Predictions From Others

[bmfc1]

The pre-season magazines are making their way to our newsstands and CVS's. Where does each one think that the Mets will finish in 2017? When you see one, whether or not you buy the magazine, put the prediction here.

Sporting News Baseball Yearbook: 2nd place, no WC (too many injuries to overcome at one time)
Rotoworld Fantasy Baseball Preview: 2nd place, WC
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: 1st place, 88 wins (WSH with 87)
Fangraphs: 2nd place, 84 wins (6 GB)
Jonah Keri: Vegas odds, 89.5--he says "under" http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/jonah-keris-overunder-bet-picks-for-2017-buy-low-on-the-as-sell-high-on-the-royals/amp/
Lindy's: 2nd place, WC
Baseball Engine Fantasy (something like that): 2nd place, 86 wins (9 GB), no WC
Baseball Weekly: 2d place, 89 wins (1 GB)
Athlon: 2d place, no WC
SI: 2d place, 90 wins, 1 GB, WC, win WC, lose to Cubs in NLDS
Washington Post: 2d place
SB Nation: 2d place
Sports on Earth (Will Leitch): 2d place, 83 wins, no WC
SI: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/29/season-preview-world-series-playoffs-expert-picks-predictions?xid=socialflow_twitter_si
Tim Kurkjian: 2d place, no WC
Hardball Talk: 3 WC picks: http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/03/30/our-2017-predictions-100-guaranteed-to-be-correct-or-your-money-back/
USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/03/30/mlb-2017-predictions-world-series-mvp-cy-young/99840328/
Newsday: https://twitter.com/joe_manniello/status/847597010626674688/photo/1
Mike Puma in the Post: 91-71, 1st place
ESPN: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/SeasonpreviewMLB_2017predictions/2017-mlb-experts-mlb-team-predictions
The Big Lead: http://thebiglead.com/2017/03/31/the-big-lead-2017-major-league-baseball-predictions/
538: WC https://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/
The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/sports/baseball/mlb-opening-day-national-league.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/31/mlb-new-season-predictions-chicago-cubs

Edited February 6, 2017 by Guest

[Frayed Knot]

I find it amusing when folks think themselves able to predict future injuries.

[Centerfield]

I think all of these guys will come in at second place. I mean, it's the exact same and the race wasn't particularly close, so I think it's hard to come out anywhere else.

Unless you believe in Atlanta or Miami.

[Ceetar]

will you update the top with all of them so they're in one place?

Fangraphs, as of this morning, as the Mets tied with the Cardinals for second wild card at 84-78. (6 games out) http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-E

[bmfc1]

Good idea Ceetar. Fangraphs is a moving target but any others will be collected at the top.

[Ceetar]

bmfc1 wrote: Good idea Ceetar. Fangraphs is a moving target but any others will be collected at the top.

I think it's worth throwing in the projection systems, maybe not today's, but at the start of spring or the season. I mean, they're usually more well thought out than random columnist's.

[Edgy MD]

And PECOTA projections, published this morning, like the Mets as 2017 National League East champs.

I don't know what that's worth. Probably not much, but possibly more than Bill Pecota was worth in 1992.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: And PECOTA projections, published this morning, like the Mets as 2017 National League East champs. I don't know what that's worth. Probably not much, but possibly more than Bill Pecota was worth in 1992.

PECOTA's about as solid as projections come these days. 88 wins for the Mets and 87 for the Nationals. If we're going to tabulate these things, PECOTA has to be included or I literally don't care.

[bmfc1]

"will you update the top with all of them so they're in one place?"
I'm doing that by editing the 1st post but the thread stays buried unless I write something like this to bump it up.

[bmfc1]

I'm bumping this because it's been updated at the top and more predictions will be made as the season approaches.

[metirish]

bmfc1 wrote: I'm bumping this because it's been updated at the top and more predictions will be made as the season approaches.

Oh, you've been to CVS then?

[Frayed Knot]

From Sports Illustrated
They suggest taking the Mets for 'Over'

CHICAGO CUBS	96.5
CLEVELAND	93.5
LOS ANGELES NL	92.5
BOSTON	91.5
NEW YORK METS	90.5
WASHINGTON	90.5
ST LOUIS	88.5
HOUSTON	87.5
SAN FRANCISCO	87.5
PITTSBURGH	85.5
SEATTLE	85.5
TEXAS	85.5
TORONTO	85.5
BALTIMORE	84.5
DETROIT	84.5
NEW YORK AL	83.5
KANSAS CITY	81.5
COLORADO	80.5
LOS ANGELES AL	76.5
MIAMI	76.5
TAMPA BAY	75.5
CINCINNATI	73.5
PHILADELPHIA	72.5
ARIZONA	71.5
CHICAGO WS	71.5
MILWAUKEE	71.5
MINNESOTA	70.5
OAKLAND	66.5
SAN DIEGO	64.5

[bmfc1]

bump

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

A sim on Out of the Park baseball gives the Mets 92 wins but 6 back from WAS.

But who knows. They also have the Braves losing 101 and the Orioles 100.

http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/2017/03/29/out-of-the-park-18-sims-the-2017-season/

[Edgy MD]

The pitching just isn't there for the Orioles. And while it's there for the Braves, it's a million years old and liable to cave in at any time. But that's just one possible way it plays out. the better use of sims is to play them out a thousand times and publish the averages. The averages are boring, because folks cluster around the mean, but probably more predictive.

Anyhow, the Mets need a healthy on-base guy, or two even. They need a Trout or a Votto but I'll accept a Nimmo and Conforto if they can make the jump. Too many solo homers makes for a big offense but not necessarily a championship one, winning 9-5 games but losing 3-1 ones.

[Benjamin Grimm]

"America's Line" (not sure who they are, other than that they supply the odds that appear in the Daily News) has the following:

The odds of the Mets winning the World Series is 15-1. Teams ranked ahead of the Mets are Cubs (4-1), Red Sox (5-1), Indians (8-1), Dodgers (10-1), Nationals and Giants (12-1). The Astros are also at 15-1. Yankees are 25-1. The teams with the worst odds are the Reds and Brewers at 200-1.

The over/under for Mets wins is 87.5, tied with the Giants. (I'd take the over for the Mets.) Teams ranked ahead of them are Cubs (96.5), Dodgers and Red Sox (93.5), Indians (92.5), Nationals (91.5), and Astros (90.5). Yankees are 83.5. Marlins are 78.5, Braves are 75.5, and Phillies are 74.5. The Padres have the lowest number, 66.5.

The favorite to win the MVP is Kris Bryant at 2-1. The only Met listed is Yoenis Cespedes at 25-1. Between Bryant and Cespedes are, in order, Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Buster Posey.

Giancarlo Stanton is a 5-1 favorite to lead the majors in homers. Cespedes is 20-1.

[Edgy MD]

2-1 on Bryant is kind of krazy. I'd take the field every time.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. I don't know if that's an option, though.

[bmfc1]

I predict that I won't start this thread in 2018. The excitement of getting the Sporting News Yearbook in late January has changed to "aw crap, here's another one."

[Ceetar]

Ted Berg at For The Win predicts the Mets win the division, lose the NLDS.

[G-Fafif]

bmfc1 wrote: I predict that I won't start this thread in 2018. The excitement of getting the Sporting News Yearbook in late January has changed to "aw crap, here's another one."

This belongs in the 2018 Predictions thread.

[DocTee]

2-1 on Bryant is kind of krazy. I'd take the field every time.

There's nobody between Bryant (2-1) and Cespedes (25-1)?

[ashie62]

The MLB simulation "The Show" has the Mets winning it all.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mets-will-win-2017-world-series-because-our-mlb-the-show-simulation-says-so/

[Benjamin Grimm]

DocTee wrote: 2-1 on Bryant is kind of krazy. I'd take the field every time. There's nobody between Bryant (2-1) and Cespedes (25-1)?

There were a bunch. I didn't feel like typing them all.