Who Would Want to Be a Pitcher in 2017?

[Edgy MD]

Is it me, or has the ball been juiced like nobody's business?

Just a year or two ago, it seemed like we were in the waxing of a pitching-dominant era, and now, 60+ games in, balls are continuing to fly out at a record pace. And it's kind of a silent killer, too, because rather than the top homerun hitters pursuing ever-loftier, eye-popping totals, were just in a situation where everyone is hitting 'em. Or more of 'em. And backend relievers—your Neil Ramirezes, your Josh Edgins, and your Tyler Pills—are just getting massacred.

It's not just us. It's everywhere. Yeah, a lot of it's us, but still.

[Ceetar]

https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-home-run-spike-juiced-ball-testing-reveal-155cd21108bc

[batmagadanleadoff]

Studies say that offense isn't up. but that HR's are. Batters are swinging harder and with more uppercut, hence more HR's, which is the plan. But OTOH, BB's, hits, doubles and triples are down.

So ... more homers ... same run scoring.

[smg58]

If it's the ball, I see no reason why MLB wouldn't just say so. (I also see no reason why anybody would think they were improving the game by doing this, but whatever.) I also don't see why they wouldn't know if something was being done differently.

I'm more concerned that a few people found a way to cheat and not get caught, and just like in the 90s, once other players could see that they gained an edge without any obvious consequences, the temptation to indulge when millions of dollars are at stake became too much to resist.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe it is the ball, but I have my doubts. Everyone was talking about a "juiced ball" in 1987 and we know, in retrospect, what was really happening.

[Edgy MD]

Well, as I note above, it's pretty clearly more than a few people getting over.

As for why MLB wouldn't say so, they really don't ever say so, going back to the Power Spike of 1987. They like to be seen as pure and impartial curators of a naturally evolving game. But there's a new commish who has suggested he'd like to get his hands dirty with taking a look at nature-of-the-game changes, and then jumped back when defenders stepped in.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Maybe it is the ball, but I have my doubts. Everyone was talking about a "juiced ball" in 1987 and we know, in retrospect, what was really happening.

we do?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I do, anyway. It was the dawn of the steroid era. That was the year that Lenny Dykstra, for example, showed up in camp all bulked up, and everyone marveled.

[Ceetar]

meh.

also, home runs plummeted back to 'normal' in 1988.

[Edgy MD]

It wasn't all Lenny. Like this year, it wasn't that big homer hitters hit more, but everybody and his sister hit more. Raffy Santana went from his annual 1 to 5. Terry Pendleton was averaging around three a year and jumped to 12. Wade Boggs seemingly re-invented himself, going from an average of 7 to 24, and then only once more hit as many as 11 again over his long career.

Lenny Dykstra, whose timeline I think we all remember a little differently, went from 8 to 10.

I think 1987 was about rabbit fur in the ball.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I feel like the HR uptick, as noted above coming with a decrease in other traditional offense stats at some level represents effects of the shift game.

[Frayed Knot]

Somebody thinks the ball is juiced. -- http://nypost.com/2017/06/14/the-shocking-juiced-ball-evidence-behind-all-these-homers/

I'll have to read this a bit more thoroughly when I have the time, but his "proof" seems a bit sketchy.

[Frayed Knot]

And not that this small sample sways the evidence in one direction or the other, but Eric Young Jr. has three HRs this season in just 51 ABs (for Anaheim).
The former NYM pinch-running specialist had a total of eight in his career prior to this season (half of them in 2012) and a total of three from 2013-2016, yet currently has two in the last three days.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Somebody thinks the ball is juiced. -- http://nypost.com/2017/06/14/the-shocking-juiced-ball-evidence-behind-all-these-homers/ I'll have to read this a bit more thoroughly when I have the time, but his "proof" seems a bit sketchy.

he's just citing the results of the Ringer post I linked above.

[Ceetar]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-looks-like-the-baseball-is-behind-mlbs-power-surge/

some statcast evidence.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets radio booth just announced that Keon Broxton has hit what is being described as a 489-foot homerun.

[Edgy MD]

KEON BROXTON!

On the pitching side, there have been three immaculate innings in the last eight days.

[Edgy MD]

Thinking of Aaron Judge doinking the ball out of the park, last night, I'm wondering how much of the new power generation can be attributed to the global warming trend.

Hitting always got better during the hot summer months, but now summer comes in late April.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I think the jump in power is multifaceted. In general, players are bigger and stronger than in previous generations. Pitchers, in general, throw harder now. Virtually everyone throws in the low 90s or more. When a hitter connects with a 95 MPH fastball (granted no easing task) it is going to carry. Lastly, there seems to be a major change in the thinking of hitters of recent times. People are swinging harder, trying to hit home runs, with little concern for how often they strike out. There have always been hitters with such a mindset, but it just seems more pervasive in today's game. That is why so many players hit 25 or more home runs while striking out over 100 times and hitting around .250 (or less).

[Edgy MD]

But no changes to the core and seams of the ball?

Because players were HEWJ in 1999.

[MFS62]

I read (forget where) that the average fly ball distance has increased about 5 feet since 2015 (or around then). It doesn't sound like much but adds up to a lot. There's apparently scuttlebutt that the seams on the ball are tighter (not as elevated) this year, thus reducing drag in flight.
More important than reducing drag in flight is that the lower seams make it harder for the pitchers to grip a breaking ball. And once they throw the ball, the lower seams offer less wind resistance, so they break less. See Bernoulli's principle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli%27s_principle
So, its mostly sliders and fastballs and fewer pitches that change the plane of the hitter's swing.
(No, I'm not Jay Hook)
Later