I find that hard to believe.

Flores homers to put the Mets on top, and I'm feeling a bit more optimistic!

Mets are down 2-1, Nationals have a comfy lead against the Braves. My optimism for this season has been declining quite a bit since Friday's loss.

I'm totally down with Ken Davidoff's suggestion. It's long been my feeling that the Mets should trade Harvey after the 2016 season, but given recent developments I'm perfectly okay with advancing that to after the 2015 season. I really hope it happens. Ken Davidoff, The New York Post wrote: The Mets have the perfect opening to trade Matt Harvey MIAMI � Down the road, we might look back on what transpired Saturday and realize Matt Harvey did the Mets a favor. The diva right-hander just made it 180 times easier for the Mets, ever aware of how their actions play on the streets, to do what they should have done, anyway, this coming offseason. Yes, it�s time to start working on a Harvey trade. Harvey dropped a cartoon-sized bomb on his employers Saturday, one that will produce consequences both short-term and long-term. In the dispute between Harvey�s agent Scott Boras and the Mets concerning the 26-year-old�s workload, Harvey sided decisively with his representative, refusing to say he would pitch beyond 180 innings this season and even offering that orthopedist James Andrews, who performed Harvey�s 2013 Tommy John surgery, told him personally of that hard, 180-innings threshold Boras first revealed on Friday (and which the Mets dispute). �I hired Dr. Andrews to do my surgery, and I hired Scott, for a reason,� Harvey, who currently has 166�/3 innings pitched on the season, said before Bartolo Colon and the Mets blanked the Marlins, 7-0, at Marlins Park. �That�s to prolong my career and get in the best possible position moving forward.� Hence the Mets have a crisis on their hands. General manager Sandy Alderson, who thought that he had the Harvey-innings situation under control, will meet with Harvey on Monday in Washington and seek resolution. At the moment, though, you wonder a) whether Harvey will suit up at all in the postseason, and how much that hinders the team�s chances, or even c) if this drama will sap the Mets of energy they need merely to qualify for the playoffs. In crisis, the Mets must view opportunity. Until quite recently, too, most of the Mets� fan base seemed enamored with Harvey and willfully blind to his dark side. On Saturday, Harvey couldn�t have showcased his dark side any more prominently. Burning a Mike Piazza jersey on the Citi Field grass would have been subtle by comparison. But Harvey�s personality didn�t magically become a problem overnight. Few have embraced celebrity and its many trappings as quickly as did Harvey, and with that has arrived a high-maintenance personality. Really, what�s most galling about Harvey�s change of heart � his 180, if you will � is that he led the revolt earlier this season against the Mets� six-man starting rotation, a plan designed expressly to help manage the innings of Harvey and his fellow youngsters. Don�t hate on Boras for doing his job as player advocate. It�s Harvey who constructed the Tough Guy narrative, only to jettison it in crunch time. So Harvey, even if he turns back around and retreats from his retreat, has seriously damaged his standing in Flushing. In the baseball industry? Eh. While no club will take the player�s side in this dispute, none would offer a flat �No� on a pitcher who currently owns a 145 ERA+ in those 166?�/3 innings and has three years of control left before free agency. The Mets should go through on this because they have stockpiled enough starting pitching to envision perennial competition without Harvey. Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Jon Niese and Noah Syndergaard fronting a rotation to kick off 2016, with Zack Wheeler working to return midseason? Yup, that�d work � assuming the Mets score runs more like August and September and less like April through July. And the best way to beef up that offense, what with rentals Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe as well as homegrown Daniel Murphy all likely to depart? Use Harvey to get someone impactful in return. How about Colorado outfielder Carlos Gonzalez? Or Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford? Or Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain? Or Twins second baseman Brian Dozier? Just spitballing here; the Mets can do the actual legwork. Alderson owns a pretty good track record when it comes to trades. We have arrived at the scene when the Dark Knight becomes the villain. If the Mets are feeling particularly feisty, they can work to ship Harvey to a small market, a place where media suck-ups and supermodels are in short supply. Or they could be grateful to the big fella for helping everyone see the light.

We'll have to see how he pitches in September, but I'm hoping that Matz gets into that postseason rotation, should there be one.

Well, the Mets didn't immediately reverse Friday night's setback, but Saturday was a good day. Mets won, reducing the magic number to 23 and the NHOP to .426. The Mets can at least be assured of still being in first place when their upcoming three-game series in Washington has concluded. Let's see what today brings. The Mets will open their series in DC with a lead of either 4, 5, or 6 games. If it's 6, I can see being content with just winning one of three games. If it's 4, then taking two of three will be imperative. DateMets RecordNationals RecordMets LeadMagic NumberGames RemainingNHOPAugust 356-5054-501571140.500August 457-5055-501561120.500August 558-5055-512541100.491August 658-5056-511.5541090.495August 759-5056-522.5521070.486August 859-5157-521.5521050.495August 959-5257-531.5511030.495August 1060-5258-531.5501010.495August 1161-5258-542.548990.485August 1262-5258-553.546970.474August 1363-5258-564.544950.463August 1463-5358-574.543930.462August 1563-5458-584.542910.462August 1663-5558-594.541890.461August 1763-5558-594.541890.461August 1864-5559-594.540870.460August 1964-5660-593.540850.471August 2064-5660-60439840.464August 2165-5660-61537820.451August 2266-5661-61536800.450August 2367-5662-61535780.449August 2468-5662-615.534770.442August 2569-5663-615.533750.440August 2670-5663-626.531730.425August 2771-5664-626.530710.423August 2871-5764-636.529690.420August 2971-5865-635.529670.433August 3072-5866-635.528650.431August 3173-5866-646.526630.413September 173-5966-656.525610.410September 274-5967-656.524590.407September 374-5968-65624580.414September 474-6069-65524560.429September 575-6070-65523540.426